Flood and High Wind in California, March 25, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
150 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Another storm system will bring more wet weather to
the region through Thursday. Dry weather is expected Friday
through the weekend, except for a slight chance of showers on
Saturday for mainly the northern portions. Temperatures will be
several degrees below normal through Friday then warming up to
near normal this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered showers will redevelop by
later this afternoon and this evening. Otherwise, expect mostly
cloudy skies and cooler than average temperatures to continue
over much of our region. Most of the snow in the Sierra Nevada for
tonight into Wednesday morning is expected above 5,000 feet from
Yosemite southward to Fresno County where a Winter Weather
Advisory remains in effect, as several inches of snow is expected
with local amounts up to a foot possible. Rain amounts tonight
into Wednesday will be relatively light, though could become
moderate to heavy for brief periods.

Per latest satellite images, trough continues to dig off the
coast of Northern California at this time. Precipitation is
expected to gradually shift southward by Wednesday afternoon and
continue into Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible for
mainly north of Kern County in the San Joaquin Valley and the
west side hills. As the trough digs further southward and the upper-
level low passes into our portion of Central California, colder
air will arrive by Wednesday night, as snow levels could lower to
around 3,000 feet and possibly down to around 2,000 feet by
Thursday morning. Expect mainly a dusting up to around two inches
for these elevations, though snow amounts are more likely to be
at the higher end of the range at the 3,000 foot level. It appears
lighter amounts of snow will occur over the Kern County
mountains, though there is still the possibility of some
accumulating snow on the passes, such as the Grapevine and
Tehachapi Pass (or up to an inch). Otherwise, expect most of the
snow (generally several inches, though up to near one foot in some
spots) in the Sierra Nevada during late Wednesday afternoon into
early Thursday morning to fall above 4,000 feet in the Fresno and
Tulare County portions of the Sierra Nevada for Wednesday
afternoon into early Thursday morning where a Winter Weather
Advisory will also be in effect. Rainfall amounts for Thursday
will be generally light to moderate.

A drier pattern is in store by Friday, but the morning may be
quite chilly. Even Thursday morning will be much cooler than
average, as lows are forecast to fall into the mid to upper 30s
in the Central Valley on both mornings. It appears Friday morning
will be slightly cooler, as skies will be clear. A drier period
with a warming trend is expected this weekend into early next
week, with the exception of a weak upper-level low passing over
Northern California with an associated shortwave trough passing
over Central California on Saturday afternoon and evening. Thus,
have introduced some slight chance POPs for Merced County and
eastward into the Sierra Nevada for this period. The shortwave
may provide enough lift for showers in the Sierra as far south as
Tulare County.

More noticeable warming is in store for Sunday and afterward, and
temperatures will return to seasonal averages to perhaps a few
degrees above as high pressure ridging sets up. However, at this
time, how warm temperatures reach remains to be seen, as the
models show considerable differences in terms of strength of the
ridging.

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.AVIATION...Areas of IFR and mountain obscurations in the Sierra
Nevada. MVFR due to showers/ceilings in the San Joaquin Valley
with isolated thunderstorms possible, mainly at FAT, MCE, and
MER, after 18Z Wednesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
across the district the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ192.

Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday
for CAZ193-194.

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public/aviation/fire wx...BSO
PIO/IDSS...................BS

weather.gov/hanford