New Mexico, 2020Drought in New Mexico, February 1 to 29, 2020
February 1 to 29, 2020 · NWS ABQ · 6 events in 6 counties and zones
Moderate to severe drought conditions across portions of western and northern New Mexico at the end of January 2020 continued in February. Moderate to severe drought conditions improved to about 29 percent of the state of which 12 percent across northwestern and northeastern NM was deemed as severe drought.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
Open the live radar over this ground
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 6
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Moderate to severe drought conditions across portions of western and northern New Mexico at the end of January 2020 continued in February. Moderate to severe drought conditions improved to about 29 percent of the state of which 12 percent across northwestern and northeastern NM was deemed as severe drought. A couple significant storm systems early in the month brought widespread snow to the area which helped most of the state record above average precipitation. However, areas of the state where drought conditions are the worst continued to receive below normal precipitation. Precipitation amounts across western New Mexico during February generally ranged from one half to one inch with locally higher amounts across the higher terrain. Central NM generally received one half to three quarters of an inch of precipitation while areas across the northern high terrain received amounts near to above an inch. Eastern NM as well as the northwest corner of the state received the least amount of precipitation with amounts generally less than half an inch.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 10:23 PM MST, 1 hour 37 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 10:23 PM MST, 1 hour 37 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1023 PM MST Fri Jan 31 2020
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Moderately breezy conditions will subside this evening for many
locations, but drainage winds will prove to be gusty at KSAF
throughout the morning hours Saturday. Batches of high clouds will
occasionally move into the state, but VFR conditions will prevail
over the next 24 to 36 hours.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...232 PM MST Fri Jan 31 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm weekend will continue with highs reaching the 50s to 60
across western and central New Mexico and to near 70 across the
eastern plains Sunday. Strong westerly winds and low humidity will
allow for elevated fire weather through eastern New Mexico as well
Sunday. A cold and potent winter storm system will bring the warmth
to an end Monday with snow entering into the northwestern third of
the state. This will spread through the central mountain chain Monday
night and through eastern New Mexico early Tuesday. Snow levels will
fall to valley floors with light to moderate snow and gusty winds
causing hazardous travel conditions Monday night through Tuesday.
Bitter cold settles in Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with a
warming trend thereafter through the end of the work week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
Significant warming trend this weekend as strengthening high
pressure aloft west of NM tonight shifts eastward and gradually
flattens through late Saturday. Rising heights/warming aloft will
result in impressive inversions. Trended below guidance on MinT at
most valley locales/usual cold sinks. NBM looked reasonable for
tonight, but is far more aggressive with warming Saturday night as
compared to GFS, NAM and ECMWF MOS. Only other forecast concern will
be breezy to locally windy conditions developing Sunday afternoon
across mainly northeast areas beneath a stronger zonal flow aloft
and associated deepening of the lee-side surface trough. Downslope
warming/drying will boost temperatures to unseasonably mild readings
across the east on Sunday with plenty warm readings across west
owing to better mixing. If you like Saturday, then Sunday will be
even warmer and the warmest day next week. KJ
LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A major shift in the weather pattern is still on track to arrive
Monday. Deterministic runs of the GFS and ECMWF continue to have good
support from their respective ensemble means with a cold and potent
532dm H5 low digging down into the Great Basin Monday with
precipitation entering into far northwest NM Monday afternoon. There
is a tap of sub-tropical moisture being drawn northward over Mexico,
however the timing continues to a bit amiss for NM and most of it
looks go through the TX Big Bend area. As a result eastern NM looks
to remain dry until Monday night into Tuesday. Considerably colder
air will follow the Pacific front, and this is supported with NAEFs
ensembles being -3 std devs for both H7 and H5 temperatures. As such,
snow levels drop to valley floors through the west Monday night,
with the backdoor portion spreading snow southward through the
eastern plains Tuesday. The light to moderate snowfall and gusty
winds will allow for hazardous travel conditions through a good
portion of the forecast area.
