Anomalous moisture was in place across the ArkLaMiss region as a stationary front was draped across the area. To the north of this front, severe storms brought hail while flash flooding occurred to the south.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
Anomalous moisture was in place across the ArkLaMiss region as a stationary front was draped across the area. To the north of this front, severe storms brought hail while flash flooding occurred to the south. Heavy rain occurred from February 10th-12th, with widespread two to seven inches occurring along and north of the I-20 corridor. Some locations saw locally higher amounts of nine to ten inches. Around I-20, two to four inches of rain fell, while near an inch fell across the Highway 84 corridor.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 10, 11:59 AM CST, 4 hours 1 minute earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1159 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020
.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
SHRA and TSRA will affect various TAF sites throughout the TAF
period, with periods of reduced visibility and broken MVFR or
lower ceilings accompanying heavy rainfall. After 00Z, increasing
chances for low stratus even away from any rain so have MVFR to
IFR ceilings at most sites. /NF/
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Moderate to heavy rain continues to fall across portions of the
area this morning. Where storms are training, flash flooding is
likely to become an issue. No adjustments needed to the current
forecast, but did adjust near-term temps/dew points/winds per
latest trends. /NF/
Prior discussion below:
Today and Tonight:
Significant and widespread flash flooding is expected across the
region today as already ongoing storms continue to tap into near
record levels of deep moisture through the period. The focus of
storms will be along and south stalling frontal boundary. Upper
level flow across the region will be parallel to the stalled
boundary, with strong low level flow from the south directed into
it. This will lead to training storms that will be efficient rain
producers, with rain rates easily equaling and surpassing 1-2" and
hour. An earlier start than expected has led to the increase in
overall expected QPF. Max forecasted rainfall totals will increase
to 8" with some localized heavier amounts. There is still some
ambiguity as to where the swath of heaviest rainfall will set up,
which led to the decision not to add an extreme risk in the HWO.
However, once it is clearer and if the swath looks to set up over
the areas in our region where antecedent conditions were wetter, it
may have to be added on a later update. The flash flood threat will
continue through the night on Monday.
Severe storms will also be a threat through this evening along and
south of the boundary. Elevated storms along and just behind the
boundary could be hail producers. However, the best chances of
severe storms will be in areas south of the boundary where
instability will be greatest in the afternoon and evening. Ample
deep layer shear, 0-3km SRH greater than 300 m2/s2, and SCPs ranging
from 7-10 indicate that there could be some tornadic supercells in
the region. Other than tornadoes, damaging winds and hail will be a
threat with these surface based storms. The chances for severe
storms will progress through the early evening, only waning when as
lose instability Monday night. /JM/
Tuesday through next weekend:
For Tuesday through Tuesday night, expect a break in the heavy
rain and severe weather threat with weak frontal convergence
supporting relatively light shower activity. Mean guidance QPF is
less than an inch for this 24 hr period, although locally heavier
amounts are suggested over portions of the ArkLaMiss Delta region
Tues night where low level theta-e advection will begin to
increase.
For Wednesday through Wednesday night, the severe/flooding
threats should ramp back up as a closed low over the southwestern
CONUS opens up and accelerates eastward across the Southern
Plains. While the strong southeast CONUS ridge will deflect most
height falls associated with this dampening wave, there should be
sufficient lift for an organized convective system to develop and
move eastward across the ArkLaMiss region. Given the longwave
pattern, there is certainly some potential for this system to move
more slowly than guidance consensus suggests, which could
increase the heavy rain/flood threat, but feel the current
elevated threat in the HWO graphics for this period is okay. Per
SPC day 3 outlook, have included an enhanced severe risk for
mainly Wed aftn/night, although the anticyclonic flow in the warm
sector suggests prefrontal convection may be tough to come by,
and this would help to mitigate the severe risk.
For Thursday through the weekend, a northern stream shortwave
trough will dig southward over the eastern CONUS and help to
drive a much drier and cooler airmass into the forecast area as
we finish up the work week and go into the weekend. There is
potential for the southeast ridge to quickly rebuild allowing
significant rain chances to return by Saturday night/Sunday, but
global models disagree on the evolution of this pattern with some
guidance suggesting the aforementioned northern stream trough will
be stronger and thus require a longer time for redevelopment of
the heavy rainfall pattern. The weekend into early next week will
certainly be a critical period to monitor for additional heavy
rain/severe weather threats. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 74 59 65 55 / 89 85 76 68
Meridian 73 64 70 55 / 79 85 82 63
Vicksburg 73 53 59 52 / 89 93 71 76
Hattiesburg 76 66 76 61 / 59 50 64 58
Natchez 74 59 65 55 / 87 63 72 69
Greenville 66 44 48 46 / 97 95 73 90
Greenwood 67 47 54 49 / 98 98 70 86
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for MSZ018-019-
025>054-059>061.
LA...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for ARZ074-075.
