Flooding in Kentucky, February 10 to 28, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
501 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 455 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

Main forecast challenge with the short term deals with the
upcoming heavy rain potential Wed/Wed night.

Tonight, it looks as though a weak mid level impulse will eject
ene from the srn Plains. This will bring a good chance for
another shot of light rain, esp to portions of western KY. Though
the precip will be falling in colder air behind the cold front
that moved through today, thermal profiles suggest the air column
in most locations (that see any significant precip) will stay
warm enough for plain rain to occur as opposed to any winter
precip.

Tuesday should offer a brief break in the precipitation, but will
offer little in the way of sunshine. The expected clouds and
northerly winds will serve to hold temperatures within 5 to 10
degrees from the morning lows in the 30s.

The main event in the short term comes in for Wednesday and
Wednesday night as a deep (but dampening) mid/upper level trof
ejects east, and then northeast, into the southern Plains and mid
MS River Valley regions. In response to this, a surface low will
develop along the nw Gulf Coast and then lift northeast toward our
southeastern counties of western KY by Wed evening.

With all of the dynamics and Gulf moisture associated with the
system, widespread rainfall is expected over the entire forecast
area. PWATs are still anticipated to be running extremely high for
this time of year, especially along and to the right of the
surface low track. This should bring the heaviest rainfall to
portions of western KY, with 1.5 to 2 inches possible, especially
in the Pennyrile region. With still some uncertainty as to exact
rainfall totals and how far west the heaviest rain may end up,
have opted to forego a 4th/5th period flood watch for this
package, and continue with ESF, possibly even an SPS. I really
believe, however, that the potential is fairly high that headlines
will eventually be needed, especially over se portions of the
forecast area. Most, if not all, of any rain that occurs is going
to go directly to run-off due to the saturated antecedent
conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

At the beginning of the extended forecast period, the numerical
model suite is showing the trend of a positively tilted upper
Midwest trough phasing in the remnants of the California low that
has been serving as the trigger mechanism for the heavy rain
potential Wednesday.

A rapid development and movement of a moderate to short amplitude
ridge should keep things dry through the day on Saturday. The
numerical models are fairly optimistic in reducing opaque cloud
cover to a minimum (a.k.a., clear to mostly clear skies), but given
the cold air advection followed by minimal mixing in the boundary
layer, am somewhat skeptical of the sky cover will that clear on
Friday and Saturday.

With respect to the next precipitation event on Sunday and Monday,
only have average forecast confidence on coverage and timing of
these events. There is some inconsistencies between the GFS and
ECMWF ensemble and 00z/12z Monday deterministic guidance on the
degree and intensity of precipitation, as well as amounts. Given the
recent variability in the model guidance for precipitation chances
and amounts the last couple of days, will wait to see if there is
continuity in the model guidance through Wednesday, before
considering any rain and/or flooding potential early next week over
western Kentucky again.

Part of the reason for the average forecast confidence for
precipitation next week is the interplay of the northern U.S.
progressive trough and the spurious wave (either closed or open
wave) development in the southwest and California. Each model seems
to have its own solution, creating a spread of possible solutions in
the ensemble and lowering the mean rain chances and introducing
timing issues. Satellite and other remote sensing platforms will be
critical to determining the evolution of the Sunday/Monday system
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 455 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

Gridded time/height cross sections show high mrh in the blayer and
below tonight, but dry air does invade the column late
tonight-early tmrw. Therefore, the inherited trend of IFR to low
MVFR cigs tonight, transitioning to VFR cigs late tonight into
tmrw, was maintained.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
318 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-112130-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
318 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

However, Points along the Green, Ohio, and Mississippi Rivers are
rising and are currently flooding or projected to flood later
this week. See the River Flood Warnings and Statements for more
information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Locally heavy rain remains possible for mainly western Kentucky,
and the far southeastern portions of southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois Wednesday and Wednesday night. Reference the
latest Hydrologic Outlook for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated. However, spotters should
report any heavy rainfall or flooding to the National Weather
Service.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
312 PM CST MON FEB 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       DIEHLSTADT              36.96N 89.43W
02/10/2020  M1.00 INCH       SCOTT              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION.

0110 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MURRAY                  36.61N 88.32W
02/10/2020  M1.79 INCH       CALLOWAY           KY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service PADUCAH KY
328 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-111100-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
Including the cities of Mount Vernon, Fairfield, Albion,
Mount Carmel, Pinckneyville, West Frankfort, McLeansboro, Carmi,
Carbondale, Murphysboro, Herrin, Harrisburg, Shawneetown,
Jonesboro, Vienna, Golconda, Elizabethtown, Cairo, Mound City,
Metropolis, Fort Branch, Petersburg, Poseyville, Evansville,
Boonville, Rockport, Hickman, Clinton, Bardwell, Wickliffe,
Paducah, Mayfield, Smithland, Benton, Murray, Marion, Eddyville,
Cadiz, Princeton, Morganfield, Dixon, Madisonville, Hopkinsville,
Henderson, Owensboro, Calhoun, Greenville, Elkton, Perryville,
Marble Hill, Cape Girardeau, Jackson, Piedmont, Van Buren,
Doniphan, Poplar Bluff, Bloomfield, Sikeston, Charleston,
and New Madrid
328 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

...Locally heavy rain expected along and south of the Ohio River
Wednesday and Wednesday evening...

A mid week weather system is forecast to produce widespread rain
across the region. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur
across west Kentucky, extreme southern Illinois, and extreme
southeast Missouri Wednesday into Wednesday evening. These areas
will likely see 1.5 to 2 inches of rainfall, with the highest
totals along and southeast of a line from Mayfield Kentucky to
Greenville.

Given the saturated ground conditions due to rainfall earlier in
the week, this may have the potential for producing some flooding
of low lying or poorly drained locations.

There continues to be some uncertainty in the rainfall totals, so
please continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

MEFFERT