During the afternoon hours of July 24th, a few strong thunderstorms developed on the west side of the Sange de Cristo Mountains in Costilla County. This activity moved up the western slope of the range and began to heavily rain along the north and central portions of the Spring burn scar, spreading into Huerfano County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PUB wrote it up.
During the afternoon hours of July 24th, a few strong thunderstorms developed on the west side of the Sange de Cristo Mountains in Costilla County. This activity moved up the western slope of the range and began to heavily rain along the north and central portions of the Spring burn scar, spreading into Huerfano County. Wagon Creek, South Abeyta Creek, and Middle Creek were hit the hardest with washed out train tracks, and impacted roadways leaving La Veta.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 24, 10:30 AM MST, 3 hours 55 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1130 AM MDT Wed Jul 24 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed Jul 24 2019 The mountains: A monsoonal surge of moisture from the Pacific and diurnal flow will spark afternoon thunderstorms with the main QPF bullseyes over the Continental Divide. The eastern mountains will likely see isolated thunderstorms, but not nearly as wide spread as they will be over the Continental Divide. Nevertheless, this afternoon will be another day with a flash flooding risk over the Spring, Junkins, and Hayden Pass burn scars. The plains: The storms that develop over the mountains during the afternoon are not expected to propagate very far east as the day progresses. Some isolated thunderstorms will develop over the I-25 corridor, but wind shear values and CAPE values are too low for them to sustain. Over the far eastern plains, the shear and CAPE values are more conducive for stronger storms, but there is a lack of a strong enough lifting mechanism to initiate them. The isolated storms that do make it over the plains will dissipate before they can reach the better environment. The "La Junta cyclone" is expected to form over the eastern plains this afternoon, causing gusty southerly winds, with gusts up to 20 to 30 mph, near the Colorado and Kansas border. I adjusted the high temperature values down a few degrees over the plains due to the surface flow being from the east-southeast and the upper level flow predominantly being from the north. The lack of downslope flow will keep temperatures lower than if they were from the west. Expect high temperatures to be in the low to mid 90s over the plains, low to mid 80s over the mountains valleys, and the 50s to 70s over the mountains. The thunderstorms will dissipate over the mountains shortly after midnight and sooner over the I-25 corridor. The low temperatures overnight will be right around average for this time of year, with values in the mid 60s over the plains, the low 50s over the mountain valleys, and the 30s to 40s over the mountains. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed Jul 24 2019 ...Most active thunderstorm days Thursday and Sunday with elevated potential for localized flash flooding... Active monsoon plume will continue to cycle moisture up into CO on Thursday as shortwave energy off the Pacific rides over the top of the upper high across the northern U.S. Rockies into the northern and central plains. Showers will be ongoing Thursday morning across western areas with the former feature. A cold front will drop through the plains during the day with easterly upslope flow expected by the afternoon. Dew point return may be a little lagging, but with values still in the 50s, suspect CAPE values will be around 1000-1500 J/kg or better. Thunderstorm chances will ramp up again for the mountains and plains with the potential for flash flooding, especially along the eastern slopes of the southeast mountains and I-25 corridor. Burn scars will be particularly susceptible. Drier air works in from the north on Friday which suppresses the moisture plume across the southern and southwest portions of the area. Still could see some locally heavy rainfall with thunderstorms, but should see less coverage across northern portions of the area where atmosphere dries out a bit. There are some discrepancies in the models with NAM holding on to more low level moisture than GFS and EC across the Upper Arkansas and Pikes Peak region. Haven't strayed too far from model blend pops which lean on the high side...but overall trend should be slightly less coverage. Meanwhile, temperatures rebound from Thursday's slight cool down. Thunderstorm chances will ramp up again across the mountains for Saturday as another shortwave trof moves across bringing another uptick in moisture and lift. This will send another front through the plains with cooler temperatures and the potential for moist upslope flow for Sunday suggesting the potential for another active thunderstorm day for the southeast mountains and plains depending on the position of the front and amount of moisture return. Flash flood risk will be elevated once again. The upper high meanders back north and eastward across the 4 corners region through early next week. Monday and Tuesday look drier and warmer across the region, particularly western areas on Monday as H7 temperatures climb to +20C. This spreads eastward for Tuesday with guidance suggesting temperatures may climb back to around 100 across the plains again. Still sufficient moisture embedded in the upper high for thunderstorms over the mountains each day with the atmosphere moistening back up again towards next Wednesday when pops will increase. -KT && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1126 AM MDT Wed Jul 24 2019 VFR conditions expected at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Thunderstorms will develop over the mountains again this afternoon, with a few storms drifting toward lower elevations late in the day. Have included a VCTS at KALS and KCOS 22z-03z as a few storms move off the mountains, though strongest convection should stay mainly to the west of both sites. Risk of a vcts looks too low to mention at KPUB. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...SKELLY AVIATION...PETERSEN
Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1222 PM MDT Wed Jul 24 2019 COZ058>089-093>099-251745- Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet- Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet- Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet- Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet- Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet- Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Alamosa Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Southern San Luis Valley- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet- Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet- Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between 7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet- Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County- Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Feet- Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet- Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet- Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet- Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County- Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County- Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County- Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County- 1222 PM MDT Wed Jul 24 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east central...south central and southeast Colorado. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Afternoon thunderstorms will develop over the mountains, with isolated thunderstorms over the I-25 corridor late in the day. The main storm threat today will be locally heavy rainfall, which may cause flash flooding over the Spring, Junkins, and Hayden Pass burn scars. A few of the stronger storms may also produce small hail, frequent lightning and gusty winds to 45 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will develop over the mountains each day, with thunderstorms spreading into the adjacent plains at times during the late afternoon and evening. The most active days for thunderstorms will be Thursday and Sunday, especially for the southeast mountains and plains. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rain, dangerous cloud to ground lightning, small hail, and gusty outflow winds each day. Any heavy rainfall which falls on burn scars could cause localized flash flooding. The risk for flash flooding will be greatest on Thursday and Sunday when easterly upslope flow will bring the threat of more widespread and potentially more intense thunderstorm development for the southeast mountains and plains. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be possible across the mountains and I-25 corridor this afternoon and evening. 10/31
The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 131 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:25 UTC.
4 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Huerfano County Emergency Manager reported flooding along South Abeyta Creek and CR 442.
Costilla County Emergency Manager reported some of the railroad tracks for the Rio Grande Scenic Rail Road have been washed out near Fir.
Deep moving water across CR 440.
Middle Creek has over topped its banks with water flowing across CR 430.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 848169, 848170, 848171, 848172.