5-1 below normal. 50-1.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GLD wrote it up.
Observed precipitation for the month ranged from 0-0.25, which was 0.5-1 below normal. Normal precipitation amounts are 0.50-1. The continued below normal precipitation caused D2 Severe Drought level to occur for Sheridan County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 23, 10:51 PM CST, 1 hour 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 951 PM MST Mon Nov 23 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 755 PM MST Mon Nov 23 2020 Updated precipitation chances slightly for Tuesday morning and afternoon. Precipitation chances are expected to increase in the northwestern part of the area Tuesday morning, with a second area of chances increasing in the southeastern part of hte forecast area in the afternoon. As temperatures rise, there may be a brief period of light freezing rain in eastern Colorado. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1254 PM MST Mon Nov 23 2020 19Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated strong short wave trough approaching the four corners area. This system will be the primary driver of tonight through Tuesday's potential precipitation. At the surface, strong sfc trough deepened across eastern Colorado as much of the area was covered by thick clouds. Strong southerly flow was noted across the southeastern portion of the area where winds were gusting in excess of 40 mph in some locations. Main forecast concern will be precipitation and potential for winter weather impacts through the evening Tuesday. Lots of uncertainty with respect to how this system will evolve and the first major change to going forecast is to slow precipitation onset down by 3-6 hours. Despite some elevated instability, bulk of short term models support a very dry layer of air persisting through much of the overnight period, especially to the north of cold front. While it is possible that this level could saturate earlier and lead to precipitation, think overall pattern supports a slower evolution/development for precipitation given the overall moisture profile. While there is pretty good agreement with overall system evolution and timing, the presence of elevated instability increases uncertainty with respect to amounts and may create a situation with spotty higher amounts surrounded by relatively little precip. Current thought with respect to precipitation evolution have me leaning towards seeing two distinct areas of precipitation initially. The first will be across northeast Colorado along strong frontogenetic circulation. Synoptic scale support stronger south and west so think best response will be just to the west of the forecast area. A second area will develop near the surface front as saturated low level airmass may support some weak instability, with a thunderstorm not out of the question during the morning and early afternoon hours. As H5 trough nears the area, expect northern area to shift south and gradually consolidate with precipitation area across southern CWA. Right now, think this area will diminish as it moves south so there may be an area that receives relatively little precipitation through the day. With up to 500 j/kg of mucape available, could see areas with more significant rain and even convective driven snow, but these should be very isolated with threat for heavier snow or precipitation small. Think the biggest potential impact for snow will be between Burlington and Limon between 12 and 21 UTC, where 1 to 3 inches of total accumulation possible. Given overall poor snow growth profiles and uncertainty with precipitation placement, do not anticipate any highlights for snow at this moment. Precipitation should come to and end quickly after 00z as trough axis moves well to the east of the area and strong downward motion will overspread the area. As skies clear and winds relax, expect a chilly night with lows approaching the teens in some areas. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 113 PM MST Mon Nov 23 2020 Wednesday... An upper level ridge is expected to move over the High Plains beginning Wednesday morning bringing dry conditions to the Tri-State area. Guidance is in good agreement that the ridge will move quickly across the Plains throughout the day as our next trough system pushes across the western CONUS. Late Wednesday night, the upper level winds will shift to the SW as the trough digs into the Southwest region. At the surface a trough will develop over eastern Colorado during the afternoon hours, forming a closed low across the TX-OK panhandles and western Kansas overnight. Temperatures on Wednesday are forecasted to reach the low to middle 50s for highs and drop into the low to middle 20s for overnight lows. Thursday... The Tri-State area will continue to experience SW flow aloft through Friday as the positively-tilted upper level trough continues to move east. A cold front is expected to move across the area Thursday morning from the northwest. The timing of the front is earlier compared to the previous forecast, but the timing could still change over the next few days. If the front follows the current guidance, high temperatures could be cooler than currently expected. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there is little moisture associated with this front. The surface low and trough that formed south of the area Wednesday night is currently expected to continue east along the Kansas-Oklahoma border. As the low moves east, the models are showing an increase in moisture over the eastern half of the CWA Thursday afternoon. Despite the added moisture, the area should remain dry. The high temperatures are expected to range from the 40s to low 50s, with cooler temperatures possible depending on the cold front. Low temperatures are expected to fall back into the upper teens to mid 20s overnight. Friday... This is where it gets messy with the models. