A clipper system moved through western North Dakota during the late night hours of January 4, and the early morning hours of January 5. Strong wind gusts developed as this system moved through, with the strongest winds over western North Dakota.
Every event with a place to put it; 7 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.
A clipper system moved through western North Dakota during the late night hours of January 4, and the early morning hours of January 5. Strong wind gusts developed as this system moved through, with the strongest winds over western North Dakota. The highest wind gusts of 66 mph occurred in Adams, Stark, and Hettinger counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 4, 9:16 PM CST, 44 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 916 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 916 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2020 Stronger winds have now developed across northwest North Dakota. At 9 PM CST, the Williston Airport reported sustained winds at 35 mph with a peak wind gust of 51 mph. Should see these winds continue to expand eastward through the rest of the evening. Temperatures have been rising this evening behind the initial wind shift, which is now approaching the James River Valley. Expect temperatures mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s until the main push of colder air arrives from southern Saskatchewan/northeast Montana in the next couple hours. Radar and surface observations show an area of precipitation over Glasgow, MT at 9 PM CST, moving east-southeast. The 00Z HRRR and RAP have picked up on this, and have been simulating it well over the past couple hours. Projections bring this precipitation into southwest North Dakota around 06Z. Expected types are rain or snow, based on surface temperatures. The Glasgow ASOS recorded a wind gust of 66 mph as the aforementioned precipitation moved through. This precipitation appears to be the extra nudge needed to bring the intense low level winds we have been anticipating down to the surface. Will closely be monitoring wind gusts as the precipitation moves across eastern Montana. If +60 mph gusts continue to be observed, a short-fused High Wind Warning may need to be considered for parts of western North Dakota. UPDATE Issued at 603 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2020 The arrival of strong winds in western North Dakota continues to be delayed from what guidance had previously been advertising. The most recent runs of the RAP and HRRR now suggest winds ramping up over the 02-03Z time frame (8-9 PM CST). Other than the slower start time of strong winds, the ongoing wind forecast and Wind Advisory remain on track. Have only seen sporadic +50 mph wind gusts in central and eastern Montana this afternoon during peak mixing, so agree with the previous forecast that High Wind Warning criteria will have a hard time being reached tonight. Other changes for this update include increasing sky cover this evening based on satellite and webcams, and adding an isolated snow shower mention along and north of Highway 2 as the best forcing from the mid level shortwave moves through. Any snow should move through quickly and be light given a dry lower atmosphere. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 156 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2020 The main issue in the short term period will be the winds. Currently we have a High Wind Watch in effect for the entire CWA. The question will be whether or not the stronger winds aloft (generally 850 mb winds of 50 to 55 knots on both the GFS and NAM) can reach the surface. We know the potential is there with the strong winds at 850 mb and even stronger not far above that. However, there are some indications that the strongest winds will have a hard time reaching the surface. Most guidance is below our current wind forecast, which makes me wonder if we are reaching too far to obtain these winds. The surface low tracks north of the forecast area, with a good surface gradient setting up overnight. Both the GFS/NAM have about a 20 mb difference between northeast and southwest ND around 09 UTC. The cold advection is decent but nothing out of the ordinary. The same can be said for the isallobaric component, with the strongest fall-rise couplet moving over the far southwest in the evening, then tracking along the International Border overnight. Also, the strongest cold advection is basically right along or possibly just ahead of the strongest isallobaric component. Again, good but not great. There are some strong 1000-850 mb lapse rates. They generally trail the strongest cold advection over the south, and line up a little better with the strongest cold advection across the north. This would suggest highest gust potential would be across the north, which is consistent with our previous few forecasts. I've always been a fan of MOS guidance when it comes to winds and both the GFS and NAM mos guidance are showing a period of stronger winds, with the highest (sustained 29 knots) at Minot 06Z (MAV) and 06-09Z (MET). The other MOS points are similar, but not as high. This would put us within Wind Advisory criteria for sustained winds. Would like to see sustained winds a little higher for HWW criteria. However, we still have the gust potential. BUFKIT forecast winds for NAM/GFS are pretty similar. Determining how much mixing we see is the main problem. If you push your momentum transfer potential a bit higher (10mb above the inversion, instead of 1mb) you start to see the 55-60 knot winds making it to the surface. If you keep it lower, they don't mix down. So what's one to do? We've been messaging the strong winds for some time now so whether it's a HWW or a high end Advisory, I don't think there's much difference really. I think there probably will be some (normally windy) areas that see a gust around 60 mph, but will these gusty winds be widespread enough to warrant a HWW. Given the unfavorable timing (diurnal min), the lack of strong cold advection or strong isallobaric component, think we'll go with a high