An incoming front brought high winds to the Shasta Valley in northern California.
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The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
An incoming front brought high winds to the Shasta Valley in northern California.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 15, 2:15 PM PST, 1 hour 36 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
215 PM PST Wed Jan 15 2020
.DISCUSSION...15/12Z NAM/GFS/EC in.
...and the hits just keep on coming...
An upper trough is digging offshore due to short waves digging
down the back side of it. This trough will support a strong
surface front which will move onshore later today. The 15/12Z NAM
(15/06Z GFS) run shows a peak OTH-ACV gradient of -9.2(-10.0) mb
at 1 PM(1 PM) PST Wednesday and a peak MFR-RDD gradient of
-9.4(-10.0) at 1 PM(4 PM) PST Wednesday. These have trended up
from yesterday. High Wind Warning gusts have been recorded at the
coast, but not yet in the Shasta Valley or the east side.
This system will bring moderate to heavy snows across southern
Oregon and northern California. The heaviest snows will be in
northern California in the Marble Mountains as well as for the Mt.
Shasta Area where up to 20 inches of snow could fall in 24 hours.
Additionally, more moderate amounts of snow could fall in the
Cascades, Siskiyous, Douglas County Foothills, higher terrain
over the west side, and the Klamath Basin. Winter Weather
Advisories exist for these areas. Snow levels will generally be
2500 to 3000 feet, but in Siskiyou County, due to the south winds,
they will be closer to 2000 feet. Additionally, heavy snow is
expected in the Kalmiopsis Wilderness and the adjacent Illinois
valley if cold air gets trapped there. A Winter Storm Warning is
in effect for the Illinois Valley. The heavy snow will impact
travel, combine with wind to create limited visibilities and
possibly cause power outages.
Once the front moves inland there will be plenty of post-frontal
shower activity as the upper trough will remain just offshore
Wednesday night into Thursday. Snow levels will drop to around
2000 feet MSL this evening behind the front, and remain near that
level into Thursday morning.
The upper trough will finally move inland Thursday night and
ridge will build in from the south. That will provide a relative
break in the action, but there will still be some light shower
activity over the area. Snow levels will drop down to around 1000
feet MSL Friday morning. The break will end Saturday, when an
incoming upper level trough will drive another front will move
onshore. That will bring another round of strong winds and
precipitation, but the ensuing ridge will build in quickly, and
post frontal showers will diminish Saturday night. Overall, this
front looks weaker than today's front with regard to both winds
and precipitation.
LONG TERM...Sunday-Wednesday, January 19th-22nd...On Sunday, brief
upper ridging will set up just to the east of the area. Most areas
will be dry and milder, though some light showers could linger
along the coast.
The active pattern that we've been in for some time will continue
next week, but with some changes. Over the last week or so, we've
had most of our systems arriving in a colder north and northwest
flow. But, the flow aloft will re-orient and become more west-
southwesterly into next week. Several disturbances will develop
along the eastern extension of a strong west-central Pacific
jet (~150kt) that is forecast to reside from Japan to just north
of Hawaii and between about 30 and 40 N latitude. To the north of
the jet, a mean upper trough will be over the Gulf of Alaska. As
is often the case at this range, models have been struggling with
timing and strength of these systems, so confidence is a bit lower
than usual. However, there are a few things that are more certain.
First, snow levels will likely be higher than we've had much of the
last couple of weeks. While there will be some fluctuations up and
down, snow levels will average 4000-5000 feet, keeping most of the
accumulating snow at and above the higher passes.
Next, despite the low confidence in the details, we are expecting a
few frontal systems to move in during the Monday-Wednesday period.
We have the lowest confidence in the first of these systems on
Monday. Some guidance is showing sub-tropical moisture arriving in
advance of this system, and ultimately spinning up a pretty deep
surface low offshore. This would bring precipitation to coastal
areas and especially areas south of the OR/CA border along with
strong, gusty winds at the usual locations. Other guidance, however,
keeps the sub-tropical moisture suppressed to the south with a
weaker low heading toward Vancouver Island. We've gone with a blend
of the guidance here until a more agreed upon solution is reached.
We have more confidence in a stronger front arriving at the
coast late Monday night, then moving onshore Tuesday. So, we've
increased POPs then. Any breaks between systems will be short-lived
as yet another system is expected to arrive on Wednesday. -Spilde
&&
.AVIATION...For the 15/18Z TAF Cycle....Low level wind shear will be
the main hazard into this evening. The morning sounding at Medford
shows stronger winds aloft and they will only increase over time.
These stronger winds are expected to mix down near and at the
surface late this morning through this evening, but winds aloft will
also be significant enough to keep wind speed shear in the forecast.
Ceilings will lower again as precipitation moves into the area with
MVFR ceilings and occasional reduction in visibility in heavier
precipitation west of the Cascades. Klamath Falls should see
visibilities lower to VFR late tonight as bands of snow move in, with
ceilings lowering to VFR shortly after. -Sven
&&
.MARINE...Updated 145 PM PST Wednesday 15 Jan 2020...A series of
strong fronts will result in high to very high and steep to very
steep seas through the week.
The first of two strong fronts is moving through the waters at this
time. Storm force winds are expected by or around early evening.
With wind waves near 20 feet combining with a high tide of near 20
feet, this may bring waves into the parking lot at Port Orford, and
into the first row of the RV park at the beach in Brookings/Harbor.
Once the front pushes onshore early this evening, winds will
diminish below storm force but gales are still expected to last
through this evening. Winds will continue to diminish below gales
overnight tonight, but hazardous seas conditions are still expected
due to a combination of an increasing west swell and there is a
chance for a brief period of fresh south swell from the wind waves
that were generated ahead of todays front. Please see MWWMFR for
details on all of the hazards.
Calmer winds are expected Thursday, but seas are still likely to be
high enough to warrant at least small craft conditions, but decided
not to issue at this time due to already occurring multiple
headlines.
Another strong front is expected to impact the waters Friday
afternoon through Friday night and could bring another round of gale
force winds and hazardous seas warning conditions.
An active pattern will continue next weekend, but there is some
evidence winds and seas won't be as high. -Sven
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST Thursday for ORZ030-031.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST
Thursday for ORZ029>031.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for ORZ030-031.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for ORZ021-022.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST
Thursday for ORZ024.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST
Thursday for ORZ023.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST
Thursday for ORZ024-026.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ026.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST
Thursday for ORZ025-027-028.
CA...High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST Thursday for CAZ085.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST
Thursday for CAZ083>085.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for CAZ085.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST
Thursday above 2000 feet in the for CAZ080.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST
Thursday for CAZ082-083.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST
Thursday above 2000 feet in the for CAZ080-081.
High Wind Warning until 4 AM PST Thursday for CAZ081.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this
afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Gale Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for
PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST
Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
15/18/04The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The RAWS at Weed Airport recorded a gust to 61 mph at 15/1648 PST and a gust to 58 mph at 15/1748 PST. A PacificCorp sensor in North Weed reported gusts to 58 mph at 15/1600 PST and 15/1840 PST, and a peak gust of 59 mph at 15/1820 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in California in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in California, January 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 865396.