High Wind in California, April 13 to 14, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
346 AM PDT Tue Apr 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A disturbance, moving into Great Basin today, will bring a chance
of rain and snow showers to the Sierra Crest on Wednesday;
however, the remainder of the area will remain dry. Winds will
increase Today as the low pressure system moves to the east of the
area. High pressure will then rebuild over the region toward the
weekend and bringing a warming trend to the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Only a few clouds continued to stream across the area this
morning ahead a disturbance that is currently developing over the
Pacific Northwest. With the lack of significant cloud cover over
any winds, temperatures are expected to fall into the 40s this
morning. While the flow aloft remains from a northwesterly to
northerly direction, minimal humidity is expected to enter the
region which will in turn allow for colder overnight lows.
Currently, the disturbance is developing over the Interior Pacific
Northwest and will begin to drop toward the Great Basin during
the day. The jet streams will consolidate during the drop of the
disturbances upper low over California with jet speeds reaching 70
to 80 knots later today. Along with the strengthening jet,
surface pressure gradients from KSFO to KLAS are tightening to 9mb
and trending upward. Therefore, the Wind Advisory will remain in
effect for the Kern Mountains and Deserts as strong winds are
expected during the day and into this evening. Short range models
showing high confidence levels of placing the upper low over the
Great Basin this by this evening.

Model consensus is leaning toward keeping the trajectory of the
upper low east of Reno with dynamic energy swings through the
Sierra Nevada by early Wednesday. Therefore, will expect a surge
of cooler air moving into Central California during the time the
vort max energy swings through the area. Wrap around moisture
(while limited) will join the dynamic and orograpic lift as
precipitation will be possible during the day on Wednesday. Again,
the precipitation will be limited, but, with the cooler air snow
levels could reach down to around 6000 feet. Snow will so be
limited with isolated accumulation up to one or two inches at the
highest levels of the mountain range. A dusting of snow will be
more common for this storm.

Model confidence remains high going into Wednesday night as the
trajectory of the low is moved toward Northern Utah. This
trajectory will allow the dynamic energy to exit the region while
maintaining the jet max over Central California. Therefore, will
expect the continuation of the strong winds through the day on
Wednesday even if not at the surface (ridge top winds remaining
very windy). Ensemble showing signs toward another inside slider
during the weekend with possible stronger winds across Central
California. Will wait until this event reaches the short range
before mentioning any possible precipitation. In the meanwhile,
the current weather pattern will support occasional breezy
conditions through the weekend. By the start of the next work
week, model finally shift the ridge axis over the West Coast to
lower the winds and increase temperatures. The current forecast is
still calling for max temps at both Fresno and Bakersfield to
reach 91 degrees. While the record for Fresno is within reach at
that temperature, Bakersfield’s record will remain safe. At the
moment, Fresno has a 31 percent chance of reaching 91 while
Bakersfield is only at 24 percent.

&&

.AVIATION...
Sfc wind gusting above 35kts after 19Z today over the Kern County
Mountains and across the Mojave Desert. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are forecast to prevail across the central CA interior over the
next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ195-196-198-199.

&&

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