High Wind and Strong Wind in Montana, November 1 to 5, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1120 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2020

Aviation Section Updated.

.UPDATE...

Main area for adjustment tonight through Sunday is along the Rocky
Mountain Front and adjacent plains. Winds close to the mountains
and east out towards Cut Bank have remained a bit more breezy than
previously expected, and the forecast surface pressure gradient
should keep these breezy winds there overnight. This will likely
lead to slightly stronger winds over the plains on Sunday, so have
similarly raised them there. Because of the breezy overnight
winds, have increased the lows for the Front a few degrees to
near/just above freezing. However, temperatures in the Great Falls
area have already fallen into the 30s, and winds will be a bit
slower to become breezy there (after midnight), so have lowered
lows to just below freezing. Mid level cloudiness is also moving
southeast into the North Central Montana plains area this evening,
so have increased cloudiness there somewhat so it should be
partly to mostly cloudy throughout the night.  Coulston

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
With an upper level ridge of high pressure building in over the
region, expect afternoon temperatures to be above normal for the
next several days. Additionally, it will become windy, with
periods of strong winds expected from Tuesday through Thursday.
The next chance for widespread precipitation and colder
temperatures moves into the region next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
1120 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2020 (01/06Z TAF period)

VFR conditions will continue across North Central and Southwest
Montana through at least the next 24 hours. Mainly high clouds
will pass over North Central Montana, but it will otherwise be
mostly clear. Increasing mid level winds will cause areas of
mountain wave turbulence over North Central Montana, along with
low level wind shear between 06Z and 18Z on the Rocky Mountain
Front, where surface winds will remain breezy. Westerly winds will
then increase and become gusty over the plains as well after 16Z.
Coulston

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 520 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2020/
Tonight through Monday...Fairly quiet weather will reside over
the region from tonight through Monday. With mostly clear skies
tonight, expect cool temperatures for most areas. On Sunday, it
starts to warm a bit, as surface winds start to become more
southwesterly. On Monday, afternoon temperatures are likely to
range from 10 to 20 degrees above normal for many areas, as
breezy southwesterly winds continue.

Tuesday through Thursday...Overall, a very windy weather pattern
looks to be setting up for the middle portion of the work week.
There is the potential for strong winds as early as Tuesday
afternoon over the Northern Rockies and in the Cut Bank area. The
strong winds start to spread east/southward from Wednesday into
Thursday. By Thursday afternoon much of North Central and Central
MT could be experiencing high winds. The probability of high wind
highlights at times from Tuesday through Thursday over North
Central and Central MT look high at this time. Afternoon
temperatures will slowly cool towards normal, with increasing
chances for showers along the divide.

Friday through Saturday...Cooler air will start to move into the
region by next weekend, ahead of the next strong upper level
trof. The main concern today is the trof for next weekend has
slowed a bit. The latest models indicate the trof might not move
into the region until next Saturday night. The current forecast
for next Saturday is colder/wetter...however some significant
adjustments towards warmer/drier conditions could be made to the
forecast for next Saturday over the next few days should the
slower solutions start to pan out. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  61  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  35  57  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  28  57  31  65 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  22  57  24  66 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  15  50  14  58 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  25  57  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  27  56  32  67 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  27  60  36  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls