Prolong southwest winds over Lake St. Clair caused lakeshore flooding over northern Lake St.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DTX wrote it up.
Prolong southwest winds over Lake St. Clair caused lakeshore flooding over northern Lake St. Clair from New Baltimore to Algonac.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 10, 2:38 PM EST, 2 hours 22 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 338 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 .DISCUSSION... Numerous reports of wind damage, some significant, noted with the lead convection along the deeper moisture lifting from Indiana into central Michigan early this afternoon. Among other reports, there was an impressive sustained (2-min avg) wind of 54 mph at Saginaw Bay Lighthouse, though the gust apparently succumbed to automated QC. Confidence is high that a widespread damaging/significant severe thunderstorm episode is imminent for the remainder of the forecast area, including Metro Detroit. Bulk shear with severe convection thus far today has averaged a respectable 35-40+ kts per RAP analyses. However, as noted in the morning update, momentum fields can now be expected to ramp up considerably as height falls increase and dynamic forcing rapidly intensifies from south to north during the next several hours. A key element to the rapidly evolving environment that cannot be understated is the shedding of existing anvil debris to the north-northwest. This has allowed uninhibited destabilization to occur over the southeastern half of the CWA. Latest RAP analysis indicates a broadening corridor of 2200-2500 j/kg MLCAPE over the CWA with at least another 1-2 hours of potential quality destabilization remaining. Meteorology remains largely unchanged - ever increasing bulk shear of 50+ kts (especially eastern zones/Detroit area) will support some potential for supercell modes. Given the high degree of instability, hail of the 1 to 2 inch variety certainly possible but greater any greater potential will be limited by rather pedestrian lapse rates on the order of 6-7C/Km and the warm overall thermal profile. Extremely limited availability of streamwise vorticity given deep/veered SSW flow regime suggests the greatest tornado threat, if any, will lie with bottom-up type processes unless an updraft can grab an outflow and and use that as a means to deviate. The greatest threat by far will be straight line winds of 70 mph, locally higher, and the dominant convective mode will be individual downdraft modulated clusters or bows. The potential magnitude of wind will increase with both time and eastward extent. Finally, PWATs around 2 inches will support torrential rainfall and the potential for localized flooding. The progressive nature of overall convective line will prevent widespread flooding impacts, though some training in the Saginaw Valley has reportedly resulted in flooding on I-75 where dual pol indicates 1 to 1.5" has fallen. Similar urban and small stream impacts should be expected elsewhere. Previous...Broad upper level trough on Thursday with sharper trough axis diving south through the Great Lakes on Friday, delivering a good shot of cold air to start the weekend, as 850 mb temps bottom out around zero over Lower Michigan, Per 00z Euro. The cold front coming through Friday looks moisture starved and LI's look to stay just positive. Nonetheless, would not be surprised if shower activity has better coverage than outgoing forecast (slight chance) Friday afternoon into Friday evening. The forecast for the weekend and early next week will hinge on where cutoff 500 MB low center develops, as spokes of energy and diurnal instability will provide for periodic chances of showers. However, the GFS and Canadian solutions are much farther east than the Euro solution and suggest dry conditions and seasonably warm conditions, which looks to be the direction of the forecast for now. && .MARINE... Severe thunderstorms containing hail of 1 to locally 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts of 70 mph (locally higher) will affect the nearshore waters of Lake Huron and the lower waters of Lakes St. Clair and Erie during the remainder of the evening. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect accordingly. The gale warning has been cancelled as the background wind field and overlake instability remains largely insufficient to generate gusts to gales. Gusty southwest flow becomes westerly behind the cold front on Thursday. Elevated offshore wind warrant small craft advisory with some elevated sig waves of 3 to 4 feet likely near the tip of the Thumb by midday Thurs. High pressure slowly builds in on Friday with flow gradually becoming northwesterly. This will maintain favorable boating conditions into the beginning of next week. && .HYDROLOGY... Tropical moisture resulting in torrential downpours/efficient rainfall production with some urban flooding reported in the Saginaw area. Despite the overall progressive nature of the convective line, individual convective elements are moving in a NE direction which has resulted in some degree of training. Therefore, urban and small stream flooding should be expected elsewhere as this airmass will easily produce 1 to 2 inches of rain in a short time. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 AVIATION... Thunderstorm organization and coverage has increased over the last hour from Central Lower Mi into central Indiana. Daytime instability combined with forcing ahead of a strong upper level wave and surface cold front will sustain fairly widespread coverage of convection during the afternoon. The cold front will advance across the Se Mi terminals between 23Z and 00Z. There will be an abrupt drying trend in the wake of the cold front, thus ending the risk of additional thunderstorms. The boundary layer will remain very well mixed both ahead of and in the wake of the cold front. South winds this afternoon will veer west-southwest with the passage of the front. Post frontal mixing depths and a strong low level wind field will support wind gusts around 30 knots late this evening. Some semblance of low level moisture circulating around departing low pressure to the northeast will lead to some MVFR bases stratus overnight. For DTW...Convection will increase in coverage across the western portions of the metro airspace through 20Z. By 20Z or shortly after, widespread convection is expected to become centered over metro Detroit. While the risk of storms will end at metro by 00Z, the eastern portions of the airspace may see thunderstorms linger through 01Z. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Moderate in ceilings at or below 5000 feet this afternoon and tonight. * High in thunderstorms affecting the area this afternoon and evening. * Low in crosswind thresholds being exceeded tonight. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Lakeshore Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ063-070. Lake Huron...NONE. Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for LCZ460. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ444. && DISCUSSION...JVC MARINE.......JVC HYDROLOGY....JVC AVIATION.....SC You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 412 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-110900- Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer- St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe- 412 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight There is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms between 3-9 PM today, as numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop. The main hazard will be damaging wind gusts to around 70 MPH, but a few tornadoes and large hail in excess of 1 inch are also possible. The storms will also produce torrential rainfall, which will lead to minor urban and small stream type flooding. Storms will track northeast between 50-55 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Dispatchers please notify your emergency managers immediately... Spotter activation is likely this afternoon and early this evening. LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-110900- Lake St Clair- Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI- Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore- Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore- Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore- Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI- Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI- Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI- Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore- 412 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake Huron and Lake St Clair. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening producing damaging wind gusts of 50 knots or greater. Large hail and waterspouts are also not out of the question. Torrential rainfall will occur with these storms, significantly reducing visibility. Storm motion will be northeast at 45 knots. Gale Warnings and Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Refer to the latest marine forecasts for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Small craft advisories continued Thursday for Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Dispatchers please notify your emergency managers immediately... Spotter activation is likely this afternoon and early this evening. You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit. SF
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</html>The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 lakeshore flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The water level at Algonac reached 578.4 inches on June 11th at 0336 LST.
The water level at Algonac reached 578.4 inches on June 11th at 0336 LST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, June 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 901044, 901045.