Scattered thunderstorms developed very late this afternoon and early evening as a hot and humid airmass remained in place across eastern Kentucky. The hardest hit area by heavy rainfall was along the Hal Rogers Parkway and Highway 80 corridor, stretching from Leslie County to Floyd County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms developed very late this afternoon and early evening as a hot and humid airmass remained in place across eastern Kentucky. The hardest hit area by heavy rainfall was along the Hal Rogers Parkway and Highway 80 corridor, stretching from Leslie County to Floyd County.
A portion of Leslie County saw chunks of a roadway washed away, while parts of Perry and Floyd Counties had motorists stranded and rescued by first responders. Residences near Fisty in Knott County were inundated by quickly rising flood waters.
Localized damage occurred in Harlan County near Molus as thunderstorm winds downed 10-15 large trees.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 24, 2:05 PM EST, 38 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 305 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2020 Late this morning, a band of mid level clouds associated with a weak disturbance in south southwest flow is moving across t he areas generally from I 75 and to the west. This disturbance is moving between an upper level ridge centered near the Bahamas and extending into the Appalachians and troughing over the Plains and Rockies. Clouds that were initially over the Big Sandy Region have moved east or scattered with the greatest warming of an increasingly moist airmass occurring over the central and northern portions of the area.Clouds have also been persistent just south of Cumberland Mountain near the TN/KY/VA tri state area. Some subtle height falls are anticipated with afternoon as the weak disturbance moves through the Lower OH valley and into IN and IL this afternoon and early this evening. Dewpoints are expected in the mid to upper 60s this afternoon and evening while temperatures peak in the mid to upper 80s. This should yield MLCAPE in the 1600 to 2200 J/kg range later this afternoon and evening. PW is expected to climb to an average of about 1.6 inches. Steep low level lapse rates are expected, but mid level lapse rates should be 6C/km or less with WBZ about 11kft AGL and freezing levels around 12kft AGL. Shear is expected to be limited near the axis of the upper level ridge generally 15KT bulk and effective if not a bit less. Similar to today and noted by the previous forecaster, pulse storms will again be possible this afternoon and evening with small hail and gusty winds a threat. A stronger storm or two in the second or later generation cells if outflows consolidate when hail nearing quarter size and/or marginally severe winds cannot be completely ruled out. Initiation should occur by the 2 to 4 PM EDT window, with differential heating near the edge of the mid level clouds moving north and perhaps the higher terrain near the KY/VA border in the Cumberland and Black Mountain vicinities being probable locations of the earlier convection. With the lack of substantial shear, storms should be short lived in general though a broken or somewhat linear nature of the storms may eventually occur and move to the northeast across the central and eastern portions of the area. Convection should wane near or within an hour or two past sunset. UPDATE Issued at 712 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2020 Forecast seems to be in pretty good shape so far this morning. No convection is showing up on the radar as of yet, so no need to update ongoing pops. There has been a bit more fog reported in some of the sites across the far S and SE portion of the state early this morning, but it should be lifting during the 7am hour as the sun continues to rise. Loaded in the latest observations for temps and winds across the area, to make sure the near term forecast was on track with the current conditions. This did result in some minor adjustments for the overnight lows in a few locations across the eastern CWA, but otherwise the temperatures seem to be getting back into line with the forecast. All updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 421 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2020 A large ridge of high pressure is located over the south-Atlantic states and will continue to nose in westward across the Ohio Valley throughout the period. Our location on the west side of this system will promote SW to Srly flow into the region. This will couple with light Srly flow at surface as well, with a inverted surface high pressure system parked along and just east of the Appalachians. Temperatures will easily glide into the mid and upper 80s each day, and muggy 80s at that. We shall classify this as a dirty ridge, as it's presence will not translate to dry conditions. Rather, the influx of both warm air and moisture into the region from the south will create unstable conditions, which will spawn showers and even thunderstorms once the convective temperature is met today and again Monday. The latest NAM12 soundings continue to show CAPE values well in the 2 to 3,000 J/kg range throughout the day today and again Monday, with decent lapse rates. Moisture will be confined to the low levels, with drying aloft. However, the missing ingredient for making this a concerning widespread severe day is the winds, or lack there of. Generally light and variable winds throughout the column will lend themselves more to slow moving pulse storms, which could grow fairly substantially, but will also collapse and fall just as fast as they go up. Can't rule out a few stronger storms with small hail, and maybe even a severe or two...but the lack of winds and a driving lifting mechanism (low pressure system or frontal boundary), has kept SPC from upgrading us from just the General Thunder category. Both today and Monday will see an uptick in storms throughout the afternoon, but once the sun begins to set and we lose daytime heating and mixing, convection will quickly decline and dissipate. Much like the ongoing conditions, and those of last night, did keep fog mentioned in the forecast for overnight tonight, especially in the river valleys. The influx of humidity/moisture will lend itself to condensing as the temperatures cool overnight and a near-surface inversion sets up. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 300 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2020 Warm and muggy conditions will continue in the extended period, with primarily diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms expected Tuesday and Wednesday. This pattern will begin to change a bit Thursday night, as a cold front approaches the area from the northwest. Showers and storms will be more persistent and a bit more widespread Thursday night and Friday, as a cold front pushes through the region. The highest precipitation probabilities should occur on Friday during frontal passage. The rain will taper off Friday night, but will showers and a few storms will linger across the southern portions of the area Friday night through Sunday, as the front stalls and drifts north and south through the upper Tennessee valley. Daily highs will be in the low to mid 80s to start, but we will see cooler highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s to end the period, as cooler air seeps into the area behind the departed cold front Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Nightly lows will be in the low to mid 60s the first few nights of the extended, but will fall into the upper 50s over the upcoming weekend, as cooler air makes it way into the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2020 Even with an upper level ridge in place from the Bahamas into the southeast Conus, a disturbance moving around the ridge is combining with daytime heating for isolated to scattered convection developing across the area. This convection should generally dissipate during the 23Z to 3Z window. Heavy with some of the stronger storms, in addition to lowering of VIS and CIGs. Once convection ceases overnight, clouds should begin to scatter out. Fog will develop overnight, especially in valleys near where heavier rain falls through this evening. LIFR may occurring deeper valleys, but there is still some uncertainty as to how much impacts will be experienced at the TAF sites as the fog may lift to these terminals and opted to continue with a few hour of MVFR between 8Z and 13Z. Included a few hours of VCTS at the TAF sites through around 0Z with prevailing VFR. Any direct impact from a thunderstorm will result in IFR or lower for a time. Fog should lift and dissipate by 1330Z with cumulus development late in the period once again near 16Z Winds will be generally be light during the period, under 10 kts, except for stronger gusts up to 30KT in any thunderstorms. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 506 AM EDT Sun May 24 2020 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-251215- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 506 AM EDT Sun May 24 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Thunderstorms will be possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Thunderstorms will be possible at times from Monday through Saturday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours each day. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. JMW/HAL
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
210 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020
KYZ085-087-241900-
Whitley-Bell-
210 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN BELL AND
SOUTHEASTERN WHITLEY COUNTIES...
At 210 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Lot, or 9 miles
south of Williamsburg. The storm is nearly stationary.
Expect torrential rain with these nearly stationary thunderstorms.
Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are also possible with
these storm.
Locations impacted include...
Williamsburg, Bon, Dixie, Siler, Ayers, Gatliff, Frakes, Emlyn,
Packard, Lucky, Wilkerson, Red Ash, Lot, Pearl, Verne, Pleasant View,
Suttons Mill, Yaden, Saxton and Polly Camp.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
LAT...LON 3659 8422 3662 8424 3678 8418 3666 8386
3659 8394
TIME...MOT...LOC 1810Z 203DEG 3KT 3660 8410
JPSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
251 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020
KYZ085>087-241945-
Whitley-Knox-Bell-
251 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BELL...CENTRAL
KNOX AND SOUTHEASTERN WHITLEY COUNTIES...
At 249 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Kayjay, or 8
miles west of Pineville, moving northeast at 10 mph.
Torrential rain is occurring from this cluster of thunderstorms.
Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are also possible with
these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Barbourville, Pineville, Artemus, Swan Lake, Clate, Birdseye,
Barnyard, Gausdale, King, Blanche, Girdler, Rella, Clear Creek
Springs, Wasioto, Avis, Siler, Dewitt, Frakes, Flat Lick and Himyar.
Torrential rainfall occurring with these storms, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
LAT...LON 3662 8387 3667 8405 3698 8387 3686 8357
3671 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 207DEG 8KT 3675 8384
JPSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
335 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020
KYZ112-242000-
Breathitt-
335 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN BREATHITT COUNTY...
At 334 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Sewell, or near
Jackson, moving east at 20 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Simpson, Keck, Rock Lick, Vancleve, Bays, Moct, Sewell, Taulbee,
Mountain Valley, Stevenson and Wilhurst.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
LAT...LON 3767 8328 3767 8324 3755 8324 3762 8345
3765 8344 3766 8343 3768 8330 3768 8329
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 270DEG 16KT 3764 8340
KASThe Knoxville radar (KMRX), 74 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:45 UTC.
6 flash flood, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Ten to fifteen large trees were blown down near Molus. One tree fell across a highway. A number of homes and businesses were without power until after midnight.
Dispatch reported water flowing over Wilder Branch Road in Confluence, forcing the closure of the road for a period of time. This swiftly flowing water forced chunks of the roadway to break apart, while water impacted approximately 25 to 30 homes.
Citizens reported flowing water over streets west of Dotson, causing a few motorists to become stranded. One of the impacted roads was Rough and Tough Road.
Local media relayed a report of water inundating residences on Clear Creek near Fisty.
Local media and citizens reported two areas of swiftly flowing flood waters in and around Bulan. One area was on Kentucky Highway 476 just passed the Bulan Post Office, while the other was on Lotts Creek Road.
A local media outlet reported water of at least half a foot deep flowing over Ogden Branch Road northwest of Hindman.
A citizen reported 1.66 inches of rain in 30 minutes, leading to rapidly rising flood waters from Upper Second Creek near Hilton. As water overspilled onto Upper Second Creek Road, first responders had to perform water rescues.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 883634, 882873, 882875, 882872, 882883, 882877, 882879.