Wildfire in Arizona, July 3 to 25, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
946 AM MST Fri Jul 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Shower and thunderstorm chances continue across
northern Arizona today. Dry weather returns for most locations
beginning Saturday, though far eastern Arizona will have a slight
chance of afternoon thunderstorms into early next week.

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.DISCUSSION...
We're expecting widely scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage
across northern AZ today. Unfortunately, moisture across the
Northland looks to be rather short-lived with drying conditions
over the next few days. In all, the holiday weekend forecast looks
good with no significant changes anticipated this morning.

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.PREV DISCUSSION /341 AM MST/...GOES-17 infrared satellite imagery
this morning is showing clouds across much of northeastern
Arizona. Surface observations at Winslow, St Johns and Window Rock
are noting cloud bases around 10000-12000 ft above ground level.
There could be a few sprinkles associated with these clouds as the
KFSX radar is picking up isolated areas of embedded showers.
Isolated showers remain in the forecast through the mid-morning
hours for areas mainly north of Interstate 40.

The main focus for the morning forecast was daytime thunderstorm
coverage. Large variations existed in the 03/00Z and 06Z guidance
on the chances of precipitation across Coconino and northern
Yavapai counties, so a mix of the previous forecast and a model
blend was utilized to construct the afternoon chances of
precipitation. Shower and thunderstorm coverage is progged to be
greatest west of Highway 89 and north of Interstate 40 in the mid
to late afternoon period. Model forecast soundings for area
cities are showing a more moist atmosphere today compared to
yesterday. These conditions could result in more locations
recording measurable rainfall (> 0.01 inches) from any showers
and thunderstorms. The NBM probabilistic QPF data for today is
showing high chances that most locations, even under the heaviest
shower or thunderstorms, will experience less than 0.25 inches of
rainfall. The primary threats associated with thunderstorms will
continue to be cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and gusty
outflow winds.

Chances of precipitation will decrease through the evening and
overnight hours tonight. A shift to southwesterly flow will limit
isolated thunderstorms on Saturday to far eastern Arizona as
lingering moisture pushes out of the state. Slight chances of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will persist through Monday
for the White Mountains region.

A ridge will begin to build over the Southwest this weekend.
Temperatures will increase through Monday when daytime
temperatures are expected to be around five degrees above
normal. The ridge axis is progged to move east by Tuesday and
return temperatures to near-normal through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Primarily VFR conditions will
continue. Look for scattered showers and thunderstorms into the
early evening hours most numerous along and west of a KPAN-KINW-
KPGA line. Gusty outflow winds up to 45 kts possible near
showers/storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop
again today, especially across northern Yavapai and Coconino
counties. Lightning and gusty outflow winds are the main concerns
as most storms will produce only light precipitation. Storm
chances will be mainly confined to Apache county on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...A low chance for afternoon storms will
continue in the White Mountains Sunday and Monday with drier
conditions developing elsewhere and lasting through much of the
week.

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.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...KD/NL
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff