Dust Storm and Damaging Wind in Arizona, July 24, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
230 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms can be expected this
evening followed by clearing tonight. A subtle shift in the weather
pattern will result in limited thunderstorm activity the next few
days. However, an upswing in thunderstorms will return early next
week. High temperatures will also be trending upward through the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A batch of scattered showers and thunderstorms
continued to spread across parts of southeast California northward
into southern Nevada and northwest Arizona. This activity was
associated with an inverted upper level trough passing through the
state today. On the backside or eastern fringes of this trough,
showers and thunderstorms were struggling to develop across
southeast Arizona. The main activity so for this afternoon was
confined to Santa Cruz county where some locally heavy rainfall has
been observed. After today, models showed the upper high over the
Four Corners region shifting south over east-central Arizona by
Thursday and becoming centered over central AZ by the weekend.
Overall, this shift in the upper high's position over the state will
result in hotter daytime highs and somewhat limited thunderstorm
coverage the next few days. Medium range models showed the upper
high building northward and becoming centered over the Four Corners
region again early next week. This would result in an upswing in
thunderstorm activity around Monday and Tuesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 26/00Z.
Isolated to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA in the afternoon and evening
mainly to the south of KTUS but also to its east. Thunderstorms will
slowly dissipate after 25/06Z. KOLS will mainly be affected. Clouds
SCT 10k-14k ft MSL and SCT-BKN 20k ft MSL. MVFR cigs possible in
-SHRA/-TSRA. Sfc winds generally out of the E/SE at 8-12 kts with
the exception of KTUS which will see southwest winds early this
evening. Winds will become light and variable tonight. In the
vicinity of thunderstorms, winds will be much stronger with gusts
approaching 40 kts possible. Chances of thunderstorms and showers
are much lower Thursday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to Scattered thunderstorms and showers will
continue into the evening mainly to the south of Tucson and over the
White Mountains. Isolated thunderstorms are also found to the west
and east of Tucson. Slight downtick in activity Thursday with just
isolated shower/ thunderstorm coverage expected. Friday into the
weekend expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms from central Pima
County eastward. Near thunderstorms winds will be gusty and erratic.
Otherwise, 20-foot winds today will generally be from the east to
southeast mainly under 15 mph. 20-foot winds Thursday into Sunday
will be primarily terrain driven at less than 15 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
434 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2019

AZZ504-514-250015-
Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains including Mount
Lemmon/Summerhaven-Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green
Valley/Marana/Vail-
434 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM MST...

At 433 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tucson International Airport, moving north at 10 mph.

Half inch hail, wind gusts of 50 mph and blowing dust will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tucson, Marana, Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Casas Adobes, Drexel
Heights, Flowing Wells, South Tucson, Pascua Pueblo Yaqui
Reservation, Tucson Estates, Saguaro National Park West, Catalina
Foothills, Tucson International Airport, Valencia West, Summit and
San Xavier Mission.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3212 11082 3206 11103 3228 11121 3238 11088
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 160DEG 8KT 3216 11096

Carpenter