Beginning Monday, February 10, light rain moved back into eastern Kentucky. This caused additional issues, while another round on Wednesday, February 12 into Thursday, February 13 brought continued river flooding along points on the Kentucky and Cumberland Rivers.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Beginning Monday, February 10, light rain moved back into eastern Kentucky. This caused additional issues, while another round on Wednesday, February 12 into Thursday, February 13 brought continued river flooding along points on the Kentucky and Cumberland Rivers. Gusty winds up to 40 to 45 mph resulted in an isolated downed tree in the Blackey community of Letcher County due to the saturated nature of the ground, as well as a children's wooden playground being flipped and tossed 40-50 feet from its origin near Kernie in Magoffin County. In addition to high water on area roads, mudslides also continued to impact multiple highways. One of these near Williamson in northeast Pike County on Kentucky Highway 292 resulted in a multi day road closure.
The town of Confluence in Leslie County once again experienced flooding issues as water levels rose at Buckhorn Lake. This impacted spots along Kentucky Highway 257, including homes.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 10, 1:50 PM EST, 55 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 150 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 150 PM EST MON FEB 10 2020 Busy forecast, but in general things have been on track. Only occasional and minor nudges to the grids as a surface cold frontal boundary slowly slides southeast from the Ohio River into eastern Kentucky. Thus we will continue to see on and off light to moderate rainfall across the area. Updates to the grids have not been significant enough to warrant any corresponding update to the zones. UPDATE Issued at 650 AM EST MON FEB 10 2020 Rain showers continue to overspread the area early this morning adding to our saturated soils. Did update the grids mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids. These updates have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 500 AM EST MON FEB 10 2020 09z sfc analysis shows a well defined cold front slowly pressing into and through the Ohio Valley. This is responsible for the renewed shower activity over Kentucky this morning. Temperatures have finally risen in the valleys out of the 30s and lower 40s so that most places are now in the seasonally mild mid to upper 40s. Dewpoints, meanwhile, under overcast skies, are running in the low 40s most places that have picked up some of the rain while in the drier spots of the east mid 30s are found. Winds have also responded to the approaching boundary picking up from the southwest at 10 to 15 mph most places with gusts as high as 25 and 30 mph noted (up to 52 mph reported on the Black Mountain mesonet site) as the stronger winds of a low level jet are occasionally mixing to the surface. The models are in excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict deep layer southwest flow running through Kentucky and locked in place by a strong ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico while a deep closed low trough is digging as far south at northern Mexico today and tonight. A bit later, a trough passing by to the north, through the Great Lakes, on Tuesday will further tighten up the mid level flow over the Ohio Valley while packets of energy surf through the region. The limited spread with the models through 00z Wednesday favors the blended solution as reflected by the NBM - though did incorporate a strong lean toward the CAMs and higher resolution NAM12 for forecast details. Sensible weather will feature a couple of rounds of heavier showers today and tonight as a cold front settles through the area before returning as a warm front on Tuesday. This will keep the JKL CWA under the gun for excessive rains - especially considering the saturated soils in place. The heaviest QPF looks to fall in the headwaters of the Cumberland River and places that saw destructive flooding just a few days ago. Accordingly, a Flood Watch has been hoisted in our far southeast from noon today through Tuesday morning. The excessive rain threat is resulting from the confluence of anomalous moisture moving into the area by that deep layer southwest flow, a solid pocket of upper level divergence passing overhead tonight thanks to the persistent presence of a strong upper level jet over the northern Ohio Valley, and strong sfc convergence with the boundary pushing southward through the JKL CWA initially then returning north by Tuesday morning. Overcast skies and soaking rains will keep the diurnal curve quite limited through the period, though we will definitely be on the mild side of early February climatology. Did not have to adjust the temps or dewpoints from the NBM too much for the period. However, did fill in some lower PoP pockets from the model through the prime rain times today and tonight - more toward the CONSShort solution while also going along with the WPC QPF - not coincidentally placing much of the CWA in the slight risk category of an excessive rain outlook through 12z Tuesday. