Hail in Texas, April 13 to 14, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
310 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday Night/

A cold front has moved south to near a Jacksonville, to
Shreveport, to El Dorado line, with a surface low centered near
Shreveport and Bossier City. The front will likely stall here for
most of the overnight hours. Convection has been ongoing for most
of the day south of the forecast area. Farther north and west in
our neck of the woods, a strong cap has limited convective
development. However, a few isolated showers have tried to develop
south of Interstate 20 over the last few hours. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are still possible this
evening across Louisiana and East Texas, but most of the model
guidance has backed off convective coverage dramatically, most
likely due to the strong cap. If any storms develop, an isolated
severe threat for large hail and damaging winds will be in play.

After midnight, an increase in warm air advection across the
region should result in widespread showers and thunderstorms
across most of the area. Mid-level lapse rates and instability
should be supportive of a continued threat for isolated severe
storms, with large hail and damaging winds, south of Interstate 20
in the warm sector. The severe weather threat should largely
diminish before sunrise Wednesday morning as instability wanes.

As more convection develops, the effects of the cooler air from
the storms combined with a weak disturbance aloft moving across
the Southern Plains should help to move the front farther south
and eventually south of the forecast area by noon Wednesday. Rain
chances should diminish from northwest to southeast. However, a
fast zonal flow aloft will develop over the region on the southern
periphery of a blocking pattern, which will continue to bring a
series of weak disturbances over the Southern CONUS. This will
result in increasing PoPs and more elevated convection for
Wednesday night.

CN

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/

The long-term period begins with an Omega Block pattern to our north
with a weak shortwave pivoting south from the Southern Plains across
our region, aiding in the southward progression of a stalled frontal
boundary which had previously taken up residence across our southern
zones. This will usher any lingering convection across our southern
half farther southward toward the coast through the day on Thursday.
Unfortunately, the extent of any dry weather will be short-lived as
another mid/upper level disturbance quickly fills in behind the cold
front with a more broad trough expanding eastward from the Rockies
as the Omega Block begins to break down. The result for us will be a
continued cooler and wet pattern through the end of the week with
highs mainly in the 60s on Friday.

These cooler temperatures will stick around for the weekend despite
a mostly dry forecast. However, clouds will linger with zonal flow
for Saturday and then another weak shortwave diving south on Sunday
with dry conditions likely extending through the remainder of the
weekend. This next shortwave will bring slight chances for showers
by early next week, but medium-range model discrepancies do remain
in terms of the timing and track of this system. For now, expect to
remain slightly cooler than average for this time of year as clouds
continue to plague the region along with the potential for showers
to close out the long-term period early next week.

/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1253 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021/

AVIATION...
For the 13/18z TAFs, isolated convection will be possible, mainly
south of Interstate 20 across Deep East Texas eastward into
Central Louisiana through early this evening. KLFK should be the
only TAF sites affected. VFR conditions prevail, but MVFR ceilings
will develop areawide after 14/00z and will continue to lower into
the IFR/LIFR range during the overnight hours. Little to no
improvement is expected at most sites through the remainder of the
period as another round of strong, possibly severe, convection
develops across Texas and moves into the area becoming widespread
after 14/06z. Precip chances should diminish slightly from west to
east just before the end of this TAF cycle.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  69  53  71 /  70  60  60  20
MLU  61  68  51  70 /  70  80  50  20
DEQ  54  67  49  70 /  60  50  30  10
TXK  57  64  50  69 /  60  50  40  10
ELD  54  64  48  70 /  60  60  40  10
TYR  62  69  52  70 /  60  40  60  20
GGG  60  69  52  70 /  70  50  60  20
LFK  66  73  55  72 /  70  50  70  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

09/19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
320 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-142030-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
320 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase through the
afternoon and evening across portions of Deep East Texas and
West Central Louisiana, near a warm front that will lift north
across these areas. Given the moderate instability expected to
develop at the surface and aloft, some of these storms may be
strong or severe, with damaging winds and large hail possible.
While these storms should weaken this evening with the loss of
heating, additional showers and thunderstorms will develop
areawide late this evening through the overnight hours near and
behind a cold front and approaching upper level disturbance. Some
of these storms may also become strong or severe late tonight,
with large hail and possibly damaging winds again possible over
much of the region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across much of the
region Wednesday morning, with an isolated severe weather threat
lingering near and behind the weak cold front across East Texas
and North Louisiana. Hail and locally gusty winds will remain
possible Wednesday morning, before the storms exit the region by
early afternoon. Additional scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will again be possible Wednesday night through
Saturday. However, no additional hazardous weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters may be needed this afternoon across
Deep East Texas and Northcentral Louisiana, and tonight across
much of the region.

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
426 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

TXZ153-166-132215-
San Augustine TX-Shelby TX-
426 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SHELBY AND NORTH
CENTRAL SAN AUGUSTINE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 426 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Neuville, or 10 miles southwest of Center. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Neuville and Jericho.

LAT...LON 3161 9435 3162 9436 3171 9431 3173 9418
      3170 9409 3160 9424
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 296DEG 3KT 3166 9425

13