Winter Weather in Georgia, February 21, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
645 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and cool high pressure will spread in from the west today and
remain over the region through the weekend. A vigorous low pressure
system will move through the Plains on Monday and the Ohio River
valley Tuesday spreading moisture back across the southeast.
Conditions will remain unsettled through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 635 am Friday: cloud cover has been slowly but surely waning
over the past few hours as sfc high pressure continues to spread
over the region. The latest IR satellite is showing some lingering
stratus over the NC Piedmont and along the NC/Tenn Border region.
An SPS for black ice remains in effect through the mid/late morning,
based on when temps are expected to warm above freezing. With winds
picking up from the north, black ice is expected to be more patchy
than widespread.

Otherwise, upper trofing will continue to move SE of the fcst area
today and tonight as broad upper ridging spreads back over the region.
At the sfc, low pressure will move farther offshore and away from
our area as an impressive 1040mb high spreads over the region from
the west. It will bring mostly clear skies and below normal temps to
the fcst area today. NLY winds will pick up thru the morning and into
the afternoon with some low-end gusts expected thru the afternoon.
Winds will taper off this evening and remain light thru early Sat.
Brisk NLY winds will keep high temperatures below normal today with
most of the non-mtn zones remaining in the low to mid-40s, and the
higher terrain remaining in the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 AM EST Friday: Dry and seasonal high pressure over the
area Saturday will slide off shore Sunday. Moisture increases in the
developing southerly flow between the departing high and low
pressure that develops in the lee of the Rockies and moves out into
the southern Plains Sunday night. This will result in chance PoP
moving into the mountains overnight. Temps will be cold enough that
snow may mix in across the highest elevations. Highs Saturday will
be near or just below normal then rising to a couple of degrees
above normal Sunday. Lows Saturday night will be 5 to 10 degrees
below normal in good radiational conditions. Lows Sunday night rise
to around 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 305 AM EST Friday: Guidance in good agreement showing the low
developing at the end of the short term moving into the mid-MS River
valley Monday, then up along or near the OH River valley to the
eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday. Deep moisture and strong forcing
move into the area as this system moves east. There could be some in-
situ damming on Monday before a triple point low or occluded front
moves into the area Tuesday. As usual with these types of systems,
shear and helicity will be high, but instability will be limited.
Although on the low side, there could be enough CAPE for
thunderstorms. Also as usual, will have to keep an eye on this as it
gets closer in time. There is better potential of QPF values ranging
from 1 to 2 inches with this system. Still too early to to know for
sure if flooding would be expected, so will have to keep an eye on
this as well. Temps near to a little below normal Monday rise to
well above normal for Tuesday.

The forecast becomes even more complicated Wednesday and Thursday
despite decent agreement in the guidance. A deep trough develops
over the the central CONUS and moves east on Wednesday as a short
wave moves through the base of the trough. The trough axis moves to
the eastern CONUS Thursday as the short wave rides up the eastern
edge of the trough. A secondary front develops with this trough,
along with strong cyclogenesis over the Upper OH River valley, as
very cold air drops into the central CONUS. The front moves east of
the area Thursday with the cold air moving in behind the front.
Expect precip chances to taper off Tuesday night but chance PoP to
return Wednesday which then tapers off again Wednesday night and
Thursday. It appears that temps will be warm enough for rain until
Wednesday afternoon and night as the cold air moves into the
mountains changing the rain to snow across the mountains. Can't rule
out some snow outside of the mountains, but it's still uncertain if
the cold air can move in before the precip ends there. NW flow snow
will linger Thursday before tapering off late in the day. Temps will
be near normal over the mountains Wednesday and above normal
elsewhere. Temps fall below normal across the area Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: most sites across the fcst area have
returned to VFR and they should remain that way thru the 12z
taf period. As the sfc low moves farther offshore, cloud cover
will continue to wane across the region, with mostly clear skies
expected thru the period. Winds are starting to pick up and are
expected to remain gusty from the N to NNE thru much of the aftn,
but should weaken during the late afternoon and remain light
tonight and early tomorrow.

Outlook: VFR conditions will continue thru the weekend. Increasing
clouds and rain chances are expected Sunday night into Monday, with
restrictions likely returning.

