What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 29, 6:45 PM EST, 40 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 29, 6:45 PM EST, 40 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 736
PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front bringing showers and a strong thunderstorm or two this
evening will move off the coast overnight. Cooler and drier on
Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the next, stronger cold front will
approaching Friday. Below normal temperatures and dry weather
expected through Saturday. Chance of showers return on Sunday with
temperatures slowly moderating through early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Line of convection is along a line from east of Lumberton to Conway.
This line is expected to move off the coast of northeast South
Carolina within the next 90 minutes and by 03 utc in southeast North
Carolina. The winds are strong behind the front and will slowly
decrease after midnight along with the stratiform rain.
As the front moves off the coast cooler and drier will move into the
area with highs eon Wednesday into the middle 70s and lows in the
middle 50s Wednesday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Slightly below normal temperatures and dry weather will continue on
Thursday as high pressure builds behind the front. Overnight lows
will hover around 60 along with breezy northerly winds. Cold front
will push through the area early Friday with little more than a few
clouds signaling its arrival. Even cooler temperatures are expected
on Friday as cold air advection rushes in behind the front.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quiet weather will continue on Saturday with below-normal
temperatures and overnight lows in the low 50s (a few upper 40s
inland). Little to no precip chances until Sunday as a weak
shortwaves traverses the SE US. If any precip develops, it will
likely remain light and widely scattered with dry air limiting any
significant development. High pressure continues to hold over the
area, but the air mass moderates a bit early next week, closer to
normal.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Line of convection will push into KMYR and KCRE within the hour with
gust of 35 to 45kt and LIFR for less than 2 hours. MVFR and light
rain at these sites until 06 UTC. This line will over across KILM
between 0130 and 0230 UTC. Similar conditions are expect at KILM as
KCRE. KFLO and KLBT will have MVFR ceilings and visibilities through
the next 6 hours before the cold front moves across the sites and
clearing and VFR conditions are expected from 10 UTC on. At the
coast the MVFR and clearing will be several hours later..
Extended Outlook...VFR Wednesday afternoon through the weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Wednesday night... Line of convection will move off the
entire coast within the next few hours. The cold front will move off
the coast overnight and winds will become west to west-northwest and
gusty. It's become a little iffy as to whether or not advisory-
worthy 6 ft seas are going to materialize everywhere especially
across SC waters. Pair this fact with sub-advisory winds and we've
got a pretty marginal SCA in effect right now it seems. However the
upper wave that is approaching is strong enough that winds should
become quite gusty as the front approaches overnight especially with
the still warm SSTs favoring good vertical mixing. Have left
everything in place as-is. A sharp early veer tomorrow will give way
to winds that decrease considerably through the afternoon.
Thursday through Sunday... Cold front approaching the area on
Thursday and Thursday night will bring southerly winds and a
tightening pressure gradient as high pressure builds. As the front
pushes through the area, southerly and SW winds will become
northerly by Friday morning. As stronger high pressure builds into
the area on Saturday evening and Sunday, NE winds will surge to 15-
20 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Waves will build 4-5 feet, possibly
reaching 6 feet and SCA conditions over the NC coastal waters.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
Wednesday for NCZ107.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-
252- 254-256.
&&
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...7
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...43
MARINE...7/21
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 29, 2:37 PM EST, 4 hours 48 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
337 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020
NCZ087-096-099-105-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-058-059-301945-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Inland Brunswick-Marlboro-
Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-Inland Georgetown-
Central Horry-Northern Horry-
337 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
NCZ107-301945-
Inland New Hanover-
337 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
EDT WEDNESDAY...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Coastal Flood Advisory.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
AMZ250-252-254-256-301945-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
337 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Small Craft Advisory.
Marine visibility may be reduced to less than a 1/2 NM late tonight
in heavy rain showers and isolated TSTMs.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Small Craft Advisory.
Small Craft Advisory likely Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Periods of heavy rain Tuesday night and early Wednesday will
restrict marine visibility.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
NCZ106-108-110-SCZ054-056-301945-
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Brunswick-Coastal Horry-
Coastal Georgetown-
337 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Sep 29, 4:11 PM EST, 3 hours 14 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
511 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020
SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-292200-
Marion SC-Williamsburg SC-Marlboro SC-Dillon SC-Florence SC-
Darlington SC-
511 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR FLORENCE...SOUTHWESTERN DILLON...