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 311 AM EST MON FEB 10 2020 Another shortwave trough will push east for mid week, bringing another round of widespread rain to Kentucky. A warm front with some isentropic ascent will push north Tuesday night with precipitation developing late and into Wednesday morning. Rainfall rates should be rather limited through most of Wednesday. The axis for heavier precipitation looks to have shifted a bit farther west on the 00z suite of models. This puts the heavier rain more across central Kentucky, as the warm front pivots northward and the cold front moves into Kentucky. By the time the precipitation shifts eastward with the cold front, it looks to be fairly progressive. While PW's will be quite high, it looks like showers should move on through fairly quickly, perhaps limiting rainfall with the front to less than an inch across much of eastern Kentucky. Overall, rainfall amounts did trend less with this forecast package for the mid week system, but there remains plenty of uncertainty with where the axis of heavier rain sets up. We may see some wrap around showers into Thursday with upslope flow and cold advection in full gear. Precipitation should slowly wind down by the evening hours. The GFS has come in line with the surge of colder air for Thursday night into Friday that the ECMWF has been advertising for a few days. Thus, went colder than the blended solution given better model agreement. This will lead to sub-freezing highs for Friday. Temperatures will rebound through the weekend as a surface high shifts east and we start to get some return flow. Quite a bit of uncertainty regarding Sunday and into the following week, as a few models support rain chances quickly returning for Sunday, while a few others such as the ECMWF and CMC are coming in much drier from previous runs. The blended model solution brought in likely pops for Sunday, but couldn't conceive going any higher than chance at this time, given the tremendous uncertainty. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 150 PM EST MON FEB 10 2020 Flight conditions will continue to worsen across the area through the forecast period as a frontal boundary slides slowly southeast into and across the area. Expect most terminals will eventually reach their respective airfield minimums. The front is located just to our northwest generally along the Ohio River and will take a little more than 24 hours to complete its track through eastern Kentucky. Thus once we fully drop into low end IFR/LIFR territory tonight, not looking at much improvement until close to the end, or just after the end of the forecast period. Winds generally will be light, around 5 kts, but with a favored southerly or southwesterly direction until FROPA. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for KYZ084>088. && UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...RAY
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 400 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2020 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-104-106>120-111200- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe- Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie- Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 400 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Rivers will continue to run high across the area and with more rain today and tonight their rate of falling will slow or stop completely. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Look for the Cumberland and Kentucky rivers to continue to run high through the week. Another round of moderate to heavy rain is expected from Tuesday night through Thursday. This rain will fall on already saturated grounds likely leading to rapid and renewed rises on area creeks, streams, and rivers as well as flood concerns. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report instances of heavy rain and flooding through the week. KYZ084>088-111200- McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Including the cities of Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, and Harlan 400 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2020 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Times of moderate to heavy rain today and tonight could result in renewed flooding in the Cumberland River Basin. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Look for the Cumberland and Kentucky rivers to continue to run high through the week. Another round of moderate to heavy rain is expected from Tuesday night through Thursday. This rain will fall on already saturated grounds likely leading to rapid and renewed rises on area creeks, streams, and rivers as well as flood concerns. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report instances of heavy rain and flooding through the week. GREIF/KAS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 heavy rain, 3 flood, 2 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A citizen reported a mudslide, due to previous heavy rain, occurred on Kentucky Highway 2024 near the intersection with Kentucky Highway 30 just outside of Lerose.
The Kentucky Transportation Cabinet relayed a report of a rockslide, due to previous heavy rain, on Kentucky Highway 292 between U.S. Highway 119 and ARH Hospital near Williamson.
Local Emergency Management and media reported typical persistent high water in the town of Confluence due to high water levels as a result of water being held back by Buckhorn Lake. Impacts were seen to nearby homes as well as along Kentucky Highway 257.
The Kentucky Transportation Cabinet reported a mudslide, due to previous heavy rainfall, on Kentucky Highway 700.
Local media reported a train derailment as a result of an active mudslide, caused by previous heavy rainfall, near Draffin.
A citizen reported that Belcher Fork Road near Yeadon was blocked due to a mudslide caused by previous heavy rain.
A trained spotter observed a children's wooden playground was flipped and tossed 40-50 feet from its origin near Kernie.
Local media passed along a report of a tree blown down onto a home in the Blackey community. This was a direct result of saturated soil conditions.
A citizen reported that water from the Licking River poured onto a road south of Florress, resulting in vehicles being stranded.
Local Emergency Management reported a car was caught in water spilling onto Kentucky Highway 1098 from Quicksand Creek east of Jackson.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, February 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 870571, 868242, 868519, 868527, 868530, 870570, 868522, 868520, 868526, 868521.