An unseasonably strong storm system impacted the region January 10-11. Heavy rainfall, flooding, scattered damaging winds, tornadoes, and gusty non-thunderstorm winds impacted western Kentucky during this time.
Every event with a place to put it; 22 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
An unseasonably strong storm system impacted the region January 10-11. Heavy rainfall, flooding, scattered damaging winds, tornadoes, and gusty non-thunderstorm winds impacted western Kentucky during this time. The bulk of the event occurred overnight and into the morning hours on the 11th. Rainfall totals ranged from 2 to 5 inches, which resulted in pockets of flash flooding across the region, as well as minor flooding of the Green River. Strong to severe convection over the Ozark Mountains moved east into an environment of very strong wind shear over southeast Missouri, with 850 mb winds near 60 knots. The convection maintained intensity after it crossed the Mississippi River during the early morning hours. Tremendous wind shear (winds of 50 knots down to 1500 feet above ground) and strong forcing associated with a potent 500 mb shortwave compensated for weak instability. Some of the strong winds aloft reached the surface in the form of gradient wind gusts from 40 to around 50 mph. A weak surface low formed along a cold front over southwest Arkansas, then deepened as it tracked northeast across the Missouri Bootheel and into the lower Ohio Valley on the morning of the 11th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 10, 7:05 PM CST, 2 hours 55 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
705 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 705 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
Updated aviation discussion.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
Potent storm system will bring a variety of hazards tonight and
Saturday. Flash flooding concerns have increased due to the swath
of heavy rainfall that occurred overnight and this morning
northwest of the Ohio River. Already around 2 inches have fallen
from around kcgi up into southwest Indiana. Fortunately, rainfall
rates have been rather low. This rainfall has been associated with
a zone of persistent warm moist advection and moderate elevated
instability.
The high rainfall rates expected later tonight will pose a serious
problem where heavy rainfall caused flooding today. There is good
model agreement that an organized round of convection will move
east from the Ozarks tonight. The timing shown in the hrrr model
is representative of many other models, which take the convective
system across se Missouri from 06z to 10z, then across southern
IL and far western KY around 12z to 15z. High rainfall rates will
accompany this convection, possibly up to an inch in an hour. An
additional 2 to 3 inches of rain is forecast from this afternoon
through Saturday in the watch area, which covers all but the khop
area.
The severe weather potential has increased somewhat, as well.
Instability is generally higher than the models have indicated.
Elevated most unstable capes (mucapes) have been in the 500 to
1000 j/kg range over se Missouri, per spc mesoanalysis. Weak
surface-based instability is forecast to develop over se Missouri
this evening. The strong to severe convection over the Ozarks is
forecast to move into an environment of very strong wind shear
late tonight over se Missouri, with 850 mb winds near 60 kt. There
is some potential for the convection to maintain intensity after
it crosses the Mississippi River around 12z, despite a model
signal for the instability to weaken. The tremendous shear (50
knots down to 1500 feet agl) and strong forcing associated with
the potent 500 mb shortwave may compensate for the weaker
instability. The potential exists for an isolated tornado or two,
in addition to pockets of wind damage. The northern edge of the
surface based instability corresponds rather closely with the edge
of the spc slight risk area for both days 1 and 2. The strongest
convection should exit western Kentucky by around 18z Sat.
The third hazard is strong non-convective winds. As mentioned,
more than one model is indicating winds around 50 knots less than
2k feet above ground, mainly early to mid morning Saturday. The
timing and strength of surface wind gusts will depend on low level
lapse rates, which will depend on the timing of convection and
how much diurnal heating occurs. The models are not in agreement
on details that fine scale. The high-res hrrr complicates the
issue by developing an intense wake meso-low behind the
convective system. This scenario cannot be ruled out either. The
Wind Advisory will remain in effect tonight into Saturday evening,
though the most impactful winds will occur within a shorter time
frame. There is a slight chance of meeting High Wind Warning
criteria (58 mph gusts) if the wake meso-low develops behind the
storms.
