Flash Flood in Wisconsin, June 10, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1234 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

Adjusted QPF amounts in northwest Wisconsin to sharpen the
gradient from areas which have yet to receive precip and areas
where rain has fallen for the past several hours. Raised overnight
QPF for a narrow swath of eastern Sawyer, Price, and southern
Iron County to 2 to 3 inches. Deformation axis associated with the
remnants of Tropical Storm Cristobal will move over those areas
during the next 2 to 4 hours. Radar, MRMS, and gauge reports from
those areas indicate a maximum of 1 to 1.5 inches of rain have
already fallen. Rain rates have been as high as half an inch per
hour, which the dry and sandy soils should be able to absorb.
Continue the Flash Flood Watch for Ashland, Iron, Sawyer, and
Price counties. Mesoscale banding of additional rainfall could
raise the risk of flash flooding in the watch area overnight.

Farther west, convection continues to percolate along the synoptic
cold front over our western zones. Storm motions around 10 knots
and limited instability have contributed to short-lived storms,
with brief periods of moderate rainfall. We continue to watch
those areas for flooding potential, but would need to see more
persistent moderate rainfall than has been noted so far this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

Low pressure was located near International Falls early this
afternoon with a cold front trailing southward to another area of
low pressure in north-central Kansas. The low pressure center that
is the remains of Tropical Storm Cristobal were located near
Keokuk, Iowa. Showers and embedded thunderstorms were moving up
the Mississippi Valley and were reaching areas just south of the
DLH CWA by the mid-afternoon hours. As the remains of Cristobal
move north, they will interact with the cold front just off to the
west and the area of low pressure across Kansas tonight, spreading
a large area of rainfall across much of the Duluth CWA. The bulk
of this rainfall will be seen across northwest Wisconsin and the
axis of heaviest rainfall has shifted further to the east with
this update. A swath of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall will be possible
across Price County and into adjacent areas of Sawyer, Ashland and
Iron counties. With PWAT values in excess of 1.5 inches and warm
rain processes expected to dominate as evidenced by skinny
forecast CAPE profiles. While thunderstorms are not expected over
northwest Wisconsin, a few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out
but areas of heavy rainfall will be possible and will lead to a
flash flood concern along the aforementioned highest axis of
rainfall. As such, a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for those
areas. A few thunderstorms will be possible along the cold front,
however, from the Brainerd Lakes area northward to the Borderland.
Northwest winds will increase tonight to 5 to 15 mph with gusts
to 20 to 25 mph by daybreak. Lows tonight will remain mild in the
50s.

As the main area of low pressure moves northeastward into
northeastern Ontario Wednesday morning, a break in the rainfall is
expected across the region. A secondary low will then pass by to
the south as an upper trough passes over the region. This will
lead to more in the way of showers by the afternoon hours and this
activity will then linger into Wednesday night before tapering
off. Much of this activity is expected to be clear of the
Northland by daybreak Thursday. Northwest winds will remain breezy
for Wednesday into Wednesday night with a fairly tight pressure
gradient in place. Sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to
20 to 30 mph will be seen through the day before diminishing to 5
to 15 mph Wednesday night, although gusts to 25 to 30 mph may
persist across the Arrowhead. Highs Wednesday will be in the
middle 50s to middle 60s with lows Wednesday night in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

After lingering showers on Thursday on the backside of departing low
pressure, a quiet weekend is in store for the Northland with high
pressure in control. Temperatures will trend cooler and closer to
normal before warming late in the period.

Low pressure will be moving into western Quebec south of James Bay
at the start of the period as a large dome of high pressure sets up
across the central third of the U.S. The Northland will be under a
tight gradient in a northwest flow regime on Thursday as a secondary
upper low rotates around the main low from northwestern Ontario
southeastward over eastern Lake Superior. This will keep a chance of
a few showers and thunderstorms in place through the day, mainly
during the afternoon hours, along with breezy northwest winds. High
pressure will then build in for Friday through Sunday with mainly
clear skies and seasonable temperatures expected. As the surface
high shifts east of the region heading into Monday, weak surface low
pressure looks to move into the Northern Plains and bring showers
and thunderstorms to the Red River Valley. Models disagree on how
far east this activity will reach as the strong high pressure
remains as a blocking mechanism to the east. While this activity may
reach the Northland on Monday, it may just as easily remain to our
west and not affect us at all before potentially dissipating on
Tuesday.

