Showers and storms developed along the edge of a weakening region of high pressure. A couple of the storms increased to severe levels, producing damaging winds.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
Showers and storms developed along the edge of a weakening region of high pressure. A couple of the storms increased to severe levels, producing damaging winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 30, 1:53 PM EST, 47 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 253 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weakening wedge of high pressure will linger over region before giving way to very warm temperatures again by midweek. A cold front will then move through late Thursday with much cooler conditions expected into the weekend, though little in the way of rainfall will accompany the front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Monday... Visible satellite imagery shows that the wedge has eroded from both the east and west with effects lingering mostly just east of the Blue Ridge. Radar trends show that convection has initialized in the west with best heating and destabilization, while some other showers/thunder are exiting to the east following a departing short wave. Anticipate an isolated cell or two may try to get a bit rowdy through early this evening west of the Ridge, but expect convection will dissipate with loss of heating this evening/early tonight. The lingering wedge will then allow for development of low clouds and some fog overnight. Tuesday may play out much the same as today, though coverage of showers/storms looks to be less with the best chance form the Grayson Highlands into the mountains of NC. Lows tonight will be mild with generally be in the mid/upper 60s. Highs tomorrow will generally be in the mid to upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 110 PM EDT Monday... The upper level ridge bringing warm conditions during this period will continue to transition across Tennesse going into Wednesday, eventually locating itself over the Carolinas for Thursday. 850mb temperatures are still running warm with current guidance, meaning surface temperatures are going to be running roughly 15 degrees above average. As previously stated, we are going to be watching Wednesday and Thursday for another round of record breaking temperatures. Hard to decide on whether or not to add some very small pops Wednesday afternoon for some of the mountains where perhaps enough heating could produce an isolated storm or two, but going to hold off for now on updating grids to reflect this since the pop would be very minimal. A much anticipated cool down is on the way for the weekend: the census is still leading toward a frontal passage later Thursday to Thursday night. As previously mentioned, the heat will still be on before this front for Thursday afternoon. The only negative note with this front will be the lacking convection with it. Rain chances look best for isolated to scattered showers and storms west of the Blue Ridge, with minimal to slim chances for areas east. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 110 PM EDT Monday... After the front Thursday, high pressure returns as we wedge in for Friday and Saturday. This will certainly bring the "Fall Feels" as the cool down remains on track to be nearly 20 degrees cooler from our recent heat. PWAT amounts start to recover and increase Sunday as rain chances start to increase along the edge of the then weakening wedge. From there, our next big frontal system steps into play with increasing pops Monday with a lifting warm front moving through the area, followed up by a strong cold front passage MOnday into Monday night. Confidence in exact details with this part of the forecast will obviously increase as we get closer in time. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Monday... Generally VFR conditions are expected across the region with some thunder in the vicinity, mainly west of the Blue Ridge. Will monitor radar trends and amend for prevailing conditions as necessary. The lingering wedge of high pressure will allow for low stratus to develop overnight, while locations further west outside of the wedge will see clear conditions give way to stratus and fog due to radiational cooling. Expect IFR/LIFR conditions by daybreak due to cigs/vsbys all sites except for KBLF where the station elevation should keep the airfield above the stratus and fog. Anticipate gradual improvement to VFR all sites toward the end of the valid period, with some isolated showers/thunderstorms possible again mainly west of the Blue Ridge Tuesday afternoon. Winds will generally be light with little impact to aircraft operations. .Extended Aviation Discussion... High pressure aloft will build across the region through mid week, with a transition back to mainly dry VFR conditions. There will be the normal early morning fog/stratus in the mountain valleys...confined to the 4AM-9AM time frame, otherwise no significant weather threats until a strong cold front arrives late in the week. This cold front looks to cross the region from the northwest by Friday with an ensuing wind shift and possible periods of MVFR in showers along the boundary. High pressure follows with another wedge and possible associated sub-VFR conditions within lower cigs on Friday. && .CLIMATE... The heat returns regionwide for Wednesday and Thursday. Here are the numbers to beat for mid week... Wednesday 10/02/2019 Site MaxT Year HiMin Year KBLF 87 1919 64 1986 KDAN 92 1986 68 1971 KLYH 88 1905 68 1898 KROA 88 1919 67 1971 KRNK 85 1953 60 1986 Thursday 10/03/2019 Site MaxT Year HiMin Year KBLF 84 1919 66 1941 KDAN 93 1919 69 2012 KLYH 94 1919 72 1898 KROA 91 1919 68 1941 KRNK 86 1954 63 1954 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...RR/RCS LONG TERM...RR/MBS AVIATION...MBS/PM CLIMATE...RCS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 434 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019 VAZ007-009>013-WVZ042>044-507-508-010845- Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Mercer-Summers-Monroe- Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- 434 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms producing localized damaging winds and hail could occur this afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ014>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-010845- Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes- Yadkin-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath- Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry- Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte- 434 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia and west central Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. RCS
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA 303 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019 VAZ019-020-023-024-301945- Bath-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Alleghany- 303 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ALLEGHANY...SOUTHWESTERN BATH...WEST CENTRAL ROCKBRIDGE AND NORTH CENTRAL BOTETOURT COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA... At 303 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Ingalls Field, or near Hot Springs, moving southeast at 20 mph. Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Clifton Forge... Millboro... Hot Springs... Warm Springs... Iron Gate... Douthat State Park... and Glen Wilton. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. LAT...LON 3792 8005 3807 7983 3789 7943 3766 7983 TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 310DEG 17KT 3795 7986 PW
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
307 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019
NCZ002-003-VAZ015-301945-
Surry-Alleghany-Grayson-
307 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTHEASTERN ALLEGHANY...NORTHWESTERN SURRY COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN GRAYSON COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA...
At 307 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Baywood, or
near Galax, moving southeast at 15 mph.
Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Galax...
Ennice...
Bottom...
Baywood...
Low Gap...
Cumberland Knob...
and Barrett.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
LAT...LON 3666 8108 3669 8099 3666 8095 3665 8094
3664 8092 3663 8093 3663 8091 3660 8087
3656 8084 3656 8082 3649 8072 3642 8099
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 322DEG 15KT 3664 8101
PWSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
311 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019
VAZ018-022-302000-
Craig-Roanoke-
311 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
ROANOKE...AND SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG COUNTIES...THE CITY OF SALEM AND THE
CITY OF ROANOKE...
At 310 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Catawba, moving
southeast at 20 mph.
Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Roanoke...
Salem...
Vinton...
Catawba...
Bent Mountain...
Abbott...
and Glenvar.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
LAT...LON 3743 8007 3741 8006 3739 8002 3729 7985
3725 7985 3717 8002 3717 8003 3716 8008
3716 8009 3712 8012 3712 8014 3721 8019
3723 8019 3726 8022 3738 8028 3746 8013
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 323DEG 19KT 3736 8016
PWThe Roanoke radar (KFCX), 83 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:42 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds blew two trees down near the intersection of Hayes Gap Road and Pitzer Ridge Road. Damage values are estimated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, September 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 857306.