The low pressure system will exit our region Saturday night, with
a few leftover showers in the evening. Winds will diminish and
skies will begin to clear. A brief period of colder northwest
winds will bring temperatures down into the mid 20s to mid 30s
Saturday night. Highs will be in the 40s Sunday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
The overall pattern during work week over the WFO PAH forecast area
will be a broad low amplitude southwest flow Monday through
Wednesday, with ridging aloft Thursday, with a sharp trough over the
area next Friday.
About a ten degree rise can be expected each day on Monday and
Tuesday, as the WFO PAH remains in the warm sector, with a warm
front north of the area during this period. At this time, have low
forecast confidence on the warm advection precipitation generated
for the area Monday night and Tuesday. Regardless little or no
measurable QPF (rain amounts) are forecast for this time period, so
figure most of the precipitation will be Trace amounts. For
collaborative purposes, kept a small chance mention of showers with
a lesser chance of thunderstorm activity over west Kentucky on
Tuesday.
A shortwave is expected to move from the Central Plains and through
the Middle Mississippi Valley Tuesday night and Wednesday. The
European and Canadian numerical guidance are similar with this
feature, so felt comfortable with keeping a chance of precipitation
in place through Wednesday evening.
There is some model disagreement with the NBM (National Blend of
Models) during the daytime hours on Thursday as the mid-upper level
ridge moves across the area. Opted to keep the daytime period dry
with this package.
For Thursday night through the end of the forecast period, kept a
chance of rain in place as the next shortwave moves from the four
corners area of the desert southwest to Michigan by Friday night.
Don't have high confidence on the low temperature forecast for
Wednesday through Friday night, but had to consider a mention of a
wintry mix (rain and snow) after midnight Wednesday night through
early Thursday morning, then again Thursday night into Friday. Given
the antecedent warm conditions and marginal freezing temperatures,
any snowfall accumulation will be very minor to non-existent at
best.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 705 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
There will be a general lull in the rainfall coverage this evening
as a cluster of showers continues to move northward through southern
IL/southwestern IN. Aside from a few breaks in the clouds here and
there, MVFR cigs can be expected in the western half of the region
this evening, with the eastern half decreasing from VFR to MVFR
shortly after midnight. A line of showers and possibly strong to
severe tstms, just ahead of a cold front, is forecast to move
eastward through the region after midnight, starting in southeastern
MO and progressing across eastern parts of the region by midday Sat.
IFR cigs/vsbys should be associated these showers and tstms.
Meanwhile, robust southerly winds, gusting to as much as 35 to 40
knots ahead of the front, will turn to the west or southwest late,
after a period of becoming light and variable.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Saturday
afternoon for ILZ075>078-080>094.
Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Saturday for
ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Saturday
afternoon for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Saturday for
MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Saturday
afternoon for INZ081-082-085>088.
Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Saturday for
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Saturday
afternoon for KYZ001>016-018>020.
Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Saturday for
KYZ001>022.
&&
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...DWS
AVIATION...DBHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 308 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-112115- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 308 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 ...Potent Storm System Bringing Multiple Hazards... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Widespread heavy rainfall is expected, mainly late tonight. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for most of our region. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms tonight near and west of the Mississippi River. The risk is mostly after midnight, when an intense line of thunderstorms may cross southeast Missouri. Damaging winds will be the main hazard, however a couple of isolated tornadoes are possible. Strong and gusty winds will increase this evening and persist overnight. A Wind Advisory is in effect for gusts up to 40 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Saturday afternoon. Periods of heavy rainfall will continue, mainly during the morning. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms on Saturday across much of western Kentucky. Thunderstorms may cross the Mississippi River very early in the morning, then proceed across west Kentucky through midday. The primary hazards will be isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado or two. Strong winds may gust from 40 to 50 mph at times Saturday into Saturday evening. South winds will shift into the southwest in the afternoon. The Wind Advisory remains in effect through Saturday evening. Most rivers in our region are expected to rise above flood stage in response to the predicted heavy rain. The river flooding is forecast to be minor to moderate, except possibly major flooding on the Skillet Fork River in southern Illinois. Thunderstorms are forecast for part of the outlook area on Tuesday and Wednesday. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out on Wednesday. A wintry mix is forecast late Wednesday night, then again Thursday night into Friday morning. At this time, forecast snowfall accumulations are expected to be quite light and not pose a travel concern. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be requested tonight or Saturday. York/KES
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
501 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
ANAN AM HEAVY RAIN WALTONVILLE 38.21N 89.04W
AN/AN/NAN M1.24 INCH JEFFERSON IL CO-OP OBSERVER
&&
K. SMITHPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
724 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0640 PM FLOOD 7 N MARBLE HILL 37.40N 89.98W
01/10/2020 BOLLINGER MO EMERGENCY MNGR
NUMEROUS LOW WATER CROSSING ARE NOW FLOODING ACROSS THE
COUNTY FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL TODAY, INCLUDING COUNTY
ROADS 356, 366, 364, 234, 236, 400, 408 AND 414. ALSO, MO
HWY V HAS WATER OVER IT.
