A vigorous low pressure system crossing the plains pushed a vigorous cold front across the area during the evening hours. A very brief period of high winds occurred with the frontal passage.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AMA wrote it up.
A vigorous low pressure system crossing the plains pushed a vigorous cold front across the area during the evening hours. A very brief period of high winds occurred with the frontal passage. Maximum sustained winds briefly exceeded 40 mph and gusts reached the mid 50s. Blowing dusts caused minor reductions to visibility as well.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Amarillo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 11, 5:30 PM CST, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
630 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Winds will still be strong out of the west southwest
25-30kts gusting up to 40kts through 3-6z this evening, before a
cold front comes in tonight. North northwest winds 20-30kts
gusting up to 45kts possible behind the front. That wont last too
long, as by 7z all sites should fall to the 15kt range. Skies will
be mostly clear for the period and winds will become light and
variable around 13-15z period.
Weber
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 228 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020/
SHORT TERM (through Monday night)...
Highlights for the short term are here in the first ~24 hours as
we encounter our first critical fire weather day of the fall fire
season and a strong cold front later tonight. Strong wind speeds
today coupled with low RH and receptive fuels are a recipe for
potential fire growth with any fires that happen to start.
Otherwise, we are looking at near record high temperatures again
today, and then a strong cold front sweeps through tonight which
will make for strong northerly winds. Temperatures tomorrow
afternoon will be about 15-20 degrees cooler than today with the
colder airmass sinking in, but those highs tomorrow are
surprisingly closer to normal for this time of year.
Surface analysis as of 2pm shows troughing over much of the Great
Plains; thanks in part to a deepening upper level trough over the
Rockies at 500mb. Position of the surface trough places the
Panhandles in west/southwest downsloping winds. RH values have
already tanked into the single digits. Forecast soundings already
show a good mixing profile, and this will only be amplified as we
reach peak heating later this afternoon with momentum transfer
producing wind speeds around 25-35 mph with gust closer to 40-45
mph. These surface conditions in place coupled with receptive
fuels are already producing critical fire weather conditions
across the forecast area. As a result, the Red Flag Warning will
go until 8 pm. By 9pm, we should start to see the cold front
making its way into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Height rises behind
the front are strong, on the order of 15-20 mb/6hr (~3-5mb/hr
along the front). These height rises will help blast the front
through rather quickly and should be south of Amarillo by 11pm.
The strong height rises will create gradient wind speeds along the
front around 30-35 mph for a brief period (gusts around 45-50
mph). So, the Oklahoma Panhandle (Texas/Beaver Counties) could
briefly see wind advisory conditions, but not long enough to
warrant the issuance of an advisory as these conditions may only
last an hour. By sunrise, wind speeds should be around 10-15 mph,
and by the afternoon we could be looking at light and variable
winds as a surface high develops over the Panhandles. Highs
tomorrow will be closer to normal in the mid to upper 70s with
plenty of sunshine. Overall, a nice fall day is expected on
Columbus Day to start the week.
Guerrero
LONG TERM...
Tuesday and Wednesday will see a warmup across the Panhandles,
with the temperatures getting back in the upper 80s and lower 80s.
By Wednesday, there will be a few more records which will be
threatened, as records in the lower 90s may be equaled or
exceeded. However, by Wednesday night and Thursday, the next cold
front will move through, bringing temperatures back to
normal...and then some. Current thinking is that afternoon highs
will remain in the 60s. Still not much in the way of rain chances.
We talked a bit yesterday about the potential pattern change
coming up in a little over a week. The medium range model
solutions aren't quite as aggressive as yesterday, but they are
still suggesting a long wave trough over the eastern and central
US. As mentioned yesterday, the details of the trough will be
important as to what will happen for us. But, at least there are
some consistent signals of showing the late October change in the
overall pattern.
Fox
FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the combined
Panhandles this afternoon. ERC values have now approached the
70th to 96th percentile range as our prolonged dry streak
continues. These ERC values will coincide with a LLTR and strong
wind speeds at 700mb (30-40 knots) and 500 mb (40-50 knots) today.
The combination of low RH and strong wind speeds has already
resulted in RFTI values between 3 and 7 (isolated 8 at times) for
most of the area. RFTI values of this range coupled with high ERC
percentiles has yielded the need for a Red Flag Warning across
the forecast area today.
Guerrero
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 46 76 49 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
Beaver OK 43 77 47 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
Boise City OK 38 75 45 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
Borger TX 48 79 52 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
Boys Ranch TX 43 78 46 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
Canyon TX 46 76 48 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
Clarendon TX 52 75 50 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dalhart TX 38 75 41 81 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Guymon OK 41 75 45 81 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hereford TX 46 78 47 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lipscomb TX 46 76 49 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
Pampa TX 48 77 51 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
Shamrock TX 52 76 48 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
Wellington TX 54 78 48 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf
Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill...
Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Palo
Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman...
Wheeler.
OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.
&&
89/24/14/24Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 732 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-121245- Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb- Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson- Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth- Palo Duro Canyon- 732 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Blowing Dust Advisory in effect for the Panhandles through 1 AM, winds will be gusting 40 to 55 MPH, with the possibility of isolated 60 MPH gusts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Patchy elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the western half of the combined Panhandles Monday through Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time. Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for elevated or critical fire weather conditions Monday.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Guymon ASOS measured a sustained wind of 40.3 mph at about 7:13 PM CST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oklahoma in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Oklahoma, October 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 925027.