Hail in Nebraska, September 30, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
710 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019

The surface cold will be positioned just southeast of the
forecast area by 00Z this evening. Modest instability will be n
place near and just north of the front with sufficient 0-3km shear
of 45-50kts. Deep layer forcing will increase quickly in the
evening as a low level jet develops and increases convergence
along north of the front.

Scattered thunderstorms should develop quickly, within an
environment marginally supportive for isolated strong to severe
storms. The area of concern will be south of an Imperial through
North Platte to Ewing line. Isolated damaging wind gusts and some
hail possible. Storms look to transition to elevated showers and
thunderstorms with a modest mid level lapse rates near 7 C/km.
POPs increase into the likely category most areas by late evening
and remain so overnight.

Additional concerns regard the potential for heavy rain with
storms lifting northeast away from the boundary. Though the
heaviest rainfall looks to fall south and east of the local CWA,
training storms are possible with total rain amounts of up to
1.0" possible tonight through Tuesday. Heaviest rainfall amounts
across the southeast were lowered from the previous forecast.

Lows tonight will generally range from near 40 northwest Sandhills
to near 50 far southeast.

Highs Tuesday will be much below normal for early October from
about 25 degrees below normal northwest (mid to upper 40s) to 15
degrees below normal south (mid 50s).

On Tuesday, an upper trough positioned across the Intermountain
West in tandem with an upper ridge over the Southeast U.S., will
provide southwesterly flow aloft and persistent isentropic
upglide. Skies will remain overcast Tuesday, with categorical POPs
in central Nebraska during the morning and likely POPs over much
of the remaining area. Additional rainfall amounts could reach a
quarter to half inch across southeastern areas.

Shower chances increase to likely again Tuesday night as the
base of the upper trough swings through Wyoming and western
Colorado. Even with the colder air, wet bulb temperature remain
above 35 degrees in Sheridan and nw Cherry County. Thus, expecting
all precipitation to fall as rain with no travel impacts aside
from wet surfaces. Lows will range from the mid to upper 30s in
the northwest to mid 40s southeast. No potential for frost during
this time given moist low levels and overcast skies.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019

A good chance for morning showers Wednesday morning, ending in the
afternoon. Mainly cloudy skies, to see some return sunshine
southwestern areas in the afternoon. High again much below normal
from near 50 northeast to near 60 far southwest.

Clear skies and surface high pressure near 1028mb will settle over
western Nebraska Wednesday night. Overnight lows upper 20s to
lower 30s west of Valentine through Ogallala to mid 30s further
east. It looks probable for the first frost/freeze for the growing
season, at least across our west.

Dry conditions Thursday and Friday, as upper ridging crosses the
region. Highs return to the upper 50s to mid 60s Thursday and the
60s to near 70 Friday. A chance for showers Friday night into
Saturday as an upper trough crosses the Northern Plains.
Temperature remain slightly below normal in the low to mid 60s
Saturday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening then
rain showers are possible through the day. IFR conditions are
expected after midnight. Winds will increase overnight and remain
breezy during the day across southwest Nebraska.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Gomez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
253 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-012000-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
253 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019 /153 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

Showers and thunderstorm chances increase this evening. There is
a marginal risk for strong to severe thunderstorms south and east
of a line from Imperial to Ewing where any storms will be capable
of producing large hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the day on
Tuesday. At this time, the threat for severe weather remains low.

There is a chance for some patchy/areas of frost across portions
of western and northwest Nebraska Thursday morning. Low
temperatures across the northwest Sandhills will fall into the
upper 20s, while western Nebraska will be in the lower to mid 30s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Thorne

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
732 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019

NEZ038-010100-
Custer NE-
732 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CUSTER COUNTY UNTIL
800 PM CDT...

At 731 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Eddyville, or 20 miles north of Lexington, moving north at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Broken Bow, Ansley, Mason City, Berwyn, Westerville, Buckeye, Pressey
State Wildlife Management Area, Burr Oak, Intersection of Highway 183
and Cumro Road and Cumro.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 77 and 98.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 278 and 302.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 300 and 307.

LAT...LON 4104 9944 4105 9978 4106 9978 4150 9962
      4134 9920 4130 9920
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 200DEG 47KT 4106 9960

Gomez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
735 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019

NEZ059-070-010100-
Hayes NE-Lincoln NE-
735 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND
NORTHWESTERN HAYES COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 735 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hayes Center, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hayes Center, Wellfleet, Dickens, Marengo and Hayes Center State
Wildlife Management Area.

This includes Highway 83 between mile markers 57 and 58.

LAT...LON 4042 10110 4050 10129 4090 10106 4077 10071
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 211DEG 50KT 4053 10114

Gomez