&&
GREGMPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
842 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0630 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 SE EVANSVILLE 37.95N 87.50W
01/10/2020 M1.00 INCH VANDERBURGH IN TRAINED SPOTTER
1.4 INCHES OF RAIN TOTAL SO FAR.
&&
DBPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
858 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0853 PM HEAVY RAIN 8 W DEXTER 36.79N 90.10W
01/10/2020 M1.00 INCH STODDARD MO TRAINED SPOTTER
1.44 INCH OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT.
&&
DBThe Paducah radar (KPAH), 20 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:19 UTC.
22 strong wind, 11 tornado, 7 thunderstorm wind, 5 flood, 4 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The tornado touched down at the intersection of Little Bethel Church Road and Woodson Road, traveled along and just north of Woodson Road, went across State Route 129 and ended just east of Stubblefield Road. The tornado traveled east-northeast at 60 mph for two consecutive miles. Much of the damage path width was 100 yards or less, but peaked at 235 yards wide just east of Route 129. The tornado hit a farm/out building and did damage to several trees along Woodson Road. It intensified at Route 129, and then hit a chicken farm with substantial damage to 3 of the 6 buildings. A 4th building was moderately damaged. Two buildings at each end had minor damage. Metal roofing was launched well up into trees at least 50 to 60 feet tall east of the farm buildings. Damage was estimated to be around 2 million dollars. Minor damage to a house and some trees was found at Stubblefield Road before the tornado ended. Peak winds in this tornado were estimated near 110 mph.
The tornado touched down near the U.S. 641 exit of Interstate 69 and moved north northeast. This tornado passed just beyond the northwestern outskirts of Benton, sparing the city from significant damage. Numerous trees were snapped or uprooted along the path. One barn had the roof blown off. There was other straight line wind damage in the immediate area. Peak winds in the tornado were estimated near 90 mph.
Numerous trees were down throughout the county, including the Gilbertsville area.
A carport was blown into a yard. A few shingles were blown off.
The tornado occurred in heavily wooded terrain on federally protected land. The tornado touched down in the Redd Hollow area (west of the Trace Highway) in the Land Between The Lakes National Recreation Area. Damage continued east to just south of the Wranglers Campground. The tornado could have crossed into Lake Barkley and Donaldson Creek, but no evidence was found further east. The heaviest area of damage was south of Wranglers Campground, where many dozens of trees were snapped and uprooted. Just south of the track, a microburst occurred where many trees were snapped and uprooted. Peak winds in this tornado were estimated near 105 mph.
Several trees were blown down along Highways 280, 444, and 893 in the New Concord area.
The tornado touched down just east of Blue Spring and tracked eastward just north of Blue Spring Road. It continued east northeast to just southwest of Cadiz. Several trees up to 3.5 feet in diameter were snapped and/or uprooted. There were several homes with minor roof damage and one that had moderate roof damage. One metal building had its garage door blown in. A large branch fell on a vehicle at one residence. A carport was shifted off its supports. Peak winds in this tornado were estimated near 85 mph.
The tornado touched down on Highway 514 near Highway 139. Partial roof damage was reported to three homes. At least a half dozen barns or outbuildings were damaged or destroyed, mostly in the Caldwell County portion of the track. Four wooden high tension power poles were taken down. At least dozens of trees were snapped or uprooted. Peak winds were estimated near 100 mph. The tornado continued east into Christian County.
