A potent shortwave disturbance aloft and associated cold front allowed for the development of a damaging line of showers and storms. The prefrontal line moved across the area during the late evening and into the early morning hours, producing lots of wind damage.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
A potent shortwave disturbance aloft and associated cold front allowed for the development of a damaging line of showers and storms. The prefrontal line moved across the area during the late evening and into the early morning hours, producing lots of wind damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 11, 8:10 PM EST, 2 hours earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 810 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Gusty southerly winds will develop this afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will push east through the region this evening and overnight. The front will stall over southern NC Sunday, then remain nearly stationary through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 950 AM Saturday... Latest forecast guidance may be trending slightly faster with the timing of the convective line/QLCS through the area tonight through early Sunday. Otherwise, very little changed in the overall thinking and forecast. Through Tonight: An energetic mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains this morning will become increasingly negatively tilted as it moves northeastward across the mid Mississippi and then the Ohio Valley through the evening, and will reach the Eastern Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A developing surface low will follow suit, with the trailing sfc front crossing the mtns and moving into central NC overnight. While the strongest large-scale ascent and dynamics will track north of the area, modest H5 falls of 30 to 60 meters, atop frontal lifting will help to drive a pre-frontal squall line into the area from the west late this evening and overnight. However, increasing spatial separation between the convective line advancing east across central and eastern portions of the NC and the stronger upper dynamics lifting off to the north is expected to lead to significant weakening overnight. A 60-70kt LLJ traversing the region, coincident with increasingly instability on the order of 500-750 J/KG of MLCAPE as BL dewpoints surge into the 60s, will pose primarily a damaging wind threat across central NC Saturday night as the QLCS moves into the area, especially across the western Piedmont, in closer proximity to the better upper dynamics. Owing to the incredibly strong shear, an isolated tornado is also possible, again with the western Piedmont counties in a more favored area. The late arrival of the front and strong moisture transport from the west means that rain chances will remain low through the afternoon, with only intermittent rain showers. PoPs will increase from west to east through the evening and overnight hours. Rainfall amounts between 0.25 to 0.50" highest across the western Piedmont. Thus, no flooding is expected. Gusty winds of 20 to 25 mph will further strengthen to to 30 to 40 mph this evening and into the overnight, ahead of the cold front and squall line. These strong southerly winds and widespread clouds will result in record hi-mins Saturday night with low ranging from upper 50s NW to mid/upper 60s SE. Sunday: The core of the strong low-level jet, which will largely serve as the effective front, will shift offshore late Sunday morning. Initially, drier air will filter into western and central portions of the forecast area through the day. However, the deeper moist plume is forecast to hang up across eastern/coastal NC through the day and will eventually pivot back north in response to a secondary mid-level shortwave ejecting NEWD into Mid MS Valley. This isentropic will lead to continued chances for intermittent rain showers across the eastern Piedmont, Sandhills and coastal plain counties through the afternoon. Although we fall shy of record territory, the unseasonably warm temps will continue with daytime highs averaging 20 degrees above normal. Under varying degrees of clouds and sun, highs ranging from upper 60s NW to lower/mid 70s SE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 310 PM Saturday... Sunday night through early Monday, a quasi-stationary front will remain stalled across the southern and eastern portions of the NC Piedmont, keeping at least on and off shower activity prevalent across the region. With time, the front will begin to shift ever so slightly northward as the offshore sfc ridge is forced further south and sequentially drawn inland in response to the departing mid-level shortwave Monday morning. This will strengthen a slowly maturing southerly fetch, igniting a gradual WAA regime which should persist through much of the short-term period. Shower activity should transition from a more stratiform rain to convective showers with a slight chance of Thunder by Monday afternoon and evening, where skinny CAPE model sounding profiles approaching 500 J/KG ML CAPE and modest deep layer-shear will combine in the vicinity of the slowly migrating front. Any thunder lovers should probably plan for a quick trip to the south and east however, as most favorable areas for a quick, likely sub-severe storm at this point, will be primary east of US-1 with scattered showers more prevalent in areas further northwest of the Triangle. Another batch of moderate to locally heavy showers will spread northeast into central NC Tuesday night/early Wednesday, with the epicenter of heaviest precipitation likely shifting further northwest into the I-40/I-85 corridors. QPF amounts the period will likely fall in the 0.5 (SE) to 1.5 inches (NW) range with locally higher amounts possible. Above normal temperatures will continue through much of the period, especially during the overnight hours thanks to plentiful insolation remaining overhead. A cold front will finally clear the area of moisture at all atmospheric levels Thursday morning, bringing an end to the persistent precipitation chances and returning temperatures back toward normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 310 PM Saturday... The cold front will continue to settle south and east of the area Thursday evening as transient Canadian surface high pressure slides east through the