Tornado and Damaging Winds in Texas, November 24, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
559 PM CST Tue Nov 24 2020

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Night/

A shortwave over the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles can be seen on
water vapor imagery moving steadily eastward this evening. It is
accompanied by a surface cyclone over southwest Oklahoma, from
which a cold front and a dryline extend. The dryline as of 5 PM
stretched from Bowie to Abilene to San Angelo, with the front not
too far behind and catching up. Thunderstorms have begun to
develop along the dryline, but will remain isolated for the next
few hours with better coverage remaining north of the Red River.
However, there is an axis of better instability roughly along the
I-35 corridor, and it is likely that a marked increase in
convective coverage and intensity will occur as the dryline
encroaches on this area in a couple of hours.

Though instability will be decreasing as temperatures fall, the
presence of strong deep layer shear may allow a few severe storms
to get going with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat.
Large hail may also occur in any initial discrete cells that are
able to maintain a good rotating updraft before activity becomes
more linear in nature. Storms should quickly grow upscale into a
linear MCS while propagating through he southeast half of the CWA
tonight, maintaining a potential for a few damaging wind gusts in
bowing segments.

The line will exit our southeast zones prior to daybreak
and will be followed by much cooler and breezy conditions in the
wake of a cold front. The winds, however, should drop off
Wednesday afternoon as a surface ridge slides in from the west.
Wednesday temperatures will begin in the 40s with highs climbing
into the lower and middle 60s under sunny skies.

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&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 308 PM CST Tue Nov 24 2020/
/Thanksgiving Day-Weekend Into Early Next Week/

A dry, breezy, and warm day is expected Thanksgiving Day, as
we'll be in between systems with strong west-southwest flow aloft
with mid to high cloudiness passing across the area. Gusty south
winds 15 to 25 mph at the surface will begin the process of Gulf
moisture back northward as we await our multi-day system and wet
weather for the holiday weekend. Strong southwest flow of 25-35
knots increases Thanksgiving night in advance of the next cold
front arriving into the area early Friday morning. Brisk and
cooler conditions with highs struggling into the upper 50s and 60s
are expected as low level moisture transport socks the area in
with clouds. Isentropic ascent will increase initially across
Central Texas as a 120-140 knot sub-tropical upper jet max
advances northeast across the state from Mexico.

This will all be in advance of our closed mid level low
organizing near the Arizona/New Mexico border region and where
shower activity will be on the increase during the morning hours.
As the mid level low approaches the Southern High Plains late
Friday into Friday Night, it's going to be a brisk, chilly, wet,
and sloppy travel forecast for those planning to be on the roads
or on flights. Showers will be most widespread across Central
Texas where higher quality moisture will be present, while more
spotty activity in nature is expected as you head northward toward
I-20 and the Red River Valley. Regardless, it's not going to be
weather you're going to want to be outside in. Mid level lapse
rates will remained steepened between 6-7 deg C/Km aloft as large-
scale ascent continues to increase with some pockets of embedded
and elevated thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected, though
we may need to watch for a strong storm or two with small hail
due to the expected shear overhead.

The wet, cool, and dreary weather continues into Saturday, before
tapering off from west to east late Saturday night and Sunday,
when a reinforcing cold front arrives to keep highs in the 50s to
lower 60s in Central Texas with lows in the 40s and 50s with some
possible mid-upper 30s out west by Sunday morning as the core of
this deep low finally tracks east over the area. Though rainfall
coverage is expected to become much more spotty Sunday, it'll
remain cool. Partial sunshine by afternoon should allow southern
and western parts of the CWA to see highs creep back up into the
60s by afternoon with a few lingering showers around. So if you
had to travel home from any holiday gatherings, Sunday is the
better day versus Saturday.

A few showers may linger in the north late Sunday into Sunday
night as this system finally opens up and lifts northeast of the
area. This will pull yet another cold front into the region with
sunny, brisk, and cool conditions with highs in the 50s Monday.
The rapid transitioning late Fall/mid level pattern continues next
week, as south winds and shortwave ridging return Tuesday for a
slight warm up. Another closed low organizes across the Great
Basin and Desert Southwest by the middle of next week, but this
system will be slow evolve and move east. In addition, models are
struggling on this deep system's evolution as drops into the
southern latitudes. What's this mean for us? Seasonably cool and
dry conditions with little in the way of precipitation will
continue much of the week was we remain entrenched under a dry
northwest flow regime aloft over the Central CONUS.

05/

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

A dryline and cold front will approach from the northwest over
the next few hours. Any storms along the dryline south of the Red
River should remain low-topped and weak for another hour or two,
but should increase in coverage and intensity as they encounter
better instability farther east. We have stuck with VCTS from
02-05Z in the Metroplex TAFs, but may eventually need to add a
brief TEMPO group for thunder depending on future RADAR trends.
There could also be a couple of hours of low level (non-
convective) wind shear due to decoupling winds and a 40+ kt low
level jet through 05Z.

The likely window for TS at KACT should be 04-08Z. Winds will
shift to the west with the dryline then northwest with the front
as storms exit to the southeast well before dawn Wednesday.
Northwest winds should begin to wane Wednesday afternoon as a
surface ridge moves in. Otherwise, outside of precipitation,
conditions should remain VFR.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    46  64  43  73  55 /  40   0   0   0  20
Waco                48  66  42  75  57 /  60   0   0   0  30
Paris               45  59  38  68  51 /  70   0   0   0  20
Denton              41  64  38  72  50 /  30   0   0   0  10
McKinney            44  63  39  71  52 /  40   0   0   0  20
Dallas              48  65  45  75  57 /  40   0   0   0  20
Terrell             45  63  39  72  56 /  70   0   0   0  20
Corsicana           49  66  44  75  59 /  60   0   0   0  40
Temple              48  67  42  76  58 /  40   0   0   0  30
Mineral Wells       42  65  40  77  49 /  20   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
649 PM CST Tue Nov 24 2020

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-260100-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
649 PM CST Tue Nov 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
There is a chance of thunderstorms across much of the region
tonight. A few thunderstorms may be strong to severe, mainly along
and east of the I-35 corridor, with damaging winds being the main
threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Low thunderstorm chances will return to the region on Friday. Severe
weather is not expected during this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
711 PM CST Tue Nov 24 2020

TXZ102-250130-
Wise TX-
711 PM CST Tue Nov 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WISE COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM CST...

At 711 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Paradise, or near Bridgeport, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

 Locations impacted include...
Decatur, Bridgeport, Briar, Pecan Acres, Alvord, New Fairview,
Aurora, Boyd, Chico, Paradise, Cottondale, Boonsville, Rhome, Runaway
Bay, Newark and Lake Bridgeport.

LAT...LON 3343 9738 3299 9740 3300 9792 3343 9792
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 240DEG 49KT 3318 9770

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
720 PM CST Tue Nov 24 2020

TXZ092-250145-
Cooke TX-
720 PM CST Tue Nov 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COOKE COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM CST...

At 719 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Overbrook to near Forestburg. Movement was east
at 40 mph.

Half-inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

 Locations impacted include...
Gainesville, Muenster, Lindsay, Callisburg, Lake Kiowa, Ray Roberts
Park Johnson Branch and Valley View.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3395 9695 3342 9694 3343 9748 3392 9748
      3383 9746 3382 9738 3388 9733 3386 9734
      3389 9731 3386 9726 3392 9721 3386 9717
      3376 9719 3372 9711 3382 9705 3385 9709
      3384 9703 3395 9700
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 250DEG 35KT 3407 9714 3346 9757

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