Hundreds of trees were snapped or uprooted. Where the tornado crossed State Route 91, one barn was destroyed and another was damaged. Elsewhere along the track, part of a barn roof was tossed across a road, and a house lost some siding. The tornado crossed into Christian County, where it intensified to EF-1.
The tornado entered Christian County from Caldwell County just south of Highway 91. At least a half dozen barns or outbuildings were damaged or destroyed, mostly in the Caldwell County portion of the track. At least dozens of trees were snapped or uprooted. The tornado path ended at the southern boundary of the Pennyrile Forest State Resort Park. Peak winds were estimated near 100 mph.
The tornado crossed over from Caldwell County. Most of the Christian County portion of the path was in the Pennyrile Forest State Resort Park, where hundreds of trees were snapped or uprooted. Peak winds were estimated near 95 mph.
A swath of damaging thunderstorm winds occurred across extreme northern Christian County. Most of the damage was in the form of snapped and uprooted trees. The area of damaging winds was mostly in the Pennyrile Forest State Resort Park, in close proximity to two separate tornadoes. The damage extended eastward across Highway 109 for a few more miles. Peak winds were estimated near 80 mph.
The tornado touched down in the Pennyrile Forest State Resort Park. Over half of its path was in the park. After leaving the park, the tornado crossed Highway 109. A few barns were damaged or blown down. A couple houses sustained loss of shingles. At least dozens of trees were uprooted or snapped. Peak winds were estimated near 95 mph.
The tornado touched down on the northern perimeter of the Fort Campbell military base and proceeded northeast across U.S. Highway 41. Trees were uprooted and snapped along the path. Several barns were damaged or destroyed, including one that had its roof thrown several hundred yards into trees. Power lines were downed, and 13 empty rail cars were tipped over along the path. A couple of homes received some minor damage. The tornado lifted just northwest of Pembroke. Peak winds were estimated near 100 mph.
A destructive downburst containing peak winds of 100 mph occurred on the north side of Hopkinsville, including parts of the downtown area. Approximately 125 homes had some damage. Most had roof, soffit, or siding damage. The roof of a high school was damaged. At least one home had a tree fall on it and severely damaged it. Hundreds of trees were uprooted or snapped. Significant damage occurred at Ruff Park, where ballfields sustained damage and at least one power pole was snapped. Adjacent to the downtown area, much of the roof was blown off an old elementary school on Second Street, and the Salvation Army office building was damaged. Near the end of the damage area, numerous trees were down along Highway 107 northeast of the city. The path of the most concentrated damage was about 1.6 miles long and 0.9 miles wide.
The automated weather observing station at Fort Campbell measured a wind gust to 64 mph.
This tornado crossed U.S. Highway 41 about four miles southeast of Hopkinsville. Several trees were snapped along the path. One barn received some partial damage to its roof. Peak winds were estimated near 95 mph.
Trees were down throughout the county, including along Highway 181 south of Greenville.
Numerous roads were flooded across the county.
Water was over Axel Creek Road.
Numerous roads throughout the county had water over them, including Highways 132 and 138.
Highway 358 was flooded between Kevil and La Center.
Roads that are typically flooded after heavy rainfall were closed. This includes portions of U.S. Highway 62 in the creek bottoms east of Bardwell.
Roads that are typically flooded after heavy rainfall were closed. This includes portions of Highway 1820 near the Carlisle County line.
Roads that are typically flooded after heavy rainfall were closed.
Roads that are typically flooded after heavy rainfall were closed. This includes portions of Highway 94 in Fulton County.
Minor flooding occurred on the Green River. Low-lying woods and fields were underwater.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Kentucky, 2020Warnings in Kentucky, January 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 869079, 869080, 869081, 869082, 869083, 869084, 869085, 869086, 869087, 869088, 869089, 869090, 869091, 869093, 869094, 869095, 869096, 869097, 869098, 869099, 869100, 869101, 866145, 866146, 866645, 866646, 866147, 866644, 866149, 866222, 866159, 866223, 866161, 866225, 866156, 866150, 866152, 866638, 866151, 866641, and more.