What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 24, 4:06 PM EST, 1 hour 2 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 24, 4:06 PM EST, 1 hour 2 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
506 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper ridge will continue over the East Coast to start the week
while a weak back door cold front arrives tonight. A moist wedge-
like weather pattern will set up through at least midweek. Unsettled
weather will continue through the end of the week, as another cold
front approaches from the northwest.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 500 pm Sunday: Widespread thunderstorms continue with a myriad
of outflow boundaries assisting in new development across the
Piedmont. The forecast later this evening may be a bit overdone
with thunderstorm coverage for portions of the Upstate into
North Carolina where we have burned through much of our
instability.
Otherwise, scattered to numerous convection has developed
across the Blue Ridge this afternoon, w/in an air mass
characterized by sbCAPE of around 2500 J/kg. A few updrafts have
briefly reached objective warning criteria already this
afternoon, and pulse severe convection will continue to be the
primary concern going forward, as weak shear and downdraft CAPE
in the 500-1000 J/kg range should produce favorable conditions
for collapsing cells/microbursts. Marginally large hail will
also be possible with the stronger updrafts. Thus far, weak
steering currents (SW mean cloud-bearing winds < 10 kts) has
yielded very slow cell movement and locally heavy rainfall.
However, as outflow air matures/expands, boundaries should begin
to initiate new cells and begin to carry activity steadily east
across the foothills and far northern/western Piedmont from
late afternoon into the evening hours. With FFGs remaining quite
low...1 hour of around 2" across much of the area.... a
localized hydro threat will exist...especially along and near
the Blue Ridge. Meanwhile, isolated convection will continue to
fire across the Piedmont...ahead of the main high terrain
activity over the next couple of hours.
A back door front will slide across the forecast area tonight into
early Monday. There remains a concern for the potential of training
cells/localized heavy rainfall as this boundary pushes steadily SW
across the area overnight. However, guidance is sending out very
mixed signals regarding this possibility, and in fact, only the HRRR
and the operational NAM is signaling a heavy rain threat across the
area (mainly the Piedmont) late tonight. Much will likely depend upon
to what degree convection this afternoon/evening will stabilize the
air mass. Nevertheless, a non-zero locally heavy/perhaps excessive
rainfall threat will exist through the overnight, esp across the
Piedmont.
Cooler temps/enhanced cloud cover will yield less unstable air
across the area Monday afternoon, except perhaps across southwest NC
and the upper Savannah River Valley. At the same time, PWATs will be
increasing to above 1.5, while a SE upslope flow (albeit a weak one)
becomes established. The end result should be scattered to numerous
convective coverage across the entire area beginning as early as
late morning. However, intensity of convection...including rainfall
rates should be less than what we're seeing this afternoon.
Nevertheless, a non-zero threat for excessive rainfall will persist.
Max temps will generally be cooler than climo.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1205 PM Sunday: An abbreviated disco as convection has
developed over the NC mtns and staffing is limited. Not much change
was made to the going fcst. Still expect a stg mlvl ridge to
dominate the pattern early on...before giving way to lowering
heights as trof axis swings arnd a closed upper low across TX. This
trof will aide in bringing a tropical wave north along the Atl coast
thru the period. Expect deep convec and high rainfall associated
with this feature which will aide in limiting moisture flux to our
FA Tue. Expect mostly cloudy skies nonetheless each day, which will
limit sfc max temps a couple cats below normal and keep instability
on the low end. Easterly llvl flow will interact with the mtns and
the added lift will generate afternoon tstms which could be good
rain makers Tue in a high PWAT environ over the srn escarpment.
