Flooding in Missouri, January 11 to 25, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
509 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 507 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

The primary forecast discussion delayed this afternoon while in
the process of adjusting headlines and gridded, tabular, and text
forecast for dynamic system this evening.

Surface low is just exiting the eastern Pennyrile of west Kentucky
shortly before 5 pm. There is a narrow line segment capable of
translating some 30 to 40 mph into that area, but the window is
closing for this potential. Had been holding off canceling the
remainder of the wind advisory until this system passed, but may
cancel before 6pm as the surface low moves east of the WFO PAH
forecast area. Noted a 36 knot gust at Fort Campbell at 5 pm CST.

Upper low and attendant precipitation shield continues to move
rapidly northeast, taking lift and thermal instability with it.
There is a razor thin zone in which a wintry mix will be possible
along the western end of the WFO PAH forecast area, mainly the
foothills of southeast Missouri an southwest Illinois. However,
given warm ground temperatures, latent heat release from water
soaked areas, and slowing cold air advection, any wintry mix
would have very limited impact for travel this evening.

The overall pattern will turn southwesterly rather quickly on
Sunday with slow warm air advection in place as the next shortwave
rotates into the Central Plains and to the northeast into the
Great Lakes. With the deep layer moisture suppressed to the
south, the main weather feature on Monday will just be cloud
cover.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 507 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

Forecast confidence for any significant or measurable
precipitation remains average to low for the WFO PAH forecast
area in the extended period. The NBM (National Blend of Models)
seems to be exhibiting a wet bias across the area given the model
composition, although the last several deterministic model runs of
the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian maintain limited northward transport
(isentropically and/or dynamically) of moisture as a series of
fast and low amplitude shortwave skirt northwest of the WFO PAH
forecast area in southwest flow during the week.

For collaborative purposes, had to maintain a low PoP mention
across part or all of the WFO PAH forecast area Tuesday through
Wednesday, then again Thursday night through Saturday. The only
consistent signal has been the chance for thunderstorms on
Wednesday and the chance for a wintry mix late Thursday into
Friday morning. Otherwise, the forecast signal for consistent
coverage of PoPs is marginal to say the least. There may be more
forecast fluctuations as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 106 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

Main challenge is timing and translation of cold front through
KOWB in the short term, impacting the ceiling, visibility, and
mention of thunderstorms during the first two hours of the 18z
Saturday forecast period.

Beyond that attempted to utilize a model blend of predominant MVFR
to upper IFR ceilings during the first 12 hours of the forecast
period. With the upper low transitioning through the area and
intrusion of drier air into parts of the area. Lowest confidence
on ceilings is within the last 6 hours of the forecast period,
which may be too pessimistic.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for INZ087-088.

KY...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for KYZ006>022.

&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Smith

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
522 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-121100-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
522 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Areal flood warnings remain in effect through this evening across
the outlook area. Please see advisories for additional details.

Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is occurring or
forecast across the outlook area. Please refer to the latest river
statements and river flood warnings for additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a chance of thunderstorms late Tuesday night and Wednesday.
A few of the storms on Wednesday could be strong to severe, with
damaging winds the primary hazard.

A mix of wintry precipitation is forecast late Thursday night into
Friday morning. The potential for a light accumulation cannot be
ruled out at this time.

Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is occurring or
forecast across the outlook area. Please refer to the latest river
statements and river flood warnings for additional details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Although hazardous weather has moved east of the area, spotter and
cooperative observer reports of flooded roadways and other flooded
locations, storm total rainfall reports, and wind damage is still
appreciated tonight and Sunday.

Smith