Great Lakes region, briefly extending south along the lee side of the Mountain range. A brief period of CAD-like conditions may result Friday afternoon/evening ahead of an intensifying upper-trough, likely to spread a cold front through the region late Saturday into early Sunday. Temperatures Thursday night will fall to near freezing, with near- normal temperatures likely on Friday afternoon. The exception here may be across the Triad region, which may flirt closer to the 50 degree mark thanks to increasing cloud cover. Increasing POPs likely Saturday and Saturday night. && .AVIATION /01z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 810 PM Saturday... Adverse aviation conditions are expected across central NC from tonight through Sunday morning, as a strong cold front and accompanied line of heavy showers and storms currently in western NC moves through the area. A very strong 60-70 kt low-level jet exists ahead of the front, and this will result in mechanical turbulence that could make flying difficult, especially for smaller aircraft. In addition, surface winds are already increasing well ahead of the line, with GSO reporting a gust of 35 kts at 00z. MVFR ceilings will also continue across the entire area. The line of storms is expected to arrive in the Triad around 03z, and the farther east TAF sites by around 06-09z. As the convective band moves through, expect a period of MVFR visibilities and MVFR to IFR ceilings. In addition, surface winds will be quite strong, gusting as high as 35-40 kts. The line should weaken as it moves east, so the best chance for storms, along with the strongest winds and lowest visibilities, will be at INT and GSO. Conditions will rapidly improve after the front moves through, with decreasing winds and VFR expected by the mid-to-late morning hours across INT, GSO, and RDU. Farther south and east across FAY and RWI, model guidance is showing the potential for MVFR ceilings to linger throughout the day on Sunday, so have kept that in the TAFs there for now. Confidence of this occurring is higher at FAY than at RWI. Looking beyond 00z Monday: Sub-VFR conditions and rain should return to central NC Sunday night through Wednesday as the front lifts back north and stalls out near central NC. However, the exact placement and timing of the front is highly uncertain at this time. && .Climate... Daily record highs and record high minimum temperatures for this weekend, January 11-12 include: January 11 daily record high minimum and record highs include: Raleigh 57/1974 and 76/1890 Greensboro 51/1972 and 71/1909 Fayetteville 59/2008 and 76 1974 January 12 daily record high minimum and record highs include: Raleigh 56/2018 and 76/1890 Greensboro 54/2018 and 76/1907 Fayetteville 58 2018 and 79 2013 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...Badgett/CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...Morrow LONG TERM...Morrow AVIATION...Danco CLIMATE...Badgett
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 943 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020 NCZ010-011-027-028-042-043-078-089-130245- Warren-Halifax-Nash-Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Wayne-Sampson- 943 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph, with gusts to 40 to 45 mph, especially in rain showers are expected tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ007>009-021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086-088-130245- Person-Granville-Vance-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham- Franklin-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee- Harnett-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland- 943 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 19 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Southerly winds will increase to 20 to 25 mph, with gusts to 40 to 45 mph, especially in rain showers. A line of thunderstorms moving into the area from the west could produce isolated damaging wind gusts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Periods of rainfall may lead to increasing flood threat by mid-week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 89 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:10 UTC.
23 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Numerous trees and power lines were reported down across the county.
Numerous trees and power lines were reported down across western portions of the county.
Numerous trees were reported down across the county.
One tree was reported down on City Pond Road near North Carolina Highway 742.
Trees and power lines were reported down along North Church Street near the intersection with North Carolina Highway 150.
A tree was reported down on power lines along Montrose Drive near the intersection with West Market Street.
A tree was reported down in the road at Iron Mountain Road and North Carolina Highway 42.
A tree was reported down on power lines along Bantam Road.
One tree was reported down on Tabernacle Road.
One tree was reported down on Nashville Church Road.
Trees were reported down on power lines near the intersection of Alston Bridge Road and Old Plank Road.
Trees and power lines were reported down at Hesters Store Road and L and J Wrenn Road.
One tree was reported down on Saint Pauls Road.
A tree was reported down on power lines near the intersection of Saddle Seat Drive at Western Boulevard.
Trees were reported down on power lines near the intersection of Buck Jones Road at Norman Place.
Trees were reported down on power lines along Price Hocutt Road.
Trees were reported down on power lines near the intersection of North Carolina Highway 39 and North Carolina Highway 231.
A large tree was reported down across Rosser Pittman Road.
Trees were reported down on power lines near the intersection of North Carolina Highway 561 and North Carolina Highway 43.
One tree was reported down on South Parker Church Road.
Two trees were reported down on Johnson Mill Road.
Trees were reported down on a power line along Red Oak Road near Pig Basket Creek.
A tree fell on a house on McPhail Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, January 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 873204, 873201, 873202, 873210, 873222, 873223, 873224, 873225, 873244, 873245, 873247, 873249, 873252, 873654, 873655, 873656, 873657, 873660, 873661, 873658, 873659, 873662, 873663.