Hail in South Carolina, August 2, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances increase across the region into Monday night as
tropical moisture begins to interact with a stalling front, ahead of
Tropical Storm Isaias.  The storm will pass near the Georgia and
Carolina coasts Monday through early Tuesday, enhancing our risk of
heavy rainfall and isolated flooding.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 PM Update...Scattered tstms are remaining aligned within a well
defined sfc trof this afternoon. Not much vertical extent, but a few
storms are becoming strong enuf to produce gusty downbursts on the
order of 30-40 kts along with pea size hail. Expect continued
re-development over the next few hrs as the cells propagate
northeast arnd 20 kts. Convective activity shud generally remain
west of the Charlotte metro area during this time.

As of 230 pm EDT: Through sunset, coincident with the axis of the
more robust updraft helicity, scattered, locally severe thunderstorms
capable of damaging wind gusts will develop across Upstate SC and
into the North Carolina foothills.  Diurnal lessening and/or
dissipation of deeper convection is expect as the evening wears on,
but overnight, within the developing favorable upper jet
circulation/divergence and llvl theta-e ridge numerous showers and
embedded tstms should redevelop in the mtns/fthls.  At this point,
despite the varying magnitude of model late night convective
response and orientation, enough solutions are focusing on the
Northern NC Blue Ridge where the residence time of tropical showers
and storms will be the longest, perhaps running into Monday evening.
Based on this, a Flash Flood Watch will be issued for this area, and
successive shifts can monitor for any expansion if needed. Within
broadening plume of tropical moisture will maintain going trend of
pops ramping up to categorical throughout Monday, although there
exists only a low end probability that GSP's far eastern zones will
see anything more than the onset of breezy conditions by sunset on
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 PM Sunday: Tropical storm Isaias will be passing by to our
east Monday night and moving away from the area Tuesday. Expect
widespread precipitation will be ongoing during the evening then
tapering off quickly from west to east overnight. Heavy rainfall may
still be ongoing as well, but should follow similar pattern and
taper off quickly overnight. Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect
Monday night as a result. Gusty winds will be possible Monday night
as the cyclone moves northward. However, wind speeds should be well
below advisory level. Still, a few trees could fall given the
rainfall expected.

Isolated to scattered convection will linger Tuesday but significant
heavy rainfall is not expected. Some low end gusts will be possible
as well, but should be lower than Monday night. Highs will be a
couple of degrees below normal.

Expect a return to scattered diurnal convection on Wednesday. Highs
will back to around normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Sunday: Starting Wed evening with a closed upper low
over Quebec which will move east to the Canadian maritimes by
Friday. The upper trough remains over the eastern half of the CONUS
at least early in this forecast period.  A moist low level flow will
aid in the convective development late each day. The axis of the
upper trough on both the GFS and ECMWF on Wed night will be over the
Mississippi Valley. This axis shifts to the East Coast by Sunday.
There is a notable difference on Day 7 in that the EC maintains the
trough over the East Coast into early next week while the GFS begins
replacing the East Coast trough with a ridge.  Models are in
agreement that the more active day may be on Sunday as a significant
shortwave reaches our region. Temperatures will be near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: A pretty typical summertime afternoon within
the warm sector featuring sswly sfc flow with the chance of some low
amplitude wind gusts.  Sct-bkn vfr lvl cu will continue develop into
numerous tstms as the afternoon wears on and tempo for tsra will be
carried for all terminal locations until sunset.  With diurnal
lessening/dissipation of the deep convective cvrg this evening, most
of the FA will feature just varying degrees of debris clouds until
forcing returns overnight, where numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms are expected to redevelop in and close to the higher
terrain.  For the daytime hours on Monday, expect deteriorating
flight conditions and as scattered outer rain bands encroach the
piedmont well downstream of tropical system.

Outlook: Shower and thunderstorm coverage will linger into Monday
night between a stalled mountain front and within the tropical
moisture. Daily rounds of diurnal convection will likely continue
well into late week, even with the tropical system pulling away to
the northeast.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     Med   75%     High  92%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  80%     High  90%
KAVL       High 100%     High  91%     Low   43%     Med   74%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     Med   73%     Med   74%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     Med   76%     High  92%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  94%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Flash Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Monday through Tuesday morning
     for NCZ033-049-050-501>506.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CSH/SBK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...DEO/08
AVIATION...CSH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
303 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-507>510-SCZ001>014-019-031915-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
303 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue into the evening. Any
thunderstorms that develop will produce gusty winds, locally heavy
rainfall, and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning. One or two
thunderstorms may become severe late today, with damaging wind gusts
the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage during the day
Monday, continuing to produce locally heavy rainfall. Isolated flash
flooding may occur late Monday. As Tropical Storm Isaias makes its
nearest pass to our region Monday night into early Tuesday, breezy
and occasionally gusty winds may develop. A few trees could fall in
areas where soils are saturated by the heavy rainfall. Isaias could
bring additional precipitation Monday night. Flooding may become an
increasing concern in areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy
rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-049-050-501>506-031915-
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
303 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue across the area through the
evening. Any thunderstorms that develop will produce gusty winds,
locally heavy rainfall, and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning. A
few thunderstorms may become severe late today, with damaging wind
gusts the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
542 PM EDT SUN AUG 02 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N CONOVER             35.74N 81.22W
08/02/2020                   CATAWBA            NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE DEPT REPORTED A TREE DOWN AT COUNTY HOME RD AND
            LEE CLINE RD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
542 PM EDT SUN AUG 02 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW CONOVER            35.72N 81.23W
08/02/2020                   CATAWBA            NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE DEPT/RESCUE REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON HERMAN SIPE RD
            NW.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
551 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

GAZ026-028-022215-
Hart GA-Franklin GA-
551 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND WEST
CENTRAL HART COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 551 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southeast of Carnesville, or near Victoria Bryant State Park,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Canon, Franklin Springs, Bowersville, Victoria Bryant State Park and
Royston.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3425 8316 3428 8323 3442 8317 3438 8301
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 216DEG 12KT 3433 8316

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
553 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

NCZ049-022230-
Yancey NC-
553 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL YANCEY COUNTY UNTIL 630
PM EDT...

At 553 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Burnsville, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Burnsville, Green Mountain and Micaville.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3600 8219 3600 8220 3596 8219 3595 8220
      3593 8218 3593 8215 3592 8215 3579 8234
      3580 8234 3582 8236 3582 8239 3583 8240
      3600 8226 3599 8225 3601 8225 3602 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 218DEG 21KT 3587 8232

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
626 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

GAZ026-SCZ004-022245-
Franklin GA-Greater Oconee SC-
626 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 626 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles northwest of Hartwell, or near Tugaloo State Park, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Gumlog, Tugaloo State Park, Oakway and Fair Play.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake Hartwell is in the path of this storm. Cloud to ground
lightning and gusty winds will create dangerous boating conditions.
Move to shore immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3446 8314 3452 8312 3454 8310 3455 8312
      3463 8308 3459 8291 3448 8302 3449 8305
      3444 8308 3445 8309
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 203DEG 18KT 3451 8307

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
634 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

NCZ504-506-508-022300-
Greater Rutherford NC-Greater Burke NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
634 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL...
NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD AND SOUTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM
EDT...

At 633 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southeast of Marion, or 11 miles west of South Mountains State
Park, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Morganton, Glen Alpine, Lake James, South Mountains State Park and
Dysartsville.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3548 8182 3552 8194 3576 8185 3571 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 203DEG 20KT 3557 8185

LANE