Arizona, 2020

Heat in Arizona, July 3 to 8, 2020

July 3 to 8, 2020 · NWS PSR · 6 events in 1 county or zone

Strong high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest allowed for temperatures to reach or exceed 110 degrees during the early part of July. According to the Maricopa County Department of Public Health, 18 heat-associated fatalities occurred during this time.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
18
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
6

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS PSR wrote it up.

Strong high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest allowed for temperatures to reach or exceed 110 degrees during the early part of July. According to the Maricopa County Department of Public Health, 18 heat-associated fatalities occurred during this time.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 3, 2:36 PM MST, 2 hours 24 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 3, 2:36 PM MST, 2 hours 24 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
236 PM MST Fri Jul 3 2020

.UPDATE...Updated Fire Weather Discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms will linger
around Phoenix and parts of the lower deserts through early to mid
afternoon. As high pressure builds into the region, a warming trend
will allow highs to climb back above normal by this weekend, and
continue well into next week. Also a drying trend will not favor
storm development for the holiday weekend or through the early part
of next week. A lack of significant moisture for the rest of next
week will also help to maintain dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Yesterday's disturbance that came up from the south only produced
very isolated and modest area precipitation south and southwest of
Phoenix along with some locally gusty outflow winds. However it also
ushered in a regional wall of very moist air into AZ, including
S-Central AZ. The 12Z Phx sounding showed the moistest airmass so
far of the Monsoon season with a PW that increased to 1.69",
mixing ratio of 11.3 gm/kg and MUCAPE of 567 j/kg. The moist,
moderately unstable airmass combined with a very thin, weak mid
tropospheric disturbance SW of Phoenix to produce some very
isolated showers this morning near Gila Bend and SW Maricopa cty.

Most of this mornings HREF members indicated a chance of isolated
showers and a couple of embedded storms in and around Phoenix and
Gila Cty through about early to mid afternoon and becoming
increasingly isolated for the later half of the afternoon. As a
result expect a lingering slight chance of isolated showers and a
storm for this afternoon. Midday ACARS Phx soundings indicated a
CAP near H5 (that had increased since 12Z) that is making it
difficult for the patchy CU field SW to S of Phoenix from growing
much since the end of the isolated morning showers there. A
gradual drying trend is also underway with PWs already decreasing
with drier air beginning to move into the region. By late
afternoon to early evening expect the chances for convection to
rapidly diminish as high temperatures top out just below normal
near 105. However the scattered storms in the N AZ high country
will wait until the evening before tapering off.

A warming trend gets underway on Saturday as the ridge continues to
work its way west closer to the region and with the continued influx
of drier air. Above normal highs will climb to near 108 to 110 by
Saturday and remains near 110-111 through Tuesday.

The gradual drying trend will last until around Sunday night to
early Monday as the ridge axis retrogrades further to the W-SW. A
modest increase in moisture for early next week will likely not be
enough to dampen the very hot temperatures or to increase any storm
chances. Moisture and instability along the S flank of the ridge
will keep the best storm chances confined mostly to SE AZ and NW MX
for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1808Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

The potential is still there for isolated showers & storms late
this morning into the early parts of the afternoon. PHX & DVT will
have the best chances. Any shower/storm will be very short-lived
and produce brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds. Outside
of any shower/storm, skies will remain mostly clear with few-sct
high clouds mainly above 8-10 kft through the TAF period. Winds
will be light today and favor the southwest to west. Winds will
eventually return back to the east overnight, but due to light
wind speeds, directions will likely be more variable at times.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Skies will be mostly clear with a few high clouds around 10 kft.
At KBLH, winds will favor a southerly component with a few gusts
up to 20 kts possible this afternoon. At KIPL, winds will be
light, favoring the south-southwest with periods of light and
variable wind directions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Monday through Friday:
Overall, conditions will be hot and dry. Daytime minimum humidity
values will drop below 15% for most places while overnight
recoveries will rise into the 20-40% range. Wind speeds will
generally be light, outside of typical afternoon breezes, with
directions following local terrain influences. Moisture will
mostly be insufficient for thunderstorms but a few isolated cells
may form on any particular day, primarily over the White Mountains
and in southeast Arizona. As of now, these locations seem too far
to send any outflow winds into south-central Arizona.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Sawtelle
AVIATION...Feldkircher
FIRE WEATHER...Sawtelle/AD

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

6 heat. Local standard time, as filed.