Confidence Table...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       High  95%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  95%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JPT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
445 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-220945-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
445 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Patchy black ice is expected this morning until temperatures warm
above freezing.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
541 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020

GAZ018-026-028-029-SCZ004-010-011-019-211500-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Greater Oconee-Anderson-Abbeville-
Greenwood-
Including the cities of Boydville, Toccoa, Royston, Gumlog,
Lavonia, Franklin Springs, Canon, Hartwell, Nuberg, Reed Creek,
Elberton, Fortsonia, Middleton, Ruckersville, Seneca, Oakway,
Anderson, Abbeville, Calhoun Falls, Ware Shoals, and Ninety Six
541 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020

...PATCHY BLACK ICE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...

Temperatures are expected to fall to around freezing by daybreak.
Any water running off or left standing from the rainfall we
received late Thursday may freeze on untreated road surfaces.
Patchy black ice can be expected, especially on secondary roads,
residential streets, and bridges and overpasses during the morning
commute today. Temperatures are expected to climb back above
freezing by 9 am.

GAZ010-017-NCZ082-SCZ001>003-005>009-012>014-211500-
Rabun-Habersham-Union NC-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-
Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City,
Cornelia, Baldwin, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Monroe,
Trinity, Indian Trail, Weddington, Mountain Rest, Walhalla,
Westminster, Pumpkintown, Tigerville, Gowensville, Cleveland,
Slater-Marietta, Easley, Dacusville, Clemson, Greenville,
Taylors, Greer, Mauldin, Fork Shoals, Simpsonville, Berea,
Spartanburg, Gaffney, Catawba, Rock Hill, Laurens, Clinton,
Union, Monarch Mills, Blackstock, Chester, Cornwell,
and Great Falls
541 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020

...PATCHY BLACK ICE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...

Below freezing temperatures will continue this morning. Any water
running off or left standing from the rain and light snow we
received late Thursday will freeze on untreated road surfaces.
Patchy black ice can be expected, especially on secondary roads,
residential streets, and bridges and overpasses during the morning
commute today. Temperatures are expected to climb back above
freezing around 10 am. The exception will be the northern part of
Rabun County, Georgia, where freezing temperatures could linger
through the late morning at higher elevations.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-502-504-506-508-510-211500-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-
Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville,
Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, Mooresville,
Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Hickory, Newton,
St. Stephens, Salisbury, Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton,
Crouse, Gastonia, Charlotte, Huntersville, Matthews, Concord,
Kannapolis, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls,
Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville,
Fero, Glenwood, Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale, Tryon,
Columbus, and Mill Spring
541 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020

...PATCHY BLACK ICE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...

Below freezing temperatures will continue this morning. Any water
running off or left standing from the rain and light snow we
received late Thursday will freeze on untreated road surfaces.
Patchy black ice can be expected, especially on secondary roads,
residential streets, and bridges and overpasses during the morning
commute today. Temperatures are expected to climb back above
freezing around 11 am.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-211500-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust,
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck,
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick,
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser,
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville,
Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin,
Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers,
Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher,
Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Jonas Ridge,
Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Chimney Rock State Park,
and Saluda
541 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020

...PATCHY BLACK ICE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...

Below freezing temperatures will continue this morning. Any water
running off or left standing from the rain and light snow we
received late Thursday will freeze on untreated road surfaces.
Patchy black ice can be expected, especially on secondary roads,
residential streets, and bridges and overpasses during the morning
commute today. Temperatures are expected to climb back above
freezing around noon or 1 pm in the mountain valleys, but will
probably stay below freezing all day above 3500 feet.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
956 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-211800-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust,
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck,
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick,
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser,
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville,
Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin,
Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers,
Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher,
Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Jonas Ridge,
Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Chimney Rock State Park,
and Saluda
956 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020

...PATCHY BLACK ICE EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...

Temperatures remain below freezing across most of the North
Carolina mountains as we head toward midday. Any water running
off or left standing from the rain and light snow we received late
Thursday has frozen on untreated road surfaces. Patchy black ice
can be expected, especially on secondary roads, residential
streets, and bridges and overpasses through the lunch rush.
Temperatures are expected to climb back above freezing around noon
or 1 pm in the mountain valleys, but will probably stay below
freezing all day above 3500 feet.

ARK