Highs Thursday through Saturday will run near to slightly below
normal with highs in the 60s and lower 70s. Temperatures will then
warm for Sunday into the new week to near to slightly above normal
with highs in the 70s and lower 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020

Remnants from Cristobal and a slow moving cold front will continue
to affect the terminals through much of the forecast. Showers and
isold thunderstorms are possible, but the thunderstorm timing is
more in question and have left out for now. Behind the front, and as
Cristobal continues to depart, look for gusty northwest winds at all
terminals through the end of the forecast. A mix of cigs from IFR in
the neighborhood of the more robust showers, to MVFR cigs/vsbys,
improving to VFR by the end of the forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

The remnants of Tropical Storm Cristobal will move northeastern
Wisconsin and into northeast Ontario Wednesday morning. Heavy rain
is expected overnight and winds winds will increase with time
Wednesday. Winds will be northeasterly ahead of the system
overnight and will back northwesterly and westerly Wednesday
morning and will continue to back westerly and southwesterly by
Wednesday night. Sustained winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected
and wind gusts will increase to 20 to 25 knots. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed for portions of the South Shore
waters by Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  62  47  68 /  90  40  40  30
INL  50  56  42  63 /  80  50  30  30
BRD  53  65  50  72 /  80  50  20  20
HYR  56  66  49  72 / 100  40  40  30
ASX  53  65  48  70 / 100  50  40  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT early this morning for WIZ003-
     004-008-009.

MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

UPDATE...Huyck
SHORT TERM...BJH
LONG TERM...BJH
AVIATION...GSF/KL
MARINE...Huyck

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
733 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

WIZ003-004-008-009-101130-
Ashland-Iron-Sawyer-Price-
733 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Rain and thunderstorms associated with Tropical Depression
Cristobal will spread northward into northwest Wisconsin this
evening with rain to continue through the early morning hours.
Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are possible which may
lead to flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect overnight
for Ashland, Iron, Sawyer, and Price Counties.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Showers and thunderstorms will remain around the area on
Wednesday, with locally heavy rainfall possible. Rain and
thunderstorm chances continue Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of rainfall and flooding from spotters and the public are
requested.

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001-002-006-007-101130-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Burnett-Washburn-
733 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front over
central and northern Minnesota. Some storms may be strong with
half-inch hail possible. A brief and weak tornado or two is
possible mainly over the Brainerd Lakes area this evening.
Rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Cristobal will spread
northward across the region tonight. Rainfall rates of 1 inch per
hour are possible at times. Minor flooding may develop overnight
where the heaviest rainfall occurs.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Showers and thunderstorms will remain around the area on
Wednesday, with locally heavy rainfall possible. Rain and
thunderstorm chances continue Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of rainfall and flooding from spotters and the public are
requested.

LSZ121-140>148-101130-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
733 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Nearshore
waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms over western Lakes Superior
overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

West and northwest winds are expected Wednesday morning and will
back southwesterly and westerly Wednesday night and Thursday. Wind
speeds and gusts will increase as well as Tropical Depression
Cristobal moves over the lake. Wind gusts to 30 knots are possible
between early Wednesday and Wednesday night. These winds will
produce building waves and hazardous conditions for small craft.
Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed on Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

Huyck

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
927 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NE FORT RIPLEY        46.20N 94.32W
06/09/2020  M1.16 INCH       CROW WING          MN   MESONET

            MESONET STATION NOKM5 3.2 SE LENNOX.

0856 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSE GRAND RAPIDS      47.22N 93.52W
06/09/2020  M1.04 INCH       ITASCA             MN   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KGPZ GRAND RAPIDS AIRPORT.

0907 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N BIGFORK             47.78N 93.65W
06/09/2020  M0.96 INCH       ITASCA             MN   MESONET

            MESONET STATION EFFM5 EFFIE RAWS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
943 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SSW ORR               48.02N 92.85W
06/09/2020  M0.77 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MN   MESONET

            MESONET STATION ORBM5 ORR RAWS.

0908 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SW LITTLEFORK         48.39N 93.56W
06/09/2020  M0.45 INCH       KOOCHICHING        MN   MESONET

            MESONET STATION LITM5 LITTLEFORK RAWS.

0919 PM     HEAVY RAIN       10 WSW FIFIELD          45.82N 90.62W
06/09/2020  M0.41 INCH       PRICE              WI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION EW4088 PARK FALLS.

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SE CELINA             47.82N 93.02W
06/09/2020  M0.36 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MN   MESONET

            MESONET STATION SRMM5 3.7 SE CELINA.

0916 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 S COOK                47.82N 92.68W
06/09/2020  M0.32 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MN   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KCQM COOK AIRPORT.

0915 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PHILLIPS                45.70N 90.40W
06/09/2020  M0.28 INCH       PRICE              WI   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KPBH PHILLIPS AIRPORT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1108 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W KABETOGAMA          48.44N 93.05W
06/09/2020  M1.41 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MN   MESONET

            MESONET STATION KNMM5 KABETOGAMA RAWS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1111 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PHILLIPS                45.70N 90.40W
06/09/2020  M1.09 INCH       PRICE              WI   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KPBH PHILLIPS AIRPORT. 0.81 INCHES IN THE
            LAST 1 HOUR AND 10 MINUTES.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1120 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1114 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N MOTLEY              46.35N 94.65W
06/09/2020  M0.41 INCH       CASS               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN BEGAN AT 608 PM.

&&

KLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1220 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ENE MERCER            46.18N 90.02W
06/10/2020  M0.75 INCH       IRON               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN BEGAN AROUND 8 PM.

&&

KLH