Deeper moisture will moves in across all non/mtn areas Wed and more
widespread showers with isol thunder will develop as the moist flow
interacts with an existing sfc ridge. Some isol hydro issue may be
had across the srn BR by the end of the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Sunday: Starting at 00Z Thursday with the omega block
breaking down and starting to shift east while a 500mb closed low
will be located over eastern Texas. A return of unstable afternoon
and evening subtropical air will replace the wedge-like pattern. The
closed low over east Texas weakens from Thursday into Friday and
begins to get absorbed into the main flow as the trough drops down a
bit from the Great Lakes. A surface cold front will be approaching
our area from the north as plenty of moisture will be in place for
mainly afternoon and evening convection. Expect CAPE values from
1000 to 1500 along and south of I-85 late in the day until the front
moves south. The front is expected to move through our area from VA
to GA during the day Saturday and should be located roughly from
ATlanta to Charleston Sunday morning. Max temperatures near normal
Thursday through Saturday then dropping slightly below on Sunday.
Min temps a few degrees above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Scattered to numerous coverage of convection
has developed across the NC mountains this afternoon. Thus, the most
immediate concern will be the potential for TSRA at KAVL, which is
covered with a tempo through 22Z. Convection has been very slow
moving to this point, but as outflow boundaries mature, convection
should pick up the pace a bit and move out over the foothills during
late afternoon. Meanwhile, isolated small showers have begun to
develop over the Piedmont...generally south of I-85, and visible
satellite imagery depicts congestus in the vicinity of KCLT and the
upstate SC terminals. The forecast thus begins with VCSH at those
sites before transitioning to VCTS at the SC terminals, with a tempo
for TSRA at KCLT beginning at 20Z...lasting into the evening.
Meanwhile, a back door front is expected to slip steadily SW across
the terminal forecast area tonight, and some high resolution model
guidance develops additional convection along that boundary between
midnight and sunrise...esp across the NC Piedmont. This is handled
with introduction of categorical -SHRA along w/ a prob30 for TSRA at
KCLT from 07-10Z. Most other terminals receive a VCSH at some point
Mon morning. Otherwise, lowering cigs are expected overnight with
developing E/SE flow, w/ restrictions likely developing at most
terminals by daybreak.
Outlook: Afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms will be
possible through Thursday. Restrictions are possible each morning
from low clouds and fog, and again later each day under any
thunderstorms.
Confidence Table...
21-03z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 97% High 82% High 81%
KGSP High 100% High 100% Med 76% High 87%
KAVL High 100% High 98% Med 64% High 84%
KHKY High 100% High 91% Med 75% High 90%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 83% High 86%
KAND High 100% High 100% Med 74% High 86%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/65
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JDLHazardous weather outlook, May 24, 2:56 AM EST, 14 hours 12 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
356 AM EDT Sun May 24 2020
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-250800-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
356 AM EDT Sun May 24 2020
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop across the region
today, first forming along the mountain ridges from early to middle
afternoon, then migrating east over the foothills and Piedmont
through the late afternoon and evening hours. These thunderstorms
will all produce cloud to ground lightning, very heavy downpours, and
briefly gusty winds. A few of the storms may become severe, with
damaging wind gusts above 60 mph the primary threat. Any locations
repeatedly affected by the slowly moving storms could experience
localized flooding as well. The coverage of the showers and
thunderstorms will slowly diminish overnight.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.
HG
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 24, 4:15 PM EST, 53 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
515 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020
NCZ051-058-242145-
Graham NC-Swain NC-
515 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL SWAIN AND
NORTHWESTERN GRAHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...
At 515 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Robbinsville, or near Fontana Village, moving north at
15 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Fontana Lake, Fontana Village, Smoky Mountains-Twentymile Creek, Town
Of Santeetlah, Lake Santeetlah, Smoky Mountains-Fontana Area, Tapoco
and Deals Gap.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
LAT...LON 3546 8395 3547 8393 3547 8392 3552 8388
3553 8382 3555 8379 3556 8377 3556 8375
3557 8374 3557 8368 3536 8373 3537 8395
3546 8396
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 181DEG 12KT 3544 8384
RWHSpecial weather statement, May 24, 4:27 PM EST, 41 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
527 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020
NCZ068>071-SCZ008-009-012>014-242200-
Gaston NC-Cleveland NC-Lincoln NC-Mecklenburg NC-York SC-Cherokee SC-
Laurens SC-Union SC-Chester SC-
527 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN LINCOLN...NORTHWESTERN
MECKLENBURG...SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND...GASTON...EAST CENTRAL
LAURENS...WESTERN CHESTER...WESTERN YORK...EASTERN CHEROKEE AND UNION
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...