end advisory. We also delayed the timing a bit from the previous forecast. It seems a bit odd, but we are beginning the advisory around 01Z in the west, and this is probably a bit early, and 06Z in the east. We kept the advisory as 2 segments with Burleigh county grouped with the midnight start time, and Morton county grouped with the earlier start time. The precipitation is minimal with this system. Did keep some very light pops along the International border, closest to the surface and mid level trough. The blowing snow model only produced some patchy blowing snow over the Turtle Mountains and southern James River Valley. The latest NAM just coming in, looks even slower with the passage of the upper level trough. This could slow things down enough that the gusty winds may linger into the afternoon Sunday over far eastern portions of the forecast area. Will leave that for later shifts to figure out. The strongest winds aloft will have passed but we could potentially mix out more. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 156 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2020 A clipper system drops southeast from Alberta into southeast Saskatchewan Sunday night, with generally quiet weather and seasonably mild overnight temperatures. The clipper then moves into southern Ontario on Monday, then across the Northern Great Lakes Monday night. This will bring another bout of strong winds to the forecast area Monday afternoon and Monday night. There may be a little light snow associated with the mid level shortwave, but it appears to be minimal, and just a glancing blow with higher precipitation potential north and east of us. There will be some significantly colder air behind this clipper, which will linger through Tuesday as the cold surface high lingers over the forecast area Tuesday. There will be a significant difference between highs Tuesday over the Turtle Mountains, compared to the far southwest (single digits above zero, compared to lower 30s). This gradient in temperatures will continue into Wednesday as the baroclinic zone lingers over the area. A northern stream wave, will push the baroclinic zone east Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, and will also provide a chance of snow, mainly along the northern half of the forecast area during this timeframe. Snow amounts will be light, but could add up to a few inches before all is said and done Thursday evening. Meanwhile, during this same timeframe (Tuesday afternoon through Thursday), leeside cyclogenesis in the central and southern Rockies results in a Colorado low developing over the central plains and moving into the Great Lakes region. At this time these two streams of energy remain separate until they try to merge around the Great Lakes region, which at this time keeps the precipitation associated with the southern system mainly confined to the far southeast CWA as the surface system deepens over the Great Lakes late Thursday into Friday. Beyond Friday it looks like cold temperatures continue with mainly dry conditions. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 603 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2020 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. The big story will be strong winds beginning this evening across western ND, spreading into central ND overnight into Sunday morning. With the passage of a cold front, winds will shift more westerly and eventually northwesterly. The highest winds overnight will be across the northern third of the state, where gusts to 50 kts will be possible. Elsewhere, expect gusts to 45 kts. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 01-12Z for the western half of ND, and 06-18Z for the eastern half. Low level wind shear will also be a concern through Sunday morning. Generally expecting 1500 ft winds reaching 50-60 kts out of the west-northwest. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for NDZ001>004- 009>012-017>021-031>034-040>045. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for NDZ005-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051. && UPDATE...Hollan SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...TWH AVIATION...Hollan/TWH
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Bismarck ND 945 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2020 NDZ001>004-009>012-017>021-031>034-040>045-060345- Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry- McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark- Morton-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux- 945 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2020 /845 PM MST Sat Jan 4 2020/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Tonight A Wind Advisory is in effect this evening through early Sunday morning. See www.weather.gov/bis for additional information .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. NDZ005-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-060345- Rolette-Pierce-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman- Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey- 945 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Tonight A Wind Advisory is in effect late tonight through Sunday morning. See www.weather.gov/bis for additional information .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday A Wind Advisory is in effect through Sunday morning. See www.weather.gov/bis for additional information .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. Hollan
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
7 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Winds gusted to 66 mph at the Hettinger Airport.
Winds gusted to 66 mph at the Gladstone NDDOT site.
Winds gusted to 66 mph east of Mott.
Winds gusted to 62 mph at the Bismarck Airport.
Winds gusted to 61 mph at the Bowman Airport.
Winds gusted to 60 mph at the Williston Airport.
Winds gusted to 59 mph at the Grassy Butte NDDOT site.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in North Dakota, January 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 868377, 868378, 868379, 868380, 868381, 868383, 868384.