Wildfire and High Wind in Montana, February 1, 2020

Name: Wildfire and High Wind in Montana, February 1, 2020
Start: 2020-02-01T02:30
End: 2020-02-01T17:04
Location: Montana

February 1, 2020 · NWS TFX · 32 events in 16 counties and zones

Strong winds gradually decrease during the afternoon hours over north-central Montana as daylight diminishes and winds aloft begin to relax some. Until then still expect significant impacts across areas with strongest winds including wind damage, reduced |visibility in blowing dust and critical fire weather.

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 32

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TFX wrote it up.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 11:00 PM MST, 3 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 11:00 PM MST, 3 hours 30 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1100 PM MST Fri Jan 31 2020

Updated Aviation and Forecast section

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of strong winds are expected through today over North
Central MT, while above normal afternoon temperatures are expected
across the region. A cold front will move southward through the area
tonight, decreasing the winds and allowing for snow to develop over
the Rocky Mountain Front and across Southwest MT. Below normal
temperatures are expected early next week, but warmer air returns by
the middle portion of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
11 PM Update...No changes to the current forecast. Strong winds have
developed over Central MT as of 11 PM Friday. Expect periods of
strong winds across all of North Central MT from now until Saturday
evening. Brusda

2 PM Update...Rest of this afternoon through Monday...multiple
weather concerns over the period ranging from high winds, fire
weather (see Fire Weather Section), and accumulating snow.

First with respect to high winds. Very, very strong pressure
gradient (with some areas approaching 300 microbars/km, which is the
strongest I have seen in my 3 years here at the NWS Great Falls)
will develop along the Rocky Mountain Front during the evening hours
tonight and persist into the morning hours on Saturday, before
dissipating after sunrise on Saturday as an area of low pressure
across Central Alberta/Saskatchewan slides quickly to the east. This
pressure gradient combined with increasing H700 flow to around 70-
110kts (which is 3 to 5 standard deviations above normal per NAEFS
analysis) and increasing ridgetop stability will lead to very strong
surface winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and Eastern Glacier
County this evening and throughout the overnight hours. These winds
will be especially strong beneath mountain wave activity, which some
models are showing will progress eastward to over the Cut Bank Area
by the early to mid-morning hours on Saturday. While the pressure
gradient will be relaxing Saturday morning across North Central and
Central Montana, deep mixing beneath mostly sunny skies will allow
for widespread sustained winds of 30-50 mph and gusts approaching 60-
80 mph to develop across the remainder of plains. I would not be
surprised if some areas along the Rocky Mountain Front approach 100
mph for wind gusts Saturday morning. With increasing confidence that
high winds will be felt further south, I upgraded the High Wind
Watches for Central and Southern Lewis and Clark, Jefferson, and
Meagher Counties. Travel will become very difficult for high profile
vehicles and those pulling trailers tonight and through the day on
Saturday. Those with outdoor interests, especially in forested
areas, should be aware of the potential for falling trees/branches.

Accumulating snow is then expected to develop Saturday afternoon,
first along the Rocky Mountain Front, before progressing south and
east across Central and Southwest Montana Saturday night and through
the day on Sunday. While future winter weather highlights are
possible along the Rocky Mountain Front and for the Central Montana
mountains given the expected 2-5" of snowfall, I have held off with
any highlights for now given the numerous highlights already out for
the high winds and fire weather here. Further south across Southwest
Montana where strong mid-level frontogenesis will reside and bursts
of heavy snow are expected during the day on Sunday, I have issued a
Winter Storm Watch for all of Beaverhead, Madison, and Gallatin
Counties. Snowfall accumulations in these three counties of of 4 to
8 inches at lower elevations and 8 to 12 inches in the mountains,
are possible. While this Winter Storm Watch covers a rather broad
time period (midnight Sunday through 6am Monday), the bulk of the
snow is expected to fall within a 6-12hr window. - Moldan

Tuesday through next Thursday...High pressure aloft will start
building back into the western United States during this period,
which should help warm temperatures back above normal. However,
there will be more of a moist northwest flow aloft with embedded
disturbances over the forecast area, which will keep a chance of at
least mountain precipitation over the area. - Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1100 PM MST Fri Jan 31 2020 (06Z TAF Period)

Periods of strong surface winds will affect most terminals through
00z Sunday. Low level wind shear likely during any periods of
lighter surface winds through 00z Sunday. Decreasing winds and
lowering ceilings will develop on Saturday evening. Steady snow is
likely to develop over the Rocky Mountain Front Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Bozeman will likely be impacted by IFR conditions by
late Sunday morning. Mountains/passes will gradually become obscured
starting Saturday afternoon. Brusda

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warning will continue for grassland areas of North Central
MT today. Strong winds will make it very difficult to control any
new fires. Expect a gradual surface wind shift this evening to the
west/northwest along with decreasing winds. Temperatures are likely
to go below freezing over much of the region by Sunday morning,
along with higher humidity. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  64  27  36 /  10   0  20  30
CTB  42  57  22  33 /  10  10  30  30
HLN  35  60  28  33 /  10  10  50  40
BZN  30  56  27  35 /  10   0  80  90
WYS  19  36  21  29 /  40  40  60  90
DLN  28  48  27  31 /  10   0  70  80
HVR  40  60  26  35 /  40   0  30  20
LWT  41  60  25  30 /  30   0  40  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 11 PM MST Saturday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Jefferson...Meagher.

