Thunderstorms moving across the waters of Green Bay produced seiche conditions in southeast Oconto County and northern Brown County during the evening of July 24th. Gusty winds and lake levels that started out high combined to exacerbate problems caused by the seiche.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GRB wrote it up.
Thunderstorms moving across the waters of Green Bay produced seiche conditions in southeast Oconto County and northern Brown County during the evening of July 24th. Gusty winds and lake levels that started out high combined to exacerbate problems caused by the seiche. The water level at the mouth of the Fox River in Green Bay (Brown Co.) rose more than a foot and a half during the evening.
At least one business in Little Suamico (Oconto Co.) flooded and water spilled over the breakwater in Oconto (Oconto Co.). Police in Suamico (Brown Co.) advised residents to evacuate homes on Longtail Beach Lane as water rose to impassable conditions on the roadway. High water on Duck Creek necessitated closure of a nearby road and there was flooding at Barney Williams Park in Howard (Brown Co.). Boat docks at a business on the Fox River in Green Bay broke loose and had to be redirected by the U.S. Coast Guard and the Green Bay Fire Department to keep them from hitting a ship that was docked farther downstream.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Green Bay, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 24, 5:39 PM CST, 21 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 639 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Widely scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon through early evening in the far northeastern part of the state where in an area of convergence due to terrain and lake effects, and over the higher terrain of central and northcentral Wisconsin. They should end around dusk. Skies should mostly clear overnight, with low temperatures close to normal for this time of the year. Ground fog is possible for a few hours around daybreak in river valleys and near lakes. Thursday should be mostly sunny and a degree or so warmer and dewpoints a degree or two higher. With a steady south wind, it should still be comfortable. .LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Wednesday Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Main weather features of interest include: upper-level high pressure over the southwest CONUS, subtropical upper high building west from the western Atlantic and the main band of westerlies to run across the U.S.-Canadian border in a near zonal flow. Temperatures to be mainly at or above normal into the middle of next week with an increase in humidity this weekend, followed by a decrease in humidity early next week. Main forecast challenge to be extent of precipitation chances this weekend when warmer temperatures/highest humidity values to be in place to feed storms. A cold front and associated shortwave trough are forecast to move east across the northern Plains toward the Upper MS Valley Thursday night. Ahead of these features, southwest winds will continue to bring increasing WAA and low-level moisture into WI. While the stronger lift and forcing to remain to our west through the night, the leading edge of showers/thunderstorms could reach north-central WI after midnight which was already covered by the previous forecast. Otherwise, look for a gradual increase in clouds with min temperatures primarily in the lower to middle 60s. Due to some upper ridging to the east, this cold front/shortwave trough will be slow-moving with the models showing the front only impinging on northwest WI by later Friday afternoon. Gusty south- southwest winds to continue pulling more warmth/moisture into the region with MUCAPES of 1-2K J/KG over northeast WI and 0-6km bulk shear of 25-35 knots. Stronger forcing remains to our west through the day, but increasing instability/shear would lead to a chance of showers/thunderstorms for central WI Friday morning and the rest of the forecast area Friday afternoon. A marginal risk of severe storms from SPC for north-central/central WI Friday afternoon if enough instability can be realized. Max temperatures to be around 80 degrees near Lake MI, lower to middle 80s inland. A better chance for showers/thunderstorms to arrive Friday night as the cold front/shortwave trough finally reach the western Great Lakes. A few stronger storms could continue into Friday evening before weakening as daytime heating wanes. Mild and muggy conditions can also be expected Friday night with min temperatures in the lower 60s north, middle to upper 60s south. Dew points to hold in the 60s through the night. The main question headed into Saturday will be the movement (or non-movement) of the cold front as the shortwave trough to continue tracking east across southern Ontario/northern Great Lakes. Models are showing different solutions between stalling the front over central or southern WI. As long as this boundary is in our vicinity, it would be difficult to go with a completely dry forecast. Have introduced a small pop across the area by Saturday afternoon to account for the front and instability. Shear is very weak, thus severe potential would be very low. Max temperatures on Saturday to be around 80 degrees lakeside, middle to upper 80s inland. As long as this frontal boundary remains quasi-stationary over the area, there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms (along with heavy rain). This appears to be the case through the end of the weekend, but the exact location of the boundary makes for a low confidence on where to hit the pops the highest. Some locations may be completely dry Saturday night, while everyone could see rain on Sunday. Have mentioned chance pops for both Saturday night and Sunday until this scenario becomes more clear. Temperatures to be a few degrees cooler on Sunday with readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s north/near Lake MI, lower to middle 80s south. The approach/passage of another cold front/shortwave trough will bring additional showers/thunderstorms to the region Sunday night. This system will bring slightly drier air to northeast WI for Monday, but still cannot completely rule out more showers/ thunderstorms Monday afternoon as the shortwave trough and daytime heating may set off the precipitation. Max temperatures Monday to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. We finally get a break in the rain chances Monday night through Tuesday as a weak area of high pressure pushes across the region. Max temperatures by Tuesday will cool into the lower to middle 70s north/near Lake MI, middle to upper 70s south. By the middle of next week, the upper high over the southwest CONUS to have shifted east and built northward as well into the central Rockies. Anticipate various individual shortwaves to ride along the northern periphery of the upper high and move through parts of the Great Lakes. While a few showers may be possible, do not have enough confidence to add pops to Wednesday's forecast yet. Temperatures to remain near normal through Wednesday. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 A couple of features to watch for the next couple hours. Area of convection across far northeast Wisconsin has produced a gust front that is moving south into the Fox Valley. As this front passes through, a brief wind shift to the northeast and wind gusts up to around 30 knots are possible. Have accounted for this in the KGRB TAF, and will watch to see if forecast wind conditions will need to be amended in downstream Fox Valley locations. Also watching to see if the showers/storms in NE WI will dissipate as meso models indicate. Kept VCSH in KGRB TAF, but low confidence any showers would reach west of this location. Meanwhile, isolated showers continue to linger across central WI. Expect this activity to fade away quickly with the setting sun. Overnight, clear skies and light winds are expected. Patchy fog may develop in central Wisconsin near daybreak. Tuesday afternoon, southwest winds will increase with gusts to 10 to 20 knots. There will also be an increase in high clouds through the afternoon. .KOSH... Main change to the 00Z TAF was the removal of VCSH. Still cannot completely rule out a shower this evening as showers and storms continue to drift south across far NE WI, but the atmosphere continues to stabilize with the loss of peak heating and short- term models keep the activity out of the KOSH area. Winds will be out of the southwest around 5 knots this evening. However, currently watching a gust front move down the Bay towards the KGRB TAF site. There is a possibility the gust front could hold together and result in a gusty wind shift to the northeast this evening. If this wind shift were to occur, current timing has the gust front reaching KOSH around 0130-0200Z. Overnight through Thursday morning, clear skies and light southeast winds are expected. Winds increase Thursday afternoon with gusts generally between 10 to 15 knots expected. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM.....RDM LONG TERM......Kallas AVIATION.......KLJ
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Green Bay WI 325 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-252030- Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln- Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano- Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago- Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County- Southern Oconto County- 325 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight There is a slight chance of thunderstorms across the area early this evening. The storms are not expected to be severe. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday There is a marginal risk of severe storms Friday into Friday night across central and north-central Wisconsin. Heavy rainfall is also possible with the storms. Gusty south to southwest winds and building waves may result in hazardous conditions at Lake Michigan beaches Friday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are also possible at times from Friday into Monday. There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over central Wisconsin Friday afternoon into Friday night. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main threats. It is too early to determine if the storms over the weekend would pose a severe weather threat. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed tonight. LMZ521-522-541>543-252030- The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan- 325 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake Michigan and the waters of Green Bay. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Thunderstorms may pose a hazard to boaters at times Friday night into early next week. Gusty south to southwest winds and building waves could produce hazardous conditions for small craft on Lake Michigan Friday and Friday night. RDM/AK
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
604 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0512 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 NE MARINETTE 45.10N 87.59W
07/24/2019 M44 MPH MENOMINEE MI C-MAN STATION
&&
KURIMSKIPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
606 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0512 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 NNW CHAMBERS ISLAND 45.20N 87.36W
07/24/2019 M51 MPH DOOR WI C-MAN STATION
&&
KURIMSKIPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
610 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0500 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 NNW CHAMBERS ISLAND 45.20N 87.36W
07/24/2019 M51.00 MPH DOOR WI C-MAN STATION
&&
KURIMSKISpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
637 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019
WIZ031-038>040-050-250030-
Shawano WI-Kewaunee WI-Outagamie WI-Manitowoc WI-Brown WI-
637 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019
...GUST FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWEST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...
At 634 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a gust front along a line
extending from near Gillett to 6 miles east of Pulaski to near Green
Bay to near Bay Shore Park to near Algoma. Movement was southwest at
35 mph.
Winds around 30 mph will be possible with this gust front.
Locations impacted include...
Green Bay, Appleton, Shawano, Kewaunee, Kaukauna, Little Chute,
Kimberly, Pulaski, Luxemburg and Denmark.
People at Downtown Green Bay should consider seeking safe shelter.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
winds diminish.
&&
LAT...LON 4428 8854 4449 8874 4459 8874 4459 8861
4468 8861 4468 8890 4486 8863 4485 8833
4478 8825 4468 8824 4468 8812 4463 8807
4458 8794 4459 8739 4428 8758 4424 8809
4424 8845
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 043DEG 29KT 4495 8839 4463 8809 4458 8797 4458
8779 4459 8752
AKPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
638 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0514 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 3 NNW MARINETTE 45.13N 87.64W
07/24/2019 M37.00 MPH MENOMINEE MI AWOS
&&
KURIMSKIPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
659 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0500 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 NNW CHAMBERS ISLAND 45.20N 87.36W
07/24/2019 M51.00 MPH DOOR WI C-MAN STATION
0504 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 2 ENE MARINETTE 45.10N 87.58W
07/24/2019 U0.00 MPH LMZ521 WI 911 CALL CENTER
BOAT OVERTURNED AND WASHED UP ON SHORE.
0512 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 NE MARINETTE 45.10N 87.59W
07/24/2019 M44.00 MPH MENOMINEE MI C-MAN STATION
0514 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 3 NNW MARINETTE 45.13N 87.64W
07/24/2019 M37.00 MPH MENOMINEE MI AWOS
&&
KURIMSKIThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 seiche. Local standard time, as filed.
Flooding on Green Bay impacted southern Oconto County. At least one business flooded in Little Suamico and water spilled over the breakwall in Oconto.
A seiche caused flooding on Green Bay that impacted the shoreline in northern Brown County. Residents were advised to evacuate homes on Longtail Beach Lane as water rose to impassable conditions on the roadway. High water on Duck Creek caused closure of a road and flooding of a park in Howard. Docks at a business in Green Bay broke loose and floated downstream.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 843573, 843574.