At 527 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Huntersville to 5 miles southwest of
Lincolnton to 5 miles west of York to 6 miles east of Union to 12
miles north of Newberry, and moving west at 5 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Huntersville, Shelby, Lincolnton, Union, York, Gastonia, Cornelius,
Kings Mountain, Cherryville and Bessemer City.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3436 8184 3479 8171 3506 8154 3547 8157
3551 8096 3549 8094 3551 8088 3547 8078
3541 8077 3530 8121 3498 8124 3469 8135
3449 8145 3449 8149 3445 8154 3448 8156
3453 8164 3436 8179
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 107DEG 6KT 3545 8085 3542 8132 3501 8133 3474
8151 3445 8159
RWHSpecial weather statement, May 24, 4:32 PM EST, 36 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
532 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020
NCZ036-037-057-242200-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-Iredell NC-
532 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN DAVIE...EASTERN
IREDELL AND NORTHWESTERN ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...
At 532 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 6 miles southwest of Yadkinville to 9 miles north
of Huntersville. These storms were nearly stationary.
Locations to be impacted include...
Statesville, Mooresville, Troutman, Harmony, Lake Norman, Lake Norman
State Park, Cleveland, Mount Ulla, Turnersburg and Sheffield.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3605 8059 3551 8076 3551 8091 3549 8094
3550 8096 3553 8096 3553 8094 3555 8096
3557 8096 3559 8093 3561 8094 3562 8092
3564 8095 3605 8078
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 237DEG 4KT 3606 8072 3554 8089
RWHSpecial weather statement, May 24, 4:56 PM EST, 12 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
556 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020
NCZ036-037-057-069-071-072-242230-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-Iredell NC-Lincoln NC-Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-
556 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CABARRUS...DAVIE...
EASTERN IREDELL...SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN...NORTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG AND
ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...
At 556 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 6 miles northeast of Mocksville to 4 miles
southwest of Huntersville, and moving east at 10 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Huntersville, Kannapolis, Downtown Concord, Salisbury, Mocksville,
Statesville, Northeast Charlotte, West Concord, Cornelius and
Mooresville.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3528 8069 3543 8104 3555 8099 3555 8096
3559 8093 3564 8094 3605 8075 3604 8049
3606 8046 3601 8042 3599 8042 3596 8038
3590 8037 3588 8042 3584 8039 3583 8049
3577 8045 3574 8046 3572 8034
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 277DEG 10KT 3594 8046 3536 8090
RWHSpecial weather statement, May 24, 4:58 PM EST, 10 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
558 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020
NCZ068>070-SCZ009-242230-
Gaston NC-Cleveland NC-Lincoln NC-York SC-
558 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020
...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT LINCOLN...
SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND...GASTON AND NORTHWESTERN YORK COUNTIES UNTIL
630 PM EDT...
At 558 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with
torrential rainfall near Gastonia, or near Ranlo, moving north at 15
mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Gastonia, Lincolnton, York, Kings Mountain, Cherryville, Bessemer
City, South Gastonia, Clover, Newport and Dallas.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3498 8108 3496 8139 3515 8139 3516 8137
3517 8139 3555 8139 3556 8115 3555 8101
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 174DEG 11KT 3530 8115
RWHSpecial weather statement, May 24, 5:02 PM EST, 6 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
602 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020
SCZ013-242230-
Union SC-
602 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM EDT...
At 602 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles north of Newberry, or 5 miles east of Whitmire, moving
northwest at 10 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Carlisle, Tuckertown and Santuc.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3445 8155 3446 8155 3446 8156 3448 8155
3453 8163 3468 8168 3469 8145 3466 8145
3464 8142 3458 8143 3450 8142 3450 8144
3449 8144 3449 8148 3445 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 124DEG 9KT 3450 8151
RWH