High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 11 PM MST Saturday
Blaine...Chouteau...Hill...Liberty.

Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 11 PM MST Saturday Central and
Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas...Chouteau and
Fergus Counties...Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern
Pondera/Liberty...Hill and Blaine Counties...Lewis and Clark
National Forest Rocky Mountain District-Rocky Mountain Front.

Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday
night Beaverhead...Gallatin...Madison.

High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 11 PM MST Saturday
Cascade...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith
Basin...Toole.

High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST Saturday Eastern Glacier...
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jan 31, 9:39 PM MST, 4 hours 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
939 PM MST FRI JAN 31 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0928 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WSW GREAT FALLS       47.47N 111.38W
01/31/2020  M58 MPH          CASCADE            MT   ASOS

            58 MPH WIND GUST AT THE GREAT FALLS AIRPORT.

&&

BRUSDA

Local storm report, Feb 1, 12:38 AM MST, 1 hour 52 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1238 AM MST SAT FEB 1 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1036 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST CASCADE                 47.27N 111.70W
01/31/2020  E63 MPH          CASCADE            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            55 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 63 MPH
            REPORTED.

&&

TP

Local storm report, Feb 1, 2:17 AM MST, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
217 AM MST SAT FEB 1 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W BLACK EAGLE         47.53N 111.30W
02/01/2020  E45 MPH          CASCADE            MT   PUBLIC

            FAIRLY CONSTANT GUSTS AT 45 MPH ESTIMATED,
            CLOSE TO 55 MPH INFREQUENT GUSTS.

&&

TP

Event by event

29 high wind, 3 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Eastern Teton

When: February 1, 2:30 AM MST
Where: Eastern Teton forecast zone
Measured: 70 kt (81 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet

Mesonet station ricmt 4.9 e Pendroy (mcscn).

High Wind, Eastern Glacier

When: February 1, 3:39 AM MST
Where: Eastern Glacier forecast zone
Measured: 77 kt (89 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Department of Highways

Measured 2 SE Browning.

High Wind, Eastern Glacier

When: February 1, 3:45 AM MST
Where: Eastern Glacier forecast zone
Measured: 76 kt (87 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet

Station shbm8.

High Wind, Judith Basin

When: February 1, 4:22 AM MST
Where: Judith Basin forecast zone
Measured: 64 kt (74 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet

Mesonet station mtgys geyser (mt dot) 2 sse Geyser.

High Wind, Eastern Teton

When: February 1, 5:45 AM MST
Where: Eastern Teton forecast zone
Measured: 77 kt (89 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Mesonet

Measured 14 W Bynum.

High Wind, Eastern Pondera

When: February 1, 6:15 AM MST
Where: Eastern Pondera forecast zone
Measured: 55 kt (63 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet

Measured station mtm05.

High Wind, Meagher

When: February 1, 6:55 AM MST
Where: Meagher forecast zone
Measured: 54 kt (62 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet

Measured 4 s White Sulphur Springs.

High Wind, Beaverhead

When: February 1, 8:05 AM MST
Where: Beaverhead forecast zone
Measured: 51 kt (59 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet

Mesonet station hrkm8 Harkness raws.

High Wind, Toole

When: February 1, 8:06 AM MST
Where: Toole forecast zone
Measured: 55 kt (63 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet

Mesonet station mtswt Sweetgrass (mt dot).

High Wind, Meagher

When: February 1, 8:25 AM MST
Where: Meagher forecast zone
Measured: 60 kt (69 mph) measured gust
Reported by: AWOS

Measured 4 s White Sulphur Springs.

High Wind, Judith Basin

When: February 1, 8:56 AM MST
Where: Judith Basin forecast zone
Measured: 61 kt (70 mph) measured gust
Reported by: AWOS

Awos station k1bm bravo.

High Wind, Fergus

When: February 1, 10:52 AM MST
Where: Fergus forecast zone
Measured: 73 kt (84 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet

Measured 7 ese Hilger.

High Wind, Blaine

When: February 1, 12:00 PM MST
Where: Blaine forecast zone
Measured: 61 kt (70 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Trained Spotter

Measured at 10 s Chinook.

