A long wave trough set up over the western United States with a series of short wave troughs moving over Arizona. This brought areas of heavy rain and high elevation snow.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
A long wave trough set up over the western United States with a series of short wave troughs moving over Arizona. This brought areas of heavy rain and high elevation snow.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 10, 4:02 AM MST, 3 hours 28 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 402 AM MST Tue Mar 10 2020 .SYNOPSIS...The remainder of this week will feature periods of rain and high mountain snowfall. Snow levels will remain above most high country population centers through Thursday night, before lowering into Friday. Area creeks, streams, washes and rivers will rise throughout the week. Drier by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Precipitation spread across the region early this morning. Showers have produced rain at most locations with snow levels currently around 9,000 feet msl. Under heavier showers, a couple of locations above 7,000 feet could still experience a few pellets mixed with the rain until this morning. Guidance has been limited on correctly placing the current band of precipitation, so future morning edits could be needed to account for ongoing trends. Today and Tonight...Western and southern zones will continue to see the best chances of precipitation this morning and afternoon. More widespread coverage of rain and high mountain snowfall is expected by this evening as another surge of moisture is progged to spread over northern Arizona. Only slight changes were made to QPF amounts over the next twenty four. This means generally one inch of light, stratiform rainfall is expected along and south of the Mogollon Rim by Wednesday morning. Lesser amounts towards the northeast. Current CBRFC river forecasts for creeks and rivers south of the Mogollon Rim show the potential for elevated water levels beginning late this evening and through the overnight hours. Wednesday...Another band of stratiform precipitation is expected to produce continued showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms through the daytime Wednesday. Be aware that stream levels, mainly south of the Mogollon Rim, are expected to continue to gradually rise through the day Wednesday. Wednesday night into Thursday...A short-lived, shortwave ridge is expected to build over eastern and northern Arizona Wednesday night into Thursday. Showers will continue during this period, but be much more limited in coverage. Skies could partially clear at some downslope areas in the Little Colorado River valley and closer to the Utah border. Thursday evening into Friday...The cutoff upper low will begin to move northeastward Thursday evening. The track of the low could bring the heaviest rainfall of this week from Thursday night into Friday morning. A second crest in area creeks and rivers is forecast Friday due to the additional precipitation in this period. No hydro-related products have been issued at this time for Thursday night into Friday, but could be necessary if the trend towards widespread and prolonged rainfall in this period continues. Snow levels will begin to lower Thursday night. Snow levels could dip to around 7,000 feet msl by Friday morning and bring light snowfall to high country population centers. Friday and Beyond...Showers will begin to taper Friday night into Saturday as the cut off low exits the state. Only a slight chance of showers remains in the forecast for Saturday afternoon and Sunday. Breezy winds look to develop Sunday afternoon and Monday out ahead of another potentially wet system for the beginning of the work week. && .AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect areas of light rain and high elevation snow through the period. Snow levels rising above 9000 feet msl. Occasionally moderate to heavy rainfall will occur locally this morning and again this evening. Most areas VFR despite the rainfall, with cigs bkn-ovc 4-7kft agl. In heavier showers and areas along and south of the Mogollon Rim, expect periodic MVFR and isold IFR. Sfc winds generally light. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect periods of rain, with snow above at least 9000 feet, for today and Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday...Periods of rain and high elevation snow will continue Thursday and Friday. Snow levels will slowly lower to around 7000 feet by Friday morning. Drier and slightly warmer conditions develop on Saturday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...NL AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 81 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 14:29 UTC.
1 heavy rain, 1 flash flood, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Four and a half (4.50) inches of rain fell over a four day period in Pine. Pine Creek was flowing over two low water crossings. The deepest was 10 to 18 inches on March 13.
West Clear Creek flooded and caused the closure of Verde Lakes Drive.
The Agua Fria River reached flood stage (15.8 feet) at around 500 AM after around a 12 foot rise at the Old Black Canyon Highway Bridge. Over three and a half (3.62) inches of rain fell in about 3 days. The river was above flood stage until around 4 PM.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, March 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 875567, 875566, 875568.