&&
JPM3/NF/ECHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson MS 631 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020 ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-026-030-031-039-111230- Ashley-Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Grenada-Clay-Lowndes-Noxubee- 631 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Arkansas, east central Mississippi, and north central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Marginal TIMING...Today through Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Significant TIMING...Today through Tonight A significant flood threat is evolving for today and tonight. Many roads could be flooded or closed and some structural flooding and water rescues are likely. Moderate to major river flooding will also be likely. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) There is also a marginal risk for a few severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and perhaps a tornado, but the greater severe weather threat should be farther south. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday The next round of heavy rainfall and severe weather is expected in the Wednesday to Wednesday night time frame as another weather disturbance moves across the region. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through tonight and Wednesday through Wednesday night. LAZ007>009-015-MSZ025-027>029-032>038-040>042-111230- Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Leflore-Carroll- Montgomery-Webster-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes- Attala-Winston-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo- 631 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Slight TIMING...Today through Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Significant TIMING...Today through Tonight A significant flood threat is evolving for today and tonight. Many roads could be flooded or closed and some structural flooding and water rescues are likely. Moderate to major river flooding will also be likely. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) There is also a slight risk for a few severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and perhaps a tornado, especially during the afternoon. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday The next round of heavy rainfall and severe weather is expected in the Wednesday to Wednesday night time frame as another weather disturbance moves across the region. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through tonight and Wednesday through Wednesday night. LAZ016-023-025-MSZ043>045-047>050-053-111230- Madison LA-Franklin LA-Tensas-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Warren- Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Claiborne- 631 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Slight TIMING...Today through Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Elevated TIMING...Today through Tonight Areas of flash flooding are likely and some roads could be flooded or closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened by high water. Moderate river flooding is also possible. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) There is also a slight risk for a few severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and perhaps a tornado, especially during the afternoon. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday The next round of heavy rainfall and severe weather is expected in the Wednesday to Wednesday night time frame as another weather disturbance moves across the region. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through tonight and Wednesday through Wednesday night. MSZ046-051-052-054-056-111230- Kemper-Newton-Lauderdale-Copiah-Smith- 631 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Mississippi, and east central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Marginal TIMING...Today through Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Elevated TIMING...Today through Tonight Areas of flash flooding are likely and some roads could be flooded or closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened by high water. Moderate river flooding is also possible. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) There is also a marginal risk for a few severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and perhaps a tornado, especially during the afternoon. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday The next round of heavy rainfall and severe weather is expected in the Wednesday to Wednesday night time frame as another weather disturbance moves across the region. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through tonight and Wednesday through Wednesday night. LAZ024-MSZ059-111230- Catahoula-Jefferson- 631 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast Louisiana, and southwest Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Slight TIMING...Today through Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Limited TIMING...Today through Tonight Localized flash flooding and minor river flooding are possible. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) There is also a slight risk for a few severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and perhaps a tornado, especially during the afternoon. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday The next round of heavy rainfall and severe weather is expected in the Wednesday to Wednesday night time frame as another weather disturbance moves across the region. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through tonight and Wednesday through Wednesday night. LAZ026-MSZ055-057-058-060>065-111230- Concordia-Simpson-Jasper-Clarke-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln- Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington- 631 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and south central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Marginal TIMING...Today through Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Limited TIMING...Today through Tonight Localized flash flooding and minor river flooding are possible. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) There is also a marginal risk for a few severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and perhaps a tornado, especially during the afternoon. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday The next round of heavy rainfall and severe weather is expected in the Wednesday to Wednesday night time frame as another weather disturbance moves across the region. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through tonight and Wednesday through Wednesday night. MSZ066-072-073-111230- Jones-Marion-Lamar- 631 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Limited TIMING...Today through Tonight There is a limited threat for localized flash flooding and minor river flooding. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday The next round of heavy rainfall and severe weather is expected in the Wednesday to Wednesday night time frame as another weather disturbance moves across the region. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday through Wednesday night. MSZ074-111230- Forrest- 631 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday The next round of heavy rainfall and severe weather is expected in the Wednesday to Wednesday night time frame as another weather disturbance moves across the region. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday through Wednesday night. 21 && ...HAZARD LEGEND... *SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS* High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected. Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant severe weather possible. Enhanced...Severe storms expected. Slight...Severe storms possible. Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible. *FLOODING* Extreme...Confident in significant flooding. Significant...Significant flooding possible. Elevated...Confident in flooding. Limited...Flooding possible. ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN Home page... https://www.weather.gov/jan Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe Latest Weather Briefing... https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing Find NWS JAN on Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Twitter... @NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Youtube... https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES... Storm Prediction Center (SPC)... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Meso Analysis... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/ Day 1 through 3 Outlooks... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/ Storm Reports... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/ ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES... Current Watches and Warnings... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain Observed Precipitation Images... https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps River Forecast Center... https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/ Significant River Flood Outlook... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml Excessive Rainfall Discussion... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html Day 1 through 7 QPF... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml QPF Discussion... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html
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</html>The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 129 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:02 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Part of Highway 3181 was flooded. Some homes in the area were also threatened by flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Louisiana in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Louisiana, February 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 877065.