Drought in Arizona, July 1 to 31, 2021

Name: Drought in Arizona, July 1 to 31, 2021
Start: 2021-07-01T00:00
End: 2021-07-31T23:59
Location: Arizona

July 1 to 31, 2021 · NWS TWC · 14 events in 14 counties and zones

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 14 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 14

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.

A wet July caused the exceptional (D4) drought category and extreme (D3) drought category to cease across nearly all of southeast Arizona, with exceptional drought only remaining in far southeast Cochise County by the end of the month. The extreme (D3) drought category remained across the rest of eastern and central Cochise County, much of Graham and Greenlee counties and parts of the Tohono O'odham Nation. July rainfall varied widely from 2 to 15 inches across southeast Arizona. In areas where the drought lingered through the end of the month this equated to 75 to 125 percent of normal rainfall while areas in which the drought eased further rainfall tallied as much as 400 percent of normal. July ranked as the wettest on record for any month at the Tucson International Airport where 8.06 inches was recorded. The rainfall caused wildfire season to end and soil moisture readings to improve from below the 10th percentile to between the 30th and 70th percentiles by month's end. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir started to rise, but only reached slightly more than 1 percent of capacity by the end of the month.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 30, 1:15 PM MST, 10 hours 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 30, 1:15 PM MST, 10 hours 45 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
115 PM MST Wed Jun 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered thunderstorms are expected into this evening,
primarily over higher terrain and from Tucson south and west.
Thereafter expect widely scattered to scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend with high temperatures generally a
few degrees cooler than average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Convective development ongoing early this afternoon as
expected, initially across the higher terrain with gradual
development in valley locations. Considerable cloudiness east of a
line from Bisbee-Safford may limit convection for these areas with
more general scattered shower activity. PWAT values currently range
from 1.25" to 1.5" from Tucson westward and 1.1" to 1.3" east of
Tucson. These values are certainly high enough to generate locally
heavy rainfall where enough solar insolation occurs, especially
given fairly slow storm motion towards the south and southwest less
than 10 mph. The main concern will continue to be across burn scar
regions including the Bighorn on the Catalinas as flash flooding can
occur there with as little as 0.5" per hour. Showers and perhaps a
few thunderstorms have the potential to linger well into the evening
hours aided by the inverted trough over far eastern sections of the
area.

PWAT values are progged to be on the increase on Thursday, at or
above 1.5" for areas from Tucson westward. However, there is
considerable uncertainty on how Thursday shakes out and much of that
will depend on what evolves today and tonight. There is the
potential for considerable cloudiness limiting convective
development. However, in areas that get enough sun, showers and
thunderstorms may produce areas of heavy rainfall given the deeper
moisture profile.

Looking at Friday and through the weekend, an overall favorable
early monsoon pattern will continue for early July as inverted
troughiness extending northward from Sonora may give convection a
bit of a boost. The general steering pattern will be from the east
as the high pressure aloft remains centered to our north. Still
plenty of moisture into early next week as well for daily rounds of
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms as the high
remains to our north.

High temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal through
Monday then increase to near normal values by the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 02/00Z.
Expect SCT-BKN clouds 10k-14k ft MSL for most of the period.
Scattered SHRA/TSRA will be possible over most of the area through
about 01/04Z with perhaps a bit of a lull overnight, then increasing
aft 01/18Z. Wind gusts 40-50 kts will be possible near TSRA.
Otherwise, SFC winds mostly ELY/SELY 8-12 kts with gusts to 20 kts
in the afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoonal moisture continues to increase across
southeast Arizona, allowing for daily showers and thunderstorms
through the weekend. Minimum humidities generally reach the 20s and
30s in the lower elevations and 40s in the mountains with very good
overnight recoveries. Easterly breezes continue for much of the
area, gradually shifting to a typical diurnal pattern Friday into
the weekend with speeds less than 15 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

14 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 27, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 31.812, -111.318 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Tucson Metro Area

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 27, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Tucson Metro Area forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 32.097, -111.790 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, South Central Pinal County

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 27, 11:59 PM MST
Where: South Central Pinal County forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 32.904, -111.345 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Southeast Pinal County

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 27, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Southeast Pinal County forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 32.904, -111.345 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Upper San Pedro River Valley

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 27, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Upper San Pedro River Valley forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 32.109, -110.569 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 27, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 31.834, -110.796 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 27, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 32.501, -111.567 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Baboquivari Mountains

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 27, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Baboquivari Mountains forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 32.097, -111.790 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Tohono O Odham Nation

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Tohono O Odham Nation forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 32.501, -111.567 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 31.880, -109.751 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 32.572, -110.328 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Chiricahua Mountains

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Chiricahua Mountains forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 31.880, -109.751 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Arizona in 2021 Every state in 2021 This day in weather history Warnings in Arizona, July 2021

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 972801, 972812, 972813, 972814, 972816, 972817, 972818, 972819, 972820, 972822, 972823, 972824, 972825, 972826.