Drought in Texas, October 1 to 31, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1204 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020

.AVIATION...
VFR next 24 hours. Weak frontal boundary is moving through the
region which should clear all the sites by 08Z. Most excellent
flying weather out here this morning with a sharp temperature
inversion between the surface and 1000' AGL.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 225 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020/

SHORT TERM...
15Z analysis showed a broad 500 mb anticyclone centered over the
Desert Southwest, with a longwave trough pivoting across the
northern Great Plains and into the Great Lakes region. A few
shortwave perturbations were also rotating across the upstream
portion of this elongated jet streak, evident by a ribbon of
stratocumulus trailing far behind a cold front that is now beginning
to infiltrate the southern Great Plains region (now crossing into
the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles).

Ahead of the front, temperatures are on the rise across the forecast
area as the depth of the mid-level subsidence inversion that was
observed yesterday has since eroded due to the transition to
northwesterly flow aloft as the trough axis shifts east. As
expected, vertical mixing heights will therefore be substantially
higher this afternoon compared to yesterday, with the boundary-layer
top near 3-3.5-km AGL. Temperatures will peak in the upper 80s on
the Caprock and breach into the lower 90s in the Rolling Plains this
afternoon (about 10 deg F above normal for today), with winds
shifting to the southeast later today as a surface trough becomes
more defined across the CWA ahead of the approaching cold front.

The front should begin to near the CWA later this evening, and a
wind shift to the northeast/east-northeast can be expected as it
begins to stall along the periphery of the Sacramento Mountain range.
Pressure rises behind the front should be fairly weak, on the order
of a few millibars over the period of 8-12 hours, and breezy
conditions are expected with winds prevailing out of the east by
Thursday afternoon. High temperatures tomorrow will be near or
slightly below normal as the heavily modified, continental polar
airmass settles in upon the cessation of cool air advection and the
return of westerly 700 mb flow resulting in the formation of a stout
thermal inversion, thus limiting adiabatic warming.

Sincavage

LONG TERM...
Persistent ridging over the western CONUS and a trough to our east
will continue to dominate through the long-term forecast. Friday
will remain near normal due to the cold front that will move through
the area on Thursday. This weekend will be a rollercoaster ride with
temperatures. A short-wave will rotate around the ridge Saturday
driving another front south. On Saturday, highs will be 5 to 10
degrees above normal for most of the area due to compressional
heating ahead of the front. Locations in the forecast area fortunate
enough to be behind the front will be around normal. On Sunday, the
front will be out of the area leaving behind near to just below
normal temperatures. 500 mb heights will increase to near 590dm
going into next week, leading to another round of above normal
temperatures through the middle of next week. Precipitation chances
through the long-term remain low.

Kendrick

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

99/99/26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
149 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020

TXZ021>044-010700-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
149 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.