While confidence dips Tuesday night, both the GFS and ECMWF hint at a
second energy max wrapping around the west side of the upper low,
likely keeping snow showers going through portions of western NM into
Wednesday morning. Much colder and drier air advects into NM during
Wednesday with temperatures struggling to warm up despite the
clearing conditions. Lows Wednesday night will be the coldest of the
forecast period, and perhaps for the season thus far? Whatever your
coldest night so far this winter has been, it could be that cold
again Wednesday morning. Temperatures warm from their on out through
the rest of the work week with highs climbing back to the upper 40s
to 50s through western and central NM and 60s in the east on Friday.
41/24
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Ventilation will remain poor for all but portions of eastern NM on
Saturday before improving most areas Sunday, especially the east,
and areawide on Monday. Potential for elevated if not briefly
critical fire weather conditions across the northeast plains Sunday
afternoon as gusty winds combine with unseasonably warm temperatures
and low RH. Sunday's high temperatures, warmest day of the upcoming
week, will approach 25 degrees above seasonal across the northeast.
A change toward much colder and unsettled weather is expected
beginning Monday with sharp changes during the Monday night through
Wednesday period as a cold upper level storm system and associated
cold front impact the area. Drier and warmer for the latter half of
the work week. KJ
41
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 31, 10:22 AM MST, 13 hours 38 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1022 AM MST Fri Jan 31 2020
NMZ201>241-011200-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
1022 AM MST Fri Jan 31 2020
This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
No hazardous weather is expected.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday
Southwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph will impact
areas south of Interstate 40 ahead of a powerful cold front moving in
from the west on Monday. Temperatures will plummet behind the front
with light to moderate snow developing over northern and western New
Mexico Monday through Monday night. Forecast confidence is moderate
to high for winter storm impacts over at least northern and western
New Mexico Monday night.
Confidence deteriorates considerably Tuesday through Wednesday on
how this winter storm evolves over the region. However, there are
indications that widespread significant impacts are possible during
this period with very cold temperatures, snow, and wind.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated.
Drought, Northwest Plateau
- When
- February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 29, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Northwest Plateau forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 36.045, -108.291 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Severe drought conditions from January 2020 continued in February.
Drought, West Central Plateau
- When
- February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 29, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- West Central Plateau forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 34.803, -108.222 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Severe drought conditions from January 2020 continued in February.
Drought, Northwest Highlands
- When
- February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 29, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Northwest Highlands forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 36.072, -107.535 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Severe drought conditions from January 2020 continued in February.
Drought, Far Northwest Highlands
- When
- February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 29, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Far Northwest Highlands forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 36.236, -107.293 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Severe drought conditions from January 2020 continued in February.
Drought, Far Northeast Highlands
- When
- February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 29, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Far Northeast Highlands forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 36.308, -104.796 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Severe drought conditions from January 2020 continued in February.
Drought, Union County
- When
- February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 29, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Union County forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 36.482, -103.471 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Severe drought conditions from January 2020 continued in February.
- Drought
- A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Flood in Ohio, February 1 to 29, 2020$10 million · 1 event
- High Wind in Idaho, February 1, 2020$332,000 · 60 kt wind · 8 events
- High Wind in Montana, February 1, 2020$95,000 · 65 kt wind · 6 events
- Wildfire and High Wind in Montana, February 1, 202077 kt wind · 32 events
- Drought in Texas, February 1 to 18, 202016 events
- Drought in Texas, February 1 to 29, 202015 events
- Dense Fog in Virginia, February 1, 202011 events
- Heavy Snow and High Wind in Montana, February 1 to 3, 202053 kt wind · 11 events
- Drought in Texas, February 1 to 29, 20209 events
- Dense Fog in Maryland, February 1, 20207 events
- High Wind in Wyoming, February 1, 202070 kt wind · 7 events
- Flooding in South Dakota, February 1 to 20, 20206 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 871695, 871696, 871697, 871698, 871699, 871700.