Flooding in Indiana, January 10 to 29, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
350 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

WPC expanded our Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook to Slight risk
exceeding FFG, which includes all but our far southeast counties
of FA. New blended storm total forecast yields 2+ inches across
the outlook area, excepting our southeast-most 3 counties
adjacent to OHX. After collaboration with OHX/LMK/MEG..have
expanded the FFA to include the FA in entirety excepting these 3
southeast counties, where storm total forecast rainfall is less
than 2 inches.

The remainder of the short term forecast is little changed. SPC
Day 1 outlook still nips Carter, Ripley, and part of Butler
county with Slight risk SVR late tonight. Despite the late tonight
into early Saturday am time period showing the best overlay of
shear/instability with moisture/lift, the best chance of severe
still appears to be well to the south of the area. Gradient winds
continue to look sharp during this period, with gusts to 45 mph
expected. Issued FA-wide Wind Advisory to cover Friday evening
thru Saturday evening, even though western half may end up being
cancelled early as fropa occurs west to east Saturday afternoon-
evening.

There was collaborative agreement to use CONS temps/dew points
thru 12Z Sunday. This was blended/tapered some moving west to
east, to best accomodate our neighbors/per the collaborative
effort.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

After an upper level wave passes us by to the north Sunday night,
high pressure will once again dominate the weather pattern at the
start of our new week. This will lead to a dry day for Monday with
highs in the lower to middle 50s.

We are still dealing with model consistency issues for Monday night
and beyond. The latest consensus is that moisture will start
returning on Monday night ahead of an approaching front. The ECMWF
is the most aggressive with the northward push and indicates rain
chances returning to west KY as early as Monday evening. Looking at
the GFS, Canadian and GFS ensemble data, it appears the ECMWF may be
overdone. The lack of run to run consistency makes it unreliable as
well. Will continue to advertise low end PoPs for mainly western KY
for Monday night.

By the time Tuesday rolls around, the aforementioned front will be
pushing through the area and shoving any remaining moisture/QPF east
of the area. Therefore, we will linger some PoPs in the east but
mainly expecting any rainfall (if any) will be tied to the morning
hours, which will leave the afternoon dry.

Looking ahead to mid to late week, another system is still on track
to impact the area on Wednesday, although there are timing
differences that will need to continue to be worked on. However,
there is a strong signal that a strong area of high pressure will
build in across the area sometime in the Wednesday night through
Thursday time frame. Depending on how fast the colder air
infiltrates the area, we could see a changeover to some snow
Wednesday night. Long way off yet so we will just continue to
monitor the situation this week. Temperatures for Thursday will be
back to more seasonal levels, with highs only in the upper 30s to
lower 40s and lows back into the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

Showers and isolated thunderstorms moving across the Quad State,
primarily north and west of the Ohio River, will offer flight rule
restrictions mostly to KCGI and KMVN early. During the day,
overall light showers will continue but convective potential
diminishes somewhat. By evening, VCTS is carried at the terminals,
though low probability thunder cannot be completely ruled out at
other times in this forecast period. Winds will continue to be
breezy and southerly with gusts. Mean cloud ceilings will
decrease to MVFR or near IFR moving through the period.
Visibility is likely to be generally VFR with periods of MVFR
during brief moderate to heavy rain showers.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday afternoon
     for ILZ075>078-080>094.

     Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Saturday for
     ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday afternoon
     for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

     Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Saturday for
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday afternoon
     for INZ081-082-085>088.

     Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Saturday for
     INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday afternoon
     for KYZ001>016-018>020.

     Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Saturday for
     KYZ001>022.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
335 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-102145-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
335 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong and gusty south winds will gradually diminish this evening.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms over southeast Missouri,
mainly after midnight. The main hazards are locally heavy rain and
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Widespread heavy rainfall is expected Friday night and Saturday.
A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for areas along and northwest of
a line from Henderson Kentucky to Paducah Kentucky to New Madrid
Missouri. Please refer to the watch product for details.

The anticipated heavy rainfall will raise river levels. New river
Flood Warnings may be necessary, based on current forecast
rainfall.

Isolated thunderstorms are forecast Friday through Saturday. A
few thunderstorms could be severe Friday night into Saturday,
mainly over southeast Missouri and west Kentucky.

Strong south winds may gust 40 to 50 mph at times late Friday
night into Saturday. The highest gusts are expected over west
Kentucky and southwest Indiana. With the saturated soil
conditions, a few shallow rooted trees may be uprooted. A Wind
Advisory may be required Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested Friday night or Saturday.

York