High Wind in California, January 26, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
344 AM PST Sun Jan 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will bring showers into parts of
the central California interior today into tonight along
with gusty winds through and below the Kern county mountain
passes. Dry weather can be expected Monday through Friday
with areas of night and morning low clouds and fog in the
San Joaquin Valley. Temperatures will average close to
normal through Tuesday. Springlike afternoon temperatures
can be expected later in the week through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A Winter morning without dense fog in the San
Joaquin Valley is a good one, and so is the case early this
morning, thanks to a cold front that is approaching from the
northwest. The cold front shows up pretty well on the latest
satellite imagery and is defined by a narrow band of showers
which is currently moving through the San Francisco Bay area.
Well in advance of this system, radar is currently showing a
speckling of light showers from Fresno county northward.

It's been 10 days since a storm system brought wet weather
into the central California interior. Unfortunately this will
be the last system to do so for at least the next 6 to 10 days.
Nonetheless, the cold front that breezes through the CWA this
afternoon will be accompanied and followed by some showers,
mainly over the eastern half of the San Joaquin Valley as well
as the foothills and mountains. Precipitation amounts will be
rather light with this feature. How light? Trace amounts to
several hundredths on the west side and in the south valley
to about a quarter of an inch on the valley's east side and
adjacent foothills from Fresno county northward. The higher
elevations of the Sierra can expect a tenth to a third of an
inch with local amounts of up to a half inch. Snow levels
will start out around 8,000 feet then lower to about 6,000
feet by this evening with accumulations of 2 to 5 inches in
the Sierra, mainly north of Kings Canyon.

The upper level trough associated with this system is shallow,
the dynamics are weak, and the upper boundary layers are not all
that cold this far south to support instability thunderstorms
this afternoon. In collaboration with neighboring WFO's and SPC,
we've decided to pull thunderstorms out of the forecast for today.
In the wake of the surface cold front, west winds will increase
below the Kern county mountain passes this afternoon and continue
into early this evening. Local wind gusts of up to 55 mph could
occur in the normally wind prone areas right below the passes.
The high resolution models forecast the strongest winds in this
region to occur primarily between 2 pm and 9 pm. Otherwise, these
downsloping winds will keep the Kern county desert dry.

Although the cold front will be well south and east of our CWA
tonight, a few showers may linger along the valley facing slopes
of the Tehachapi mountains into the predawn hours Monday. Low
stratus will otherwise blanket the west facing slopes of the
Sierra and probably the south end and much of the east side of
the San Joaquin Valley tonight into Monday morning. Hopefully the
atmosphere will remain well mixed to mitigate dense fog formation
over the remainder of the San Joaquin Valley later tonight into
Monday morning. Otherwise, Monday will turn out pretty nice with
seasonable afternoon temperatures and a good deal of sunshine in
most areas, thanks to short wave ridging aloft. Fog could develop
in the San Joaquin Valley where skies clear Monday night and
persist into Tuesday morning.

The ridge aloft will flatten over central California Tuesday as
a weak upper level trough treks through the Pacific Northwest.
Precipitation from this system will likely remain north of our
CWA Tuesday. As this trough dives into the Great Basin Tuesday
evening, it will produce a northerly flow aloft in its wake over
California. If so, it might provide enough atmospheric mixing to
keep fog development to a minimum in the San Joaquin Valley
Tuesday night. (no promises)

Night and morning fog in the valley will become more prolific
later this week through next weekend as a strong upper level
ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific builds into
California. Dense fog in the San Joaquin Valley could become
fairly widespread each night by then and certainly slow travel
for morning commuters. Outside of the San Joaquin Valley, the
weather will be nice and sunny in the 5 to 7 day period with
springlike afternoon temperatures. Thermometer readings could
jump into the 70s in the foothill and desert regions each
afternoon from Friday through Groundhog Day.

&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR ceilings with local IFR visibilities can be
expected in the San Joaquin Valley and adjacent foothills
during the next 24 hours. MVFR conditions will prevail over
the Sierra with areas of IFR and mountain obscurations in
precipitation through 12z Monday. MFVR ceilings will develop
along the north facing slopes of the Tehacahpi mountains by
21z today with areas of IFR/LIFR in precipitation through
12z Monday. Additionally, wind gusts of up to 50 knots are
likely through and below the mountain passes of Kern county
between 18z today and 12z Monday.  VFR conditions can be
expected elsewhere over the central California interior
during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Sunday January 26 2020... Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno... Kern... Kings...
Madera and Tulare Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM PST Monday for
CAZ196>199.

&&

synopsis...Durfee
public/fire wx...Durfee
aviation....JEB

weather.gov/hanford