A low pressure system moving east across the central United States brought a rare summertime cold front into Arkansas on July 31st. A line of thunderstorms developed along this cold front and raced into the hot and unstable air mass ahead of the front through the day.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
A low pressure system moving east across the central United States brought a rare summertime cold front into Arkansas on July 31st. A line of thunderstorms developed along this cold front and raced into the hot and unstable air mass ahead of the front through the day. Damaging wind gusts accompanied these thunderstorms as they moved through southeast Arkansas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 12:18 PM CST, 1 hour 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 118 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 .UPDATE... Updated for 18Z aviation discussion && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF discussion: VFR conditions are occurring this afternoon and will continue through much of the evening. Showers and thunderstorms will affect the region this afternoon into this evening, which can bring lowered ceilings/vis. Once storms diminish, VFR conditions are expected to resume overnight. /28/ && .DISCUSSION... Mostly quiet conditions are occurring this morning but a decaying line of thunderstorms is moving across northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas. As daytime heating occurs, additional showers and thunderstorms should ignite, especially across the Delta and northwest third of the forecast area. This is all in association with a shortwave trough/developing surface low. Lapse rates are not ideal for hail so any storms that develop, thanks to a strong deep layer flow of 30 to 35 kts, will support damaging winds and even a tornado potential. Outlook has been upgraded to a slight risk for this potential this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, warm conditions can be expected for the region with highs in the 90s. /28/ Prior discussion below: Today and tonight: Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a shortwave trough dropping from the Central Plains toward the Arklatex that is progged to drop over the Low Mississippi River valley tonight into Saturday. This shortwave trough will support a surface low over the Ozarks that will lift to the northeast tonight and send a weakening cold front into our western zones after midnight. Ahead of these features our 2in PWAT airmass is expected to pool to around two and a quarter inches with mid to upper 70 dew points. Daytime heating is expected to lead to numerous coverage of convection by this afternoon over our northwest that will gradually spread southeast as a band through tonight. Isolated severe storms capable of damaging winds will be the main threat this afternoon as weak mid level lapse rates look to limit hail to a quarter inch or less. A brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Although the convection will linger through the night, the potential for severe storms will quickly wain early this evening with the loss of daytime heating. High temperatures today are expected to be held into the upper 80s due to the anticipated early start to convection while the remainder of the CWA reaches the lower 90s. Morning lows Saturday will be near normal in the lower 70s. /22/ Saturday through the upcoming week... A rare mid summer synoptic pattern will exist through the mid to long term portions of the forecast, resulting in a rare late July frontal passage, rain/storm chances, and temperatures slightly below normal this weekend with temperatures moderating and chances of storms persisting through the upcoming work week. By Saturday, a deep upper trough will exist over the MS River Valley with a surface low ejecting from the mid south into the Ohio River Valley. An attendant surface cold front extending from the exiting surface low will begin to swing into the ArkLaMiss from the West. Some showers may be ongoing along the front early on Saturday but the best coverage of storms will exist along the front during the afternoon in the eastern portions of the region as the boundary exits the ArkLaMiss. Drier air will filter into the region behind the front with isolated diurnal storms possible on Sunday. Moisture will begin to recover across the region on Monday with Pwats reaching 1.5" by Monday afternoon, 1.7"-1.9" by Tuesday and Wednesday and close to 2" by Thursday. Several weak disturbances embedded in the stagnant troughing in the upper levels will help to initiate showers and storms through the period. Highs from Monday through Friday will range from the upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the mid 60s to near 70. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 91 73 88 69 / 24 50 25 9 Meridian 93 74 90 69 / 16 18 33 11 Vicksburg 91 74 89 71 / 48 64 23 5 Hattiesburg 92 74 90 72 / 8 12 35 9 Natchez 92 74 89 71 / 29 51 25 8 Greenville 89 73 86 67 / 79 68 22 3 Greenwood 90 73 85 67 / 73 78 31 4 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && 28
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 916 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-MSZ018-019-025>030-032-034>037- 040>042-047-011430- Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland- Madison LA-Franklin LA-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll- Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Choctaw-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes- Attala-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Warren- 916 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and west central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Slight TIMING...Today through Tonight Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon and early evening. In addition, tornadoes are possible. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through tonight. LAZ024>026-MSZ031-033-038-039-043>046-048>051-053>055-059>062- 011430- Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Lowndes-Oktibbeha-Winston-Noxubee- Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton- Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln- 916 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, northeast Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Marginal TIMING...Today through Tonight Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon and early evening. In addition, a tornado can't be ruled out. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through tonight. MSZ052-056>058-063>066-072>074-011430- Lauderdale-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington- Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest- 916 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations is not expected through next Thursday. 28 && ...HAZARD LEGEND... *SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS* High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected. Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant severe weather possible. Enhanced...Severe storms expected. Slight...Severe storms possible. Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible. ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN Home page... https://www.weather.gov/jan Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe Latest Weather Briefing... https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing Tropical page... https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan National Hurricane Center Home Page... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Find NWS JAN on Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Twitter... @NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Youtube... https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES... Storm Prediction Center (SPC)... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Meso Analysis... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/ Day 1 through 3 Outlooks... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/ Storm Reports... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
127 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020
ARZ074-311900-
Ashley AR-
127 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ASHLEY COUNTY UNTIL 200 PM
CDT...
At 127 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Crossett, moving east at 40 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
North Crossett around 130 PM CDT.
Berlin around 140 PM CDT.
Hamburg around 145 PM CDT.
Parkdale and Snyder around 200 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.
&&
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southeastern Arkansas.
LAT...LON 3340 9183 3337 9149 3302 9156 3301 9179
3301 9206
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 249DEG 36KT 3310 9194
CMESpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
132 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020
LAZ007-311915-
Morehouse LA-
132 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MOREHOUSE PARISH
UNTIL 215 PM CDT...
At 131 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Beekman, or 10 miles northwest of Bastrop, moving east
at 30 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Beekman around 150 PM CDT.
Galion around 200 PM CDT.
Jones around 215 PM CDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Mer Rouge and Bonita.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.
&&
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
northeastern Louisiana.
LAT...LON 3298 9208 3299 9207 3300 9162 3274 9172
3271 9203 3271 9204 3270 9206 3273 9207
3274 9205 3276 9206 3279 9205 3282 9207
3284 9206 3287 9208 3293 9207 3296 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 250DEG 28KT 3288 9204
CMEThe Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 160 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:30 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A few trees were blown down in the Eudora area, including 3 trees in the city and 1 north of the city along AR Highway 160. One of the trees in Eudora fell onto and brought down nearby power lines.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, July 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 911708.