NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 30, 8:22 PM PST, 3 hours 38 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 30, 8:22 PM PST, 3 hours 38 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Portland OR
922 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020
Updated aviation discussion.
.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the region will maintain warm and dry
conditions through Friday, with varying smoke aloft. A weak
disturbance will move across Pac NW on Friday, with increasing
onshore flow and cooler temperatures. This will also push the deflect
the smoke back to the east and south, with smoke staying mostly over
southern Oregon this weekend. Still mild and dry to start next week,
but return to increasing onshore flow with clouds and even rain
looking more likely by end of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday...Overall, not much change in
weather pattern, as strong high pressure remains parked over
southeastern Oregon. This will maintain warm and dry air mass over
the Pac NW through Friday. Marine layer will continue to hug the
coast tonight, with patchy fog at times.This stratus will drift into
the valleys of the Coast Range and Willapa Hills overnight. But,
pressure gradients not all that strong, so will have only limited
movement inland. That said, am not expecting marine clouds to reach
the Willamette Valley overnight, though will see patchy fog again.
Smoke aloft will continue to stream out of California northward into
and across the Pac NW. Though smoke layer aloft is not all that
thick, the varying thickness will be apparent from the orange/red
tinting of the sun during the day, and moon at night. Rather strong
inversion over the region, which will act to keep the smoke aloft,
and not reach the lower elevations. Will see some patchy smoke
in/around the fire, mainly in the Cascades around Lionshead fire.
Also, with the inversion, the air inland below it (yes, this is the
nearly all areas below about 2000 feet), will not change as will just
be recycling it. So, even though air is somewhat stagnant, the air
will generally stay in the good to moderate air quality.
Not much change for Thursday, as looks like will have a near repeat
of today again for Thursday, and to some degree, Friday as well. Weak
upper level disturbance will push across region later Friday. This
system will bring no rain, but will act to enhance the low level
onshore flow. Will see increasing low clouds along the coast later in
the afternoon, with those clouds pushing inland Friday night. With
the deepening marine layer, will add patchy fog/patchy drizzle for
Friday night into early Sat along the coast and into the western
slopes of the Coast Range and Willapa Hills.
After morning clouds, most areas will break back to partly to mostly
sunny skies on Saturday, with coast last to improve. Will be cooler,
with highs inland only in the 70s. And, flow aloft will be more west
to southwesterly, which will clear the smoke aloft. /Rockey
.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Wednesday...Models maintain more
a west to southwest flow aloft through Sunday. This will maintain
light to moderate onshore flow, with mild temperatures again on
Sunday. Could be tad breezy with the west to northwest winds in the
afternoon, primarily in the Gorge where could see gusts 20 to 25 mph
into Sunday evening.
Gradients and onshore flow weakens Sunday night, with light and
variable flow. But, with upper high just offshore on Monday, will see
light offshore flow develop. This will bring temperatures back up a
tad but still in the 70s to lower 80s. Mainly, the flow will provide
bit warmer overnight temperatures in the higher terrain. But, any
east winds will not be all that strong. But, this will be a brief
bout, as the offshore flow will weaken again Tue.
After that, models gradually becoming more progressive as go
deeper into next week. Models do diverge by Wed and Thu, with some
runs showing rather wet and strong front arriving, with others show
clouds and dry, with deep low approaching on Thu into Fri. For the
moment, am trending towards a front arriving on Thu, followed by a
rather juicy system later Friday. Whoo boy. While our confidence is
high for a change for next week, am maintaining low confidence in
what will really happen. As they say, stay tuned. /Rockey
&&
.AVIATION...Marine stratus continues along the coast this evening
with satellite imagery showing it spreading inland slightly through
the western most portions of the Coast Range. The marine stratus and
coordinating fog will thicken through the evening as winds weaken.
Expect IFR cigs and vis along the coast through the night, with
localized improvements after 18Z Thu. Elsewhere, smoke is streaming
into the area from the fires in California producing a broken layer
of clouds/haze aloft around 9000 ft. Smoke likely will not impact
visibility through the next 24 hours, and the layer will provide
enough insulation to keep fog at bay. While there is a chance for
some patchy ground fog, likely will not be pervasive and should
stick to the Willamette Valley after 12Z Thu.
By daybreak and through the remainder of the forecast, inland areas
will be VFR with some lingering haze aloft. Coastal areas likely
will see some improvement, but will high pressure anchored over the
region, there will not be a driving force to clear any of the marine
stratus. Likely conditions will repeat tomorrow afternoon.
Refer to http://weather.gov/zse for detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with an elevated smoke layer near FL090
for the next 24 hours. Thin river fog could briefly affect
visibility early Thursday. Have included the presence of ground fog
without a visibility restriction at this time, however there is a
chance that visibility could deteriorate overnight. -Muessle/JBonk
&&
.MARINE..No significant changes as high pressure aloft and light
surface pressure gradients result in light winds for the next few
days. Next wind concern will be as a thermal surface low build
north along the coast later this weekend. Wind gusts 20-25 kt
will be possible Sunday through Tuesday, especially for the
central waters. Multiple lows in the Gulf of Alaska will continue
to send periodic 6 to 8 ft westerly swell trains across the
waters every 36-48 hours. Given the lighter winds and minimal
wind wave development, this should only bring seas up toward 9 ft
at times. /JBonk
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
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