A strong and slow moving thunderstorm caused flash flooding across Douglas County on 7/3.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TOP wrote it up.
A strong and slow moving thunderstorm caused flash flooding across Douglas County on 7/3.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 3, 11:12 AM CST, 3 hours 33 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Topeka KS 1212 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 438 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Outflow from overnight convection was able to push east of the forecast area before sunrise this morning and coverage of rain was quickly waning at the time of this update (09Z). The main question in the short-term becomes whether or not more storms will develop today. Generally, ridging aloft and weak low/mid level flow will dominate our pattern today. At the surface, we will have light easterly winds and likely some lingering cloud cover to contend with from the overnight storm complex. I am hard pressed to find any good forcing mechanism for redevelopment, however, some models, including the HRRR, insist on afternoon development. Forecast soundings suggest that we may hit our convective temperature. Wind shear will be basically non-existent but instability is expected to be around 1500 J/kg this afternoon. Given this, I can't completely rule out some pulse type storms but confidence in development is low at this time. Thus, I have maintained very low end POPs for the afternoon. Highs today are expected to warm to near 90 degrees with continued high humidity levels pushing the heat index into the mid and upper 90s. Conditions look settled overnight so have kept a dry forecast going for now. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 438 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 For the most part, conditions will be status quo into the holiday without any significant shift in the pattern. Most locations are likely to stay dry on the 4th with temperatures again near 90 degrees. The upper ridge does look to weaken a bit by Sunday but flow will stay weak and unorganized until around mid-week when high pressure establishes itself to our southeast. At that time, low level flow becomes more organized and a stronger southwesterly wind will boost temperatures. Otherwise, there still does not appear to be any noteworthy surface front or obvious mid-level wave to bring a big shift in our pattern - not unusual for July. Instead upper ridging could build back in by the end of the week and high heat will continue. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 The weak 500mb vorticity center will drift south with time this afternoon providing sufficient forcing for sct convection across the area. Low confidence on location suggests that will insert a VCTS into the forecast and try and refine as storms develop. Coverage should diminish after 3z as forcing shifts south so will remove mention after 3z. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...Teefey LONG TERM...Teefey AVIATION...Omitt
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Topeka KS 1049 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-041600- Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley- Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris- Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson- 1049 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north central and northeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Scattered thunderstorms will occur today across the area. The storms may move slowly and produce locally heavy rains with some risk for flash flooding in spots. A few storms this afternoon may also be capable of producing strong gusty winds. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && More detailed information can be accessed at... http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1254 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020
KSZ023-024-038-039-031830-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Pottawatomie-Jackson-
1254 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SHAWNEE...
NORTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE...SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND SOUTHWESTERN
JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT...
At 1253 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Delia, moving southeast at 10 mph.
Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Rossville, St. Marys, Silver Lake, Maple Hill, Belvue, Emmett, Delia
and Willard.
LAT...LON 3938 9617 3940 9594 3913 9578 3907 9593
3908 9618
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 329DEG 9KT 3927 9602
LaflinPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
232 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0231 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NNE BERRYTON 39.00N 95.62W
07/03/2020 M1.84 INCH SHAWNEE KS NWS EMPLOYEE
FELL IN 40 MINUTES.
&&
BAERGPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
237 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0234 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NE BERRYTON 38.96N 95.60W
07/03/2020 M2.20 INCH SHAWNEE KS TRAINED SPOTTER
FELL IN ONE HOUR.
&&
BAERGThe Topeka radar (KTWX), 80 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:43 UTC.
6 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Road closed at 19th and Emerald Drive due to flash flooding.
Road closed at 11th and Haskell due to flash flooding.
Road closed at 7th and Tennessee due to flash flooding.
Road closed at 6th and Vermont due to flash flooding.
Two feet of water flowing over Winter Brook Drive in Lawrence.
Flash flooding occurring at 1275 1950 Road. 1.84 inches of rain have fallen.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, July 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 911895, 911897, 911905, 911913, 911908, 911910.