DARLINGTON...NORTHWESTERN MARION...MARLBORO AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES
UNTIL 600 PM EDT...
At 511 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Chesterfield to near Pinopolis. Movement
was northeast at 35 mph.
Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Florence, Bennettsville, Hartsville, Lake City, Darlington,
Kingstree, Andrews, Timmonsville, Mccoll, Pamplico, Lamar, Quinby,
Clio, Brownsville, Cades, Darlington Raceway, Swift Creek, Nesmith,
Chavistown and Floyd.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storms pass.
&&
LAT...LON 3453 7983 3461 7978 3481 7993 3481 7968
3469 7954 3352 7950 3332 7968 3350 7996
3350 8010 3377 8000 3388 7988 3394 7997
3399 7989 3415 8015 3423 8011 3436 8018
3433 8024 3437 8029
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 237DEG 29KT 3479 8004 3323 8008
VAOSpecial weather statement, Sep 29, 5:14 PM EST, 2 hours 11 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
614 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020
NCZ087-096-099-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-054>056-058-059-292315-
Columbus NC-Robeson NC-Bladen NC-Northern Horry SC-Marlboro SC-
Dillon SC-Darlington SC-Central Horry SC-Marion SC-
Coastal Georgetown SC-Florence SC-Coastal Horry SC-
Inland Georgetown SC-
614 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020
...STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
At 608 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hoffman to near Mechanicsville to near
Johnsonville. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.
This line is expected to be near a line from Saint Pauls to Tabor
City to Georgetown by 730 pm.
These thunderstorms have the capability of producing isolated winds
in the excess of 50 mph.
People attending Conway Medical Center may be affected by this storm
and are urged to follow the precautionary measures of the onsite
officials.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storms pass.
&&
LAT...LON 3495 7903 3469 7881 3446 7891 3384 7862
3359 7903 3335 7915 3330 7967 3378 7932
3381 7969 3389 7995 3395 7997 3399 7989
3403 7997 3449 7994 3461 7978 3480 7993
3463 7946 3477 7933 3484 7935 3483 7919
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 230DEG 44KT 3511 7955 3441 7969 3382 7953
HAWKINSSpecial weather statement, Sep 29, 5:17 PM EST, 2 hours 8 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
617 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020
SCZ039-292230-
Williamsburg SC-
617 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR EASTERN WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM EDT...
At 616 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Indiantown, or 14 miles east of Kingstree, moving northeast at 40
mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Andrews, Hemingway, Rhems, Warsaw, Nesmith, Morrisville, Indiantown,
Henry and Stuckey.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.
&&
LAT...LON 3383 7978 3384 7975 3382 7973 3381 7969
3382 7964 3381 7963 3378 7950 3378 7944
3380 7940 3382 7938 3381 7935 3380 7933
3378 7932 3377 7934 3369 7941 3360 7944
3357 7943 3352 7950 3349 7955 3341 7961
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 241DEG 35KT 3369 7957
VAOSpecial weather statement, Sep 29, 6:14 PM EST, 1 hour 11 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
714 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020
NCZ087-096-099-SCZ024-033-054-058-059-300015-
Robeson NC-Columbus NC-Bladen NC-Marion SC-Northern Horry SC-
Dillon SC-Coastal Horry SC-Central Horry SC-
714 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ROBESON...WESTERN BLADEN...WESTERN
COLUMBUS...DILLON...HORRY AND MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...
At 714 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Shannon to near Bucksville. Movement was
northeast at 35 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Lumberton, Conway, Marion, Dillon, Whiteville, Mullins, Red Springs,
Red Hill, Socastee, Horry, Pembroke, Fairmont, Tabor City, Maxton,
Loris, St. Pauls, Chadbourn, Bladenboro, Bethel and Latta.
People attending Conway Medical Center, and Columbus Regional
Facility may be affected by this storm and are urged to follow the
precautionary measures of the onsite officials.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storms pass.
&&
LAT...LON 3495 7903 3490 7894 3484 7890 3485 7866
3397 7863 3396 7865 3393 7864 3362 7912
3365 7912 3366 7915 3370 7918 3369 7925
3372 7929 3378 7932 3382 7931 3386 7938
3463 7946 3477 7933 3484 7935 3483 7919
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 228DEG 31KT 3485 7914 3372 7911
VAO