Upper ridge across the western US provided a NW flow regime into the the forecast area. Complex dropping over the eastern extension of the ridge out of NM provided enough surface forcing along cold pools centered over the eastern NM plains.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
Upper ridge across the western US provided a NW flow regime into the the forecast area. Complex dropping over the eastern extension of the ridge out of NM provided enough surface forcing along cold pools centered over the eastern NM plains. Strong wind gusts were the primary concern with high downdraft CAPE environment available.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 30, 10:28 PM MST, 2 hours 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1228 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 .DISCUSSION... See 06z aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... There is a slight chance of TSRA tonight and again Friday afternoon and evening but location and timing are uncertain so will leave out for now. VFR conditions are expected outside of storms. Winds are somewhat variable ranging from the southeast to the southwest with some gusts. Expect winds to become more northeasterly by morning then turn more toward the east later in the day. && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 209 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020/ DISCUSSION... Today's diurnal heating cycle is expected to yield isold-sct TSRA from Lea Co ewd across the nrn PB thru around 03Z, in proximity to a surface boundary, and in the GDP-Davis Mtns. Thermodynamic and kinematic fields are favorable for a few strong/severe storms. Meanwhile a favorable mid-level pattern for precip/boundaries is in place courtesy of a long fetch of nw flow aloft. After 03Z this evening a 2nd round of storms are expected to drop s-sw thu the S Plains along with a well defined cold pool enhanced cold front. Assocd convection will mostly likely be confined to the nrn CWFA, probably dissipating TSRA/SHRA close to parts of I-20 corridor between 12Z-18Z/Fri. Assocd morning clouds and boundary does set up Fri PM to be noticeably cooler than today. Cooler temps will preclude convective initiation Fri PM, however a minor shrtwv trof in nw flow is progged to move s-se Fri night/Sat AM and a cluster of storms may drop down into SE NM/GDP Mtns/NW PB. Location could change, hard to say ATTP since there is not much of a low-level jet signal farther e across PB. SB instability will have a better chance to materialize Sat PM (warmer temps). There is an upper- level shrtwv trof evident at 3h (not so much at 5h) and NAM12/GFS initiate isold-sct storms by 21Z Sat across PB and in the mtns. Bulk shear of 35kts does support strong/severe storms. Sun looks to be a pretty good set-up for diurnally driven storms to form in the Highlands of NE NM during the afternoon and then moving s-se, favoring nocturnal storms in SE NM/NW PB late Sun night/early Mon AM. Assocd boundary may then serve as focus farther se across PB for storms Mon PM and cooler high temps? By Wed nw flow pattern starts to diminish as subtropical ridge builds ewd and high temps start to increase. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 70 95 71 97 / 20 20 20 10 Carlsbad 72 97 71 97 / 40 30 40 20 Dryden 75 99 73 100 / 10 20 0 10 Fort Stockton 71 96 71 97 / 20 20 10 20 Guadalupe Pass 68 88 68 88 / 40 20 40 20 Hobbs 68 94 68 94 / 30 20 30 10 Marfa 63 91 63 91 / 10 40 20 40 Midland Intl Airport 72 96 71 97 / 20 20 20 10 Odessa 73 97 72 98 / 20 20 20 10 Wink 73 99 72 100 / 30 20 20 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && 99/99/99
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 140 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082- 270>282-311845- Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains- Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines- Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler- Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell- Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County- Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains- Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin- Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County- 140 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 /1240 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2020/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible today after 4 pm across the northern Permian Basin and southeastern New Mexico. A few storms could be strong with downburst winds, hail, cloud to ground lightning and brief heavy rain. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in Midland, can be found on the internet at... https://weather.gov/midland
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 146 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 07:41 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Strong thunderstorm embedded within a line of storms moving from NW to SE across SE New Mexico provided a severe wind gust at the Tatum mesonet in northern Lea county NM.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, July 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 904773.