High Wind, Madison

When: February 1, 12:00 PM MST
Where: Madison forecast zone
Measured: 55 kt (63 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet

Mesonet station yctim 6.3 w Big Sky (avalanche).

High Wind, Chouteau

When: February 1, 12:15 PM MST
Where: Chouteau forecast zone
Measured: 55 kt (63 mph) measured gust
Reported by: AWOS

Awos station k79s 1.4 ne Fort Benton (gtfwfo).

High Wind, Blaine

When: February 1, 12:15 PM MST
Where: Blaine forecast zone
Measured: 54 kt (62 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet

Station mtm48.

High Wind, Chouteau

When: February 1, 12:17 PM MST
Where: Chouteau forecast zone
Measured: 63 kt (72 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Department of Highways

Measured 1 n Loma.

High Wind, Chouteau

When: February 1, 12:17 PM MST
Where: Chouteau forecast zone
Measured: 63 kt (72 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Department of Highways

Measured 1 n Loma.

High Wind, Cascade

When: February 1, 12:21 PM MST
Where: Cascade forecast zone
Measured: 67 kt (77 mph) measured gust
Reported by: ASOS

Measured 5 wsw Great Falls.

High Wind, Cascade

When: February 1, 1:23 PM MST
Where: Cascade forecast zone
Measured: 71 kt (82 mph) measured gust
Reported by: ASOS

Asos station kgtf Great Falls.

Wildfire, Judith Basin

When: February 1, 1:45 PM MST
Where: Judith Basin forecast zone
Reported by: Public

Grassland wildfire south of Highwood mountains. Start point appeared to be near spion kop wind farm, and start time approximately 145pm based on satellite hot spot and smoke plume detection. Fire made it all the way to the Geyser-Geraldine road, over 7 miles to the east.

High Wind, Madison

When: February 1, 2:00 PM MST
Where: Madison forecast zone
Measured: 63 kt (72 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet

Mesonet station yctim 6.3 w Big Sky (avalanche).

Wildfire, Broadwater

When: February 1, 2:00 PM MST
Where: Broadwater forecast zone
Reported by: Emergency Manager

Broadwater County des reported a fast-moving fire in Confederate Gulch, approx 3 miles ne of mt-284 at 200pm. Reported out at 645pm.

High Wind, Southern Lewis and Clark

When: February 1, 2:30 PM MST
Where: Southern Lewis and Clark forecast zone
Measured: 61 kt (70 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet

Mesonet station dbom8 Dearborn raws.

High Wind, Southern Lewis and Clark

When: February 1, 2:36 PM MST
Where: Southern Lewis and Clark forecast zone
Measured: 61 kt (70 mph) measured gust
Reported by: AWOS

Awos station k1gm golf 14 sw Simms.

High Wind, Fergus

When: February 1, 2:58 PM MST
Where: Fergus forecast zone
Measured: 61 kt (70 mph) measured gust
Reported by: AWOS

Awos station k1om oscar.

High Wind, Hill

When: February 1, 3:00 PM MST
Where: Hill forecast zone
Measured: 56 kt (64 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet

Mesonet station ew1937 Goldstone.

High Wind, Hill

When: February 1, 3:20 PM MST
Where: Hill forecast zone
Measured: 53 kt (61 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet

Mesonet station mtinv Inverness (mt dot).

High Wind, Fergus

When: February 1, 3:32 PM MST
Where: Fergus forecast zone
Measured: 62 kt (71 mph) measured gust
Reported by: AWOS

Awos station k1nm november.

High Wind, Cascade

When: February 1, 3:46 PM MST
Where: Cascade forecast zone
Measured: 62 kt (71 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet

Mesonet station fw1843 Great Falls 10 wsw Stockett.

Wildfire, Fergus

When: February 1, 4:40 PM MST
Where: Fergus forecast zone
Reported by: Fire Department/Rescue

Grassland fire detected on satellite around 440pm and confirmed by dispatch.

High Wind, Gallatin

When: February 1, 5:04 PM MST
Where: Gallatin forecast zone
Measured: 61 kt (70 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet

Mesonet station ylwm8 Yellow Mule raws 7 ssw Big Sky.

What these are

High Wind: Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
Wildfire: A fire burning in wildland vegetation, with its acreage and damage where known.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Montana in 2020 Every state in 2020 This day in weather history Warnings in Montana, February 2020

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 873492, 873487, 873489, 873495, 873488, 873518, 873515, 873530, 873520, 873511, 873505, 873490, 873506, 873523, 873524, 873525, 873496, 873497, 873493, 873491, 873532, 873498, 873533, 873507, 873508, 873509, 873517, 873528, 873499, 873504, 873534, 873510.