Wildfire in California, June 10 to 17, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
209 PM PDT Wed Jun 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...10/207 PM.

Another sunny and warm day Thursday but cooler for coast and
valleys as onshore flow returns. The cooling will continue Friday
and Saturday with the night through morning low clouds making a
return to some of the coasts. A little warmer and breezy on
Sunday and Monday. Then cooler weather expected by Tuesday and
lasting through the end of the week with plenty of night and
morning low clouds and fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...10/155 PM.

Another hot day today with many areas similar or even warmer than
yesterday. Only places within a mile or two of the beach saw any
relief today. Did manage to break at least one high temperature record
today in Santa Maria but elsewhere the records were too high due
to a big heat wave back in 1979. Onshore trends of 2mb are
generating an earlier sea breeze but the strong and very shallow
marine inversion is limiting the cooling effects of that breeze to
a small area near the coast. However, by tomorrow we're expecting
to start feeling the effects of a trough approaching from the west
that will help push that cooler air farther inland. So in all
areas except possibly the far interior areas such as the Antelope
Valley and interior SLO County temperatures Thursday should be a
good 5-10 degrees cooler. Also seeing some stratus approaching the
SLO County coast this afternoon and will likely see this expand
overnight to cover most of the coastal waters north of Pt
Conception with some dense fog moving onshore along the immediate
coast.

Thursday night an eddy is expected to develop that will help
spread low clouds across all coastal areas by Friday morning and
possibly even into the lower coastal valleys. Clouds may linger
along the beaches until well into the afternoon and highs
everywhere will drop another 5-10 degrees or so but still about 5
degrees above normal.

The trough will move inland late Friday with some northerly flow
developing behind it. Expecting to see another round of gusty
north to northwest winds across western SLO/SB Counties and
southwest winds in the Antelope Valley, possibly near advisory
levels in those areas. The winds will likely clear out the marine
layer across parts of the Central Coast and srn SB County but low
clouds expected again Saturday morning for LA/Ventura Counties.
Highs Saturday will drop slightly in most areas but again still
slightly above normal.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...10/204 PM.

Northerly flow will continue Sunday for another round of gusty
winds in the same areas. Temps will likely begin a modest climb
through early next week as heights rise but weak troughing
remains. By Tuesday and Wednesday another trough will move into
the northern Rockies increasing onshore flow to between 8-10mb
LAX-DAG. The GFS is also showing a moderate eddy circulation
developing with significant cooling in the boundary layer so if
this pans out we'll likely see a rapidly deepening marine layer
and much cooler temps, possibly even dropping below normal levels
by mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...10/1759Z.

At 1702Z at KLAX, there was a very shallow marine inversion
between 1100 and 1400 feet. The temperature at the top was 27 C.

High confidence in TAFs. VFR conditions are expected through the
period. There is a 20-30 percent chance of marine clouds in
portions of the LA coastal sections early Thursday morning.

KLAX...High confidence in CAVU TAF. Good confidence that an east
wind component will remain below 5 kt.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...10/153 PM.

Overall, moderate confidence in forecast. There is a 60% chance
of low-end Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds through tonight
over the waters along the Central Coast (at least 10 nm off the
coast). The best chance for SCA level conditions will likely
remain over the northern portion of these waters, so the SCA for
zone PZZ676 was cancelled in the morning forecast. There is a 50%
chance that low- end SCA level winds will continue through
Thursday. Later shifts may need to extend the SCA for PZZ670 and
PZZ673. Much better confidence at an 80% chance for more
widespread and stronger SCA level conditions Friday through
Sunday, potentially including the Santa Barbara Channel and the
inner waters further south. There will be a 50-60% chance of gales
during that time, especially from Point Conception to San Nicolas
Island.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory in effect until 7 PM PDT this evening for zone
      41. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED).

Gusty northerly winds may occur through canyons of southern Santa
Barbara County Saturday and Sunday evenings.

&&

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Sweet/Stewart
MARINE...Sweet
SYNOPSIS...MW

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