A detached lobe of vorticity drifted slowly south/southwestward across the region. Weak forcing associated with it combined with ample low-level moisture allowed showers and storms to develop.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LSX wrote it up.
A detached lobe of vorticity drifted slowly south/southwestward across the region. Weak forcing associated with it combined with ample low-level moisture allowed showers and storms to develop. Some of the storms produced heavy rain and flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 3, 2:35 AM CST, 2 hours 50 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 335 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 For Friday, the primary focus will be on precip chances. A detached lobe of vorticity will drift slowly south/southwestward across the CWA. Weak forcing from this feature with ample low-level moisture will allow for widely scattered precip to develop primarily in the afternoon. Guidance is in good agreement that this will be focused west of the Mississippi River; though, I could not rule out a stray storm in western/southwestern IL. Precip chances will dissipate from north to south Friday evening as the lobe of vorticity exits the area. With the rainfall efficiency and slow speed of storms, locally heavy rain and isolated flash flooding will be possible through this evening. On Saturday, benign upper-level conditions will yield calmer weather relative to Friday. Guidance consensus is that east/northeast flow in the low levels will usher in lower dewpoints, leading to lower humidity and clearer skies. This will allow temperatures to climb a couple degrees warmer than what the area has been experiencing. Elmore .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Thursday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 The Middle Mississippi Valley will remain beneath weak ridging through much of next week, keeping generally consistent conditions in place. The week will begin with surface high pressure in place across the Great Lakes through Monday, resulting in weak NE flow in our region. This should limit low level moisture to some extent and help keep a lid on storm chances. By mid week, deterministic and ensemble guidance is in good agreement showing a piece of weak mid- level energy drifting from the Mississippi Delta into the southeastern CONUS. This will allow for deeper moisture to build back into the region while shunting the surface high away from the region and turning low level winds more southerly. With the deeper moisture, storm chance return to the forecast through the end of the week, similar to seasonal climatology. Likewise, temperatures are expected to remain seasonably warm through the end of the week, with afternoon highs in the low 90s. BSH && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Widely scattered showers continue across sections of central Missouri and northeast Missouri into west-central Illinois. Some of this included lightning earlier this evening, but has since weakened with no observed lightning near the top of the 06z hour. Additional showers and potentially an isolated thunderstorm could develop over central and east central Missouri. Guidance has been very insistent that an area of low ceilings will develop over parts of central Missouri between 08Z- 10Z. Current thinking is that ceiling heights will be around 1,000 feet and will likely linger into mid morning. Another round of scattered afternoon storms is possible on Friday, primarily west of the Mississippi River. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: VFR conditions are expected for the time being. Isolated to scattered shower activity largely remains outside the vicinity of the terminal. Any additional activity looks like it will continue to transition further from the site at this time. Maples && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && WFO LSX
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 413 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-040915- Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO- Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO- Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO- Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL- Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO- Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO- Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO- 413 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible through early evening, especially across central and eastern Missouri. Isolated flash flooding is possible; however, no severe weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. There is a chance of thunderstorms across parts of the area Monday through Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight. Elmore
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
438 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0431 AM HEAVY RAIN CUBA 38.06N 91.40W
07/03/2020 M2.16 INCH CRAWFORD MO EMERGENCY MNGR
REPORT SUBMITTED BY THE EMA IN CUBA, MO.
RAINFALL BEGAN JUST AFTER 1:15 A.M. PER
RADAR.
&&
MAPLESPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
528 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0515 AM HEAVY RAIN CUBA 38.06N 91.41W
07/03/2020 M2.60 INCH CRAWFORD MO MESONET
MESONET STATION FW1328 CUBA.
&&The St Louis radar (KLSX), 96 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:25 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Up to 4 inches of rain fell in a short amount of time causing flash flooding. Lakeshore Drive around Indian Lake was impassable which cutoff access to parts of the community. Numerous other roads in the area were flooded as well.
Up to three inches of rain caused flash flooding in and around the Spalding area. Water two to three feet deep was over Highway M about 3.5 miles west of U.S. Highway 61. Also, a vehicle was stuck in water up to 18 inches deep on Highway H just south of intersection with Highway A.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, July 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 905773, 905775.