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are continuing to depict the trough finally moving over the CWA throughout the day on Friday. However, the ECMWF has a different solution with the formation of a closed low over the Four Corners region at the base of the deep trough. At the surface, high pressure is expected to move over the Central Plains, keeping the region dry through the early afternoon. During the late afternoon and evening hours, chances are currently expected to increase, mainly south of US-40, for a light rain/snow mix that becomes light snow as temperatures drop. Little to no accumulations are expected at this time. Temperatures on Friday are currently expected to range from the 40s to low 50s for highs and low 20s for lows. Saturday and Sunday... The models continue to disagree on the upper level pattern and the location of the trough. The GFS has the trough moving SE out of the area Saturday morning, followed by a ridge with surface high pressure. The ECMWF has the closed low just SW of the area near the CO-NM-TX-OK border. The ECMWF keeps the low stationary in that general area through the end of the extended period. With the models differing on the location of the trough, there is also disagreement on precipitation this weekend. The GFS keeps the area dry through the end of the period, while the ECMWF keeps precipitation mainly south of the CWA from Saturday morning through late Sunday morning. There is a window during the overnight hours Saturday into early Sunday where areas south of I-70 could see some precipitation. Due to the uncertainty with the models, the confidence in any precipitation occurring is low. For now, sticking to less than 25% for PoPs. There is a slight chance for light snow across much of the area early Saturday. As temperatures slowly climb with daytime heating Saturday, the snow could transition to a light rain/snow mix before becoming completely rain in the afternoon. We could see another transition from rain to snow during the evening hours through Sunday morning as temperatures drop and another cold front passes through the area. Precipitation chances should decrease throughout the morning from west to east before exiting the area completely around mid-day. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 50s, with lows in the 20s. Sunday will be colder due to the frontal passage, with highs only in the low to mid 40s. Low temperatures are expected to range from the mid teens to low 20s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 950 PM MST Mon Nov 23 2020 Conditions will continue to deteriorate this evening at KGLD from VFR to LIFR by 09Z. Winds will gradually transition from southwest to northwest overnight. Fog is expected to develop by 10Z with visibility down to under 1 mile at times as moisture increases in the region ahead of our next storm system. Precipitation chances will increase around 12Z with showers possible in the vicinity of the terminal. IFR conditions will deteriorate to LIFR over the next few hours at KMCK as showers begin to develop in the region. Fog is expected to develop by 09Z as moisture increases ahead of our next storm system. Visibility may be under one mile at times. Conditions will improve to IFR by 12Z with winds becoming northerly around 13kts. Ceilings will increase through the day, becoming MVFR by mid morning. Winds will increase to around 17kts with gusts to 25kts. By 23Z, VFR conditions will return with breezy north winds at 15kts gusting to 23kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && UPDATE...AW SHORT TERM...JRM LONG TERM...KMK AVIATION...AW
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Goodland KS 804 PM MST Mon Nov 23 2020 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-250315- Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas- Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock- Red Willow- 804 PM MST Mon Nov 23 2020 /904 PM CST Mon Nov 23 2020/ This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska... northwest Kansas and east central Colorado. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT... Fog will develop overnight mainly north of Interstate 70. Visibilities may fall to under one half of a mile at times due to the fog. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Precipitation will spread across the area Tuesday morning with a few rumbles of thunder possible along and south of a line extending from Sharon Springs to Norton. A cold front will sweep across the area bringing northerly winds gusting to 35 mph and will change precipitation from rain to snow through the morning and afternoon hours. Accumulating snow is possible, especially west of the Colorado state line where up to 2 inches of accumulation are expected. A brief period of freezing rain may occur in eastern Colorado in the morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Please report any reduced visibilities due to fog and any snow totals to the National Weather Service.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1002 PM MST MON NOV 23 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1001 PM DENSE FOG 1 SSE YUMA 40.11N 102.72W
11/23/2020 YUMA CO AWOS
HALF MILE VISIBILITY REPORTED.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1021 PM MST MON NOV 23 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1014 PM DENSE FOG 1 SSE YUMA 40.11N 102.72W
11/23/2020 YUMA CO AWOS
QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY REPORTED.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
The county entered D2 Severe Drought. Key impacts: vegetation more favorable for rapid fire growth, little to no soil moisture, the ground is more favorable for blowing dust.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, November 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 930006.