Heat, Central Phoenix

When
July 3, 5:00 PM MST
Where
Central Phoenix forecast zone
Deaths
2 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by
County Official
Coordinates
33.349, -112.491 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Two heat-associated fatalities were reported by the Maricopa County Department of Public Health, with their details, such as age, gender, circumstances and location unavailable.

Heat, Central Phoenix

When
July 4, 12:00 AM MST to 11:59 PM MST
Where
Central Phoenix forecast zone
Deaths
1 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by
County Official
Coordinates
33.349, -112.491 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

One heat-associated fatality was reported by the Maricopa County Department of Public Health, with their details, such as age, gender, circumstances and location unavailable.

Heat, Central Phoenix

When
July 5, 12:00 AM MST to 11:59 PM MST
Where
Central Phoenix forecast zone
Deaths
3 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by
County Official
Coordinates
33.349, -112.491 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Three heat-associated fatalities were reported by the Maricopa County Department of Public Health, with their details, such as age, gender, circumstances and location unavailable.

Heat, Central Phoenix

When
July 6, 12:00 AM MST to 11:59 PM MST
Where
Central Phoenix forecast zone
Deaths
4 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by
County Official
Coordinates
33.349, -112.491 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Four heat-associated fatalities were reported by the Maricopa County Department of Public Health, with their details, such as age, gender, circumstances and location unavailable.

Heat, Central Phoenix

When
July 7, 12:00 AM MST to 11:59 PM MST
Where
Central Phoenix forecast zone
Deaths
5 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by
County Official
Coordinates
33.349, -112.491 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Five heat-associated fatalities were reported by the Maricopa County Department of Public Health, with their details, such as age, gender, circumstances and location unavailable.

Heat, Central Phoenix

When
July 8, 12:00 AM MST to 11:59 PM MST
Where
Central Phoenix forecast zone
Deaths
3 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by
County Official
Coordinates
33.349, -112.491 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Three heat-associated fatalities were reported by the Maricopa County Department of Public Health, with their details, such as age, gender, circumstances and location unavailable.

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

EventDateAgeSexWhereKind
Heat, Central Phoenix2020-07-03UnknownDirect
Heat, Central Phoenix2020-07-03UnknownDirect
Heat, Central Phoenix2020-07-04UnknownDirect
Heat, Central Phoenix2020-07-05UnknownDirect
Heat, Central Phoenix2020-07-05UnknownDirect
Heat, Central Phoenix2020-07-05UnknownDirect
Heat, Central Phoenix2020-07-06UnknownDirect
Heat, Central Phoenix2020-07-06UnknownDirect
Heat, Central Phoenix2020-07-06UnknownDirect
Heat, Central Phoenix2020-07-06UnknownDirect
Heat, Central Phoenix2020-07-07UnknownDirect
Heat, Central Phoenix2020-07-07UnknownDirect
Heat, Central Phoenix2020-07-07UnknownDirect
Heat, Central Phoenix2020-07-07UnknownDirect
Heat, Central Phoenix2020-07-07UnknownDirect
Heat, Central Phoenix2020-07-08UnknownDirect
Heat, Central Phoenix2020-07-08UnknownDirect
Heat, Central Phoenix2020-07-08UnknownDirect

What these are

Heat
Heat below excessive heat criteria that still caused deaths, injuries or significant impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2020

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 991997, 991998, 991999, 992000, 992001, 992002.