Flash Flooding and Hail in Kansas, May 24 to 25, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
309 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

A compact convectively-induced mid-level circulation is currently
rotating northeast across northeast KS. This feature coupled with an
increasingly moist/unstable and uncapped airmass is supporting
scattered thunderstorm activity, mainly across northeast KS and
points northeastward. Thinking brunt of activity associated with
this feature will likely remaining northeast of the forecast area
this afternoon.

Attention then turns to scattered/numerous thunderstorm potential
this evening and overnight after about 4-5 PM, especially northwest
of the KS Turnpike corridor. The culprits are a strong frontal zone
approaching from the northwest, in concert with a deep western CONUS
trough approaching slowly from the west, amidst a
moist/unstable/weakly capped airmass. Combination of strong/fat
instability and weak to modest deep layer shear should support at
least embedded supercell structures, with a large hail/damaging wind
threat, especially before about 10 PM. Additionally, per latest
observational trends and RAP short-term forecast soundings, cannot
rule out an isolated tornado threat across central KS, where
enhanced backed flow exists just north of returning rich
moisture/instability.

Over time through the evening, veer-back deep layer shear profile in
concert with big cold pools and mid-upper flow oriented parallel to
the frontal zone should support numerous storm mergers, with main
hazards transitioning to pockets of marginally severe hail, damaging
winds, and very heavy rainfall. Localized flash flooding is
possible. Severe threat should continue to drop off through about 2
AM.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely Monday
through Monday evening across much of the area, as the frontal zone
continues to move slowly east across the region, amidst a moist and
uncapped airmass. Rather meager instability owing to poor mid-level
lapse rates should limit the severe threat, although pockets of very
heavy rainfall are likely given the deep warm and moist
atmosphere.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Seasonably cool temperatures and periodic shower/thunderstorm
chances will persist across the region Tuesday through Thursday, as
the western CONUS upper trough eventually stalls across the Southern
Plains. The threat for widespread heavy rainfall and severe weather
will likely be low during this period given meager instability,
shear, and forcing. Daytime high temperatures look mostly in the
70s. Mostly dry and warmer weather should return Friday through next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will rotate around an
area of low pressure moving north across central and eastern
Kansas this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail thru the daylight hours. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms are expected tonight into Monday morning with MVFR cigs
developing and occasional MVFR/IFR vsbys in storms.

KED

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Slow-moving scattered to numerous thunderstorms will likely
support a handful of areal and/or flash flood warnings across
mainly central KS this evening and overnight. The heavy rainfall
threat will shift and expand eastward for Monday afternoon-
evening, with additional flood and/or flash flood warnings
possible through central and eastern KS. Modest rises on area
rivers and streams are likely, which could support some river
flood warnings. Worst case scenario rainfall brings numerous river
forecast points into minor and moderate flooding across central
and eastern Kansas. Will continue to monitor area rivers and
streams for possible flood warnings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    63  71  58  73 /  60  80  50  40
Hutchinson      61  68  56  73 /  70  80  40  30
Newton          62  70  57  72 /  60  80  50  40
ElDorado        63  71  58  73 /  50  80  70  50
Winfield-KWLD   64  71  58  73 /  50  80  60  50
Russell         57  64  51  75 /  80  60  20  20
Great Bend      58  64  52  74 /  80  60  20  20
Salina          61  69  56  73 /  80  80  50  30
McPherson       61  69  56  72 /  70  80  50  30
Coffeyville     65  75  62  76 /  50  80  70  70
Chanute         65  75  62  75 /  50  80  80  70
Iola            66  75  62  76 /  50  80  70  70
Parsons-KPPF    65  75  62  75 /  50  80  80  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>070-082-083-091>094.

&&

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...KED
HYDROLOGY...ADK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
346 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-252100-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
346 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this evening,
mainly across central Kansas. The strongest activity will be capable
of large hail and damaging winds, along with perhaps an isolated
tornado or two. Pockets of very heavy rainfall are likely, which may
lead to localized flash flooding. The hail and isolated tornado
threat will diminish by around 10 PM, with heavy rainfall and 50 to
60 mph winds remaining possible through about 3 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected once
again across the region Monday afternoon and evening. The primary
threat will be pockets of heavy rainfall, which may lead to
localized flash flooding.

Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will persist across the
region Tuesday through Thursday. The threat for severe weather will
likely be low during this period, although pockets of heavy rainfall
are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotters may be needed through about 10 PM across mainly
central Kansas. Rainfall reports are always appreciated.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
153 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

KSZ070-241930-
Greenwood KS-
153 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northeastern Greenwood County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 230 PM CDT.

* At 152 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 6 miles southeast of Hamilton, or 12
  miles northeast of Eureka...moving northeast at 45 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Eureka, Hamilton, Virgil, Eureka City Lake and Eureka Airport.

LAT...LON 3780 9596 3782 9639 3817 9609 3817 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 228DEG 41KT 3791 9609

DARMOFAL