Puerto Rico, 2020

Rip Currents in Puerto Rico, September 29, 2020

September 29, 2020 · NWS SJU · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

A male drowned at Poza Las Mujeres Beach in Manati and Tourist couple swept away by rip currents at La Concha Beach in San Juan with the female rescued and male drowning.

The toll

Deaths
2
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.

A male drowned at Poza Las Mujeres Beach in Manati and Tourist couple swept away by rip currents at La Concha Beach in San Juan with the female rescued and male drowning.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 29, 11:28 AM AST, 3 hours 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 29, 11:28 AM AST, 3 hours 32 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1128 AM AST Tue Sep 29 2020

.UPDATE...Most of the lower clouds cleared off the area this
morning, leaving a high layer to filter sunlight but allow more
heating. The morning sounding at 29/12Z from San Juan showed a
somewhat dry layer all the way up to about 19 kft with the lowest
relative humidity of 38 percent at about 13 kft. Winds reached
25-26 knots at 2300 feet and 16 kft. These were all east southeast
to SE. Lifted index was minus 6 with forecast surface CAPE of
around 2700 J/Kg. This was more than yesterday morning but less
than yesterday evening. Precipitable water was still a respectable
1.94". With southeast flow, expect temperatures to move into the
lower 90s in many lower elevations today, until local convection
can cool things off. Once things get going this afternoon expect
isolated to scattered thunderstorms as well.

With the tropical wave still expected to move across the area
Wednesday, still see considerable rain for the northwest and
interior of Puerto Rico and downstream from local promontories
and islands. Temperatures then should be a little cooler.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA with areas of mtn obscurations now in SE PR and
forming downstream from the USVI in SE flow. Expect TSRA/+SHRA to
dvlp interior and NW PR aft 29/17Z with mtn obscurations and areas
of MVFR/IFR. TJBQ/TJMZ likely to have brief MVFR. Sfc winds 8-15
kt with hir gusts on the coasts, bcmg aft 29/23Z 5-12kt. Max Winds
ESE-SE arnd 26 knots at FL023 and FL155 diminishing somewhat
during the next 18 hrs.

&&

.MARINE...Winds over the area have begun to increase with 15 to 20
knots seen at some stations. Moderate rip current risks will
spread around the coast during the next several days. Seas will
also become more choppy, but at this time, areas of 7 foot seas
are not expected until Thursday or Thursday night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM AST Tue Sep 29 2020/

SYNOPSIS...Trailing edge of a tropical wave will continue to
produce showers and thunderstorms across the local area today.
Surface high pressure across the central Atlantic will bring
moderate easterly winds for the next several days. Weak upper
trough will strengthen by Thursday, causing an increase in
instability.

SHORT TERM...Tuesday through Thursday...

Cloudiness associated with an exiting tropical wave continues to
linger across the skies. This wave generated moderate to heavy
showers over portions of eastern PR and USVI through the
overnight, as well as some thunderstorms with frequent lightning.
However, a drier air mass moved into the islands, tapering most of
the activity and limiting additional shower development. Although
the mid-levels are expected to remain drier than yesterday, at
the surface, additional pockets of moisture are expected to filter
in over the islands through the day. In facts, precipitable water
values are expected to remain around 1.9 to 2.0 inches.
Additionally, an upper level trough to the northeast of the
Caribbean is maintaining cold temperatures aloft. As a result,
some showers are expected to move in over eastern portions of the
forecast area early in the day, followed by afternoon convection
developing over the interior, northwestern Puerto Rico, from El
Yunque toward the San Juan metro area, and with stream-like
showers developing from the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques and
Culebra. Since some soils are saturated from previous rainfall,
urban and small stream flooding will be possible with the
strongest activity.

On Wednesday, a mid-level trough will be moving nearby or just to
the east of the islands, while another tropical wave approaches. In
general, the environment will remain favorable for rainfall
formation over the forecast area. However, there are some
discrepancies between the models on where the rain will be
concentrated. Nevertheless, expect another round of showers and
thunderstorms moving over the local waters and over land through the
day. For Thursday, conditions are expected to improve as a drier air
mass reaches the area. Saharan dust will be embedded in this
airmass, turning skies hazy. In terms of winds, a surface high
pressure over the western Caribbean will strengthen, thus tightening
the gradient over the area, causing stronger winds on Wednesday and
Thursday.

LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday...

Somewhat drier air is expected to move in on Friday, perhaps with
some Saharan dust, which could limit the shower and thunderstorm
activity across the area. However, there is a tilted upper level
trough that could help in the development of thunderstorms over
the general area. This upper trough is forecast by the global
models to remain near the local islands through the long term
period, with the latest model run being more aggressive than the
model run from yesterday. There is also a strong SFC high
pressure in the central Atlantic that will dominate the local wind
flow, keeping us observing east to east southeast winds. That
said, the SFC high will move into the eastern Atlantic by early
next week, but the winds will remain from the east to east
southeast. The available moisture is expected to be near normal on
Friday and Saturday, but increasing to above normal from Sunday
onward. So given the current setup, we can expect morning and
overnight isolated to scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms over the waters, near the USVI and eastern PR, while
each afternoon, showers and thunderstorms can be expected across
portions of central and western PR and areas of sea breeze
convergence.

AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail for most of the period. A tropical wave
will cause VCSH for most terminals early in the day. Then, after
29/18Z VCTS are expected at TJSJ/TJBQ which could result in low
ceilings and VIS reduction. Winds are expected out of the east at 10
to 20 knots with stronger gusts.

MARINE...Winds will increase up to 20 knots with choppy seas up
to 6 feet. Therefore, small craft operators are urged to exercise
caution. Choppy seas and moderate to fresh winds will continue for
the next few days. There is a moderate risk of rip currents for
most of the local beaches today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  79  90  79 /  60  60  60  50
STT  88  80  89  81 /  50  60  70  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...WS
LONG TERM....MB
PUBLIC DESK...RVT
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 29, 5:21 AM AST, 9 hours 39 minutes before
Perspectivas sobre Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
354 AM AST martes 29 de septiembre de 2020

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-300800-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-
Este Interior-Norte Central-Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-
Noroeste-Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-
Aguas cercanas y mar afuera del Atlantico y Caribe-
354 AM AST martes 29 de septiembre de 2020

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Tronadas...Existe la posibilidad de tronadas con lluvia
fuerte y vientos en rafagas esta tarde sobre el este, norte, el interior
y oeste de Puerto Rico, incluyendo el area metro de San Juan.

.Inundaciones...Lluvias fuertes podrian resultar en inundaciones
urbanas y riachuelos.

.Viento...Vientos sostenidos de 20 mph (17 nudos) son anticipados a
traves de las aguas costeras y sobre las aguas.

.Olas...Se espera oleaje picado hasta 6 pies a traves de las aguas
del Atlantico y los Pasajes.

.Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas
para la mayor parte de las playas locales, excepto el oeste de Puerto
Rico.

.Calor...Se esperan indices de calor de hasta 107 grados sobre las areas
urbanas y elevaciones bajas de Puerto Rico.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...miercoles a lunes

Se espera que continue riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas durante
los proximos dias. Otra onda tropical se acercara a las islas el miercoles,
aumentando el potencial de aguaceros y tronadas. Existe potencial de
aguaceros en las tardes a traves del oeste de Puerto Rico.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion de observadores. Favor de reportar
cualquier informacion sobre oleaje y corrientes marinas al Servicio
Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan mientras siguen las
indicaciones de las autoridades locales y estatales.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-300800-
San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes- Santa Cruz-
Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes
del Caribe-
354 AM AST martes 29 de septiembre de 2020

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses y las aguas costeras adyacentes.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Inundaciones...Aguaceros de moderados a fuertes pudieran resultar en
acumulacion de agua en carreteras y en areas bajas.

.Viento...Vientos sostenidos de 20 mph (17 nudos) son anticipados a traves
de las aguas costeras y sobre las aguas mar afuera.

.Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado/alto de corrientes marinas para
para todas las playas de las islas.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...miercoles a lunes

Se espera que continue riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas durante
los proximos dias. Otra onda tropical se acercara a las islas el
miercoles, aumentando el potencial de aguaceros y tronadas.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion de observadores. Favor de reportar
cualquier informacion sobre oleaje y corrientes marinas al Servicio
Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan mientras siguen las
indicaciones de las autoridades locales y estatales.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 29, 10:03 AM AST, 4 hours 57 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1003 AM AST TUE SEP 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     LIGHTNING        SAN SEBASTIAN           18.34N 67.00W
09/28/2020                   SAN SEBASTIAN      PR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LIGHTNING STRUCK A WOODEN HOUSE IN GUACIO A SUBURB OF SAN
            SEBASTIAN. THE HOUSE WAS TOTALLY DESTROYED.

&&

WSNELL

Event by event

2 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.

Rip Current, San Juan and Vicinity

When
September 29, 3:00 PM AST
Where
San Juan and Vicinity forecast zone
Deaths
1 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by
Newspaper

Tourist couple from New Jersey swept away by rip currents at La Concha Beach, female was rescued and male drowned.

Rip Current, North Central

When
September 29, 4:00 PM AST
Where
North Central forecast zone
Deaths
1 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by
Newspaper

A 20 year old man drowned at Poza Las Mujeres Beach in Manati.

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

EventDateAgeSexWhereKind
Rip Current, San Juan and Vicinity2020-09-2925MaleIn WaterDirect
Rip Current, North Central2020-09-2920MaleIn WaterDirect

What these are

Rip Current
A narrow, fast current flowing away from the beach that caused a drowning or rescue.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, September 2020

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 954727, 954726.