Tropical Storm and Tropical Depression in Florida, August 2 to 3, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
344 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Today...The circulation of Tropical Storm Isaias is seen pretty
clearly on NWS Miami doppler radar. It shows some increase in
banding features and more of a W/NW motion last few hours which
should bring it very close to the Treasure coast later this
morning and up along the Space coast this evening. Have accounted
for the slower forward motion up the coast in the PoP and wind
forecast. More frequent squalls will move onshore the Treasure
coast and increase northward extent as Isaias gains latitude. Best
chance for sustained tropical storm force winds will be along the
coastal counties beginning this morning along the treasure coast,
spreading northward to Space coast this afternoon/evening and
Volusia county this evening/overnight. Frequent gusts to tropical
storm force expected over the interior counties with a lesser
threat in Lake county.

Max temps will reach the lower 90s across northern interior
sections given the later onset of clouds/rain, with mid to upper
80s elsewhere.

For more details on the impacts and timing, please refer to the
Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement (MIAHLSMLB).

Monday...Present forecast of Isaias has slowed slightly, and by
early Monday the center is expected to be exiting the area over the
NE FL Atlantic waters. Stronger winds ascd with the system will
largely be located over the Atlantic waters early with expected
decrease in winds across the north by midday. High moisture and
favorable westerly flow should prompt afternoon development of
scattered to numerous lightning storms

Remainder of week...Model consensus through the medium range
indicate a favorable moist regime along with a lingering pressure
trough extending Swd over the region from the Mid-Atlc area, along
with westerly steering. Numerous afternoon storms are forecast daily
through midweek. The subtropical Atlc ridge is advertised to lift
north toward central FL by around Fri. The forecast wl feature
higher than normal rain chc through much of the period with lows in
the M70s and highs in the L-M90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Conditions will deteriorate south to north as T.S. Isaias shifts
closer to the east central FL coastline. Best chance for Tropical
storm force winds will be coastal terminals starting SUA and
spreading northward. More frequent squalls will impact the coast
and spread well inland to interior terminals which will produce
quick cig/vis reductions.

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight...All vessels should remain in port. Sustained
winds will increase from south to north as Isaias lifts NW toward
the Treasure coast. Squalls rotating onshore will become more
frequent and gusts within those squalls will increase with time.
Seas will build to 20-25 ft east of Treasure Coast this morning,
for Brevard waters this aftn/eve and for Volusia waters tonight.
Conditions will improve across the southern waters this evening as
wind flow becomes S/SW with speeds around 20 knots but seas
will rapidly diminish.

Monday...Hazardous conditions over the northern waters Monday will
require a headline with departure of Isaias as seas around 8 to 10
ft are expected. Seas will diminish with a rather quick reduction in
winds by late Monday.

Remainder of week...Improvement to wind and seas areawide early
Tuesday. Through midweek, winds and seas around 3 to 4 ft can be
expected with locally higher conditions near storms moving offshore
from the mainland through at least Thursday. Seas improve further to
around 2 to 3 feet by Friday. Headlines are not anticipated during
the week after Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  76  91  75 /  80  80  80  30
MCO  87  77  90  76 /  80  60  80  30
MLB  87  77  93  76 /  90  80  80  30
VRB  87  78  93  74 /  90  80  80  40
LEE  91  77  89  77 /  80  50  70  30
SFB  89  76  89  77 /  80  70  80  30
ORL  88  77  89  77 /  80  60  80  30
FPR  87  78  93  75 /  90  80  80  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Hurricane Warning for Coastal Volusia-Indian River-Martin-
     Northern Brevard-Southern Brevard-St. Lucie.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Inland Volusia-Okeechobee-Orange-
     Osceola-Seminole.

AM...Hurricane Warning for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County
     Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line
     20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line
     to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

Cristaldi/Kelly/Pendergrast/Weitlich/Smith

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
746 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-021200-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
746 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Please refer to the Hurricane Local Statement for information and
hazards expected across the area related to Isaias.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
Direct impacts from Isaias will occur across the area Sunday
through Sunday night as they system moves northward near the east
central Florida coast.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms then expected each
afternoon through mid week, as lingering deep moisture remains in
place as Isaias moves farther north to northeast and away from the
area.

Weitlich