While large scale forcing was weak, moderate amounts of instability combined with local terrain circulations and remnant mesoscale boundaries to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. With steep low level lapse rates, a few of these storms became strong to locally severe.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
While large scale forcing was weak, moderate amounts of instability combined with local terrain circulations and remnant mesoscale boundaries to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. With steep low level lapse rates, a few of these storms became strong to locally severe.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 28, 1:50 PM EST, 2 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 250 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move offshore through this weekend. A cold front will push south through the area Sunday before high pressure returns for Monday. A weak front may approach the area during the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A cluster of cumulus was capable of developing before noon in the northern Shenandoah Valley. In spite of this, convection overall this afternoon has been struggling locally. A band of thunderstorms has been prevalent from ROA-AKQ, where instability stronger and lapse rates steeper. That said, instability parameters still respectable, especially near/south of DC- Woodstock, and CAMs still suggesting the scattered thunderstorm development anticipated mid-late afternoon. If that does transpire, flow minimal so storms should be capable of substantive vertical development. Thus, the threats remain the same as analyzed this morning...for localized wet microbursts and isolated flooding from slow moving storms. Did trim PoPs slightly, placing the emphasis on Virginia. Since there is a diurnal component to this activity, have a downward trend to precip after dark, ending by midnight. Persistence will be the temperature forecast for tonight with patchy fog and lows in the 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Flow will become westerly Saturday as high pressure moves offshore and a backdoor cold front drops across New York/Pennsylvania. While the local area appears capped at first, dropping heights, better shear, available instability, and a focusing mechanism will provide the necessary ingredients for a more organized convective threat to the north of Maryland. The risk locally would be timing this activity as it drops south of the Mason-Dixon line. The SPC Day 2 outlook has upgraded the Baltimore- Washington area to Slight Risk, which appears warranted based on the magnitude of the variables stated above. Have forecast isolated PoPs during the afternoon (as anything could develop given the inherent heat/instability), but then increasing precip chances through the evening as the front drops south. Without widespread convection/cloud cover, believe we will have a better chance at daytime heating, and have raised high temperatures by a degree...which would place highs in the mid 90s. However, with dewpoints in the mid 60s, heat index values would still remain under Advisory criteria. As low pressure deepens over New England, the cold front will sink south of the area Sunday. Features are subtle, but it appears as though enough dry air (dewpoints lower 60s vs mid 60s) will become entrained to limit precip potential. Will back forecast off to slight chance thunderstorms in the afternoon, with dry conditions north of Martinsburg-Washington DC. Temperatures will also be a category lower too...with highs around 90F. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will briefly build over our region Monday through Tuesday afternoon. Winds will become light mainly out of the north. Temperatures will be cooler on Monday in the mid to upper 80s and will trend upwards on Tuesday into the upper 80s into the mid 90s. A backdoor cold front will drop down into our region sometime Tuesday into Wednesday and is forecast to stall near our region through Friday. This boundary could combine with warm and moist conditions to provide enough instability to kick off storms and showers Tuesday through Thursday. The exact position of this boundary will determine where the optimal areas for showers and thunderstorms to form. There is a general warming trend through this period which suggest we could have another period of 90 degree plus weather. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Scattered storm development will be possible this afternoon again, with reduced visibility in heavy rain and gusty/erratic outflow. TAFs still include VCTS mention, as low coverage/confidence in specific preclude anything higher. Patchy fog could occur again tonight, especially in climo favored area. Have a few hours of MVFR fog at CHO/MRB. Will need to see afternoon/evening convective trends to determine anything more specific. Thunderstorm development may be more limited Saturday daytime, though one still can't be ruled out. Early evening may be the favored time for a storm based on whatever drops south from Pennsylvania. With the front pushing south on Sunday, the best chance for an isolated storm will be near CHO. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Skies are expected to remain mostly clear Monday and Tuesday with light winds. Some showers and thunderstorms will be potential late Tuesday. VFR conditions expected at this time. && .MARINE... Light prevailing winds will continue with potential for onshore breezes this afternoon. A few thunderstorms with gusty outflow may also near the waters by late afternoon/early evening. By Saturday, westerlies will increase flow still appears too light to support Small Craft Advisory conditions. There will also be thunderstorm potential...more likely in the evening vs. afternoon, although cannot completely rule out an afternoon storm given inherent heat/instability. A cold front will push through Sunday and stronger northwest flow may require an advisory for portions of the waters. Winds will be light on Monday over the waters but a brief period of 18 kt plus gust will be possible early on Monday. Stronger winds will be possible Tuesday afternoon as mixing taps into stronger winds aloft. Small Craft Advisories may be needed Monday morning and again on Tuesday. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...ADS NEAR TERM...HTS SHORT TERM...HTS LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...HTS/JMG MARINE...HTS/JMG
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 159 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-291800- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Southeast Harford- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George- 159 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and adjacent counties in central Maryland and northern Virginia as well as the District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms will be developing this afternoon and evening. A couple of thunderstorms may contain localized damaging wind gusts or large hail. In addition, isolated instances of flooding will be possible if thunderstorms linger over a specific neighborhood. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Scattered showers and thunderstorms may produce isolated damaging wind gusts or hail Saturday afternoon and evening. In addition, thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall resulting in isolated instances of flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Please report any severe weather or flooding to the National Weather Service via normal procedures. MDZ003>006-501>507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501>508-WVZ050>053- 055-501>506-291800- Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke- Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant- Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 159 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland with the exception of Garrett County. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms will be developing this afternoon and evening. A couple of thunderstorms may contain localized damaging wind gusts or large hail. In addition, isolated instances of flooding will be possible if thunderstorms linger over a specific neighborhood. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Scattered showers and thunderstorms may produce isolated damaging wind gusts Saturday afternoon and evening. In addition, thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall resulting in isolated instances of flooding, especially near and north of Highway 50. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Please report any severe weather or flooding to the National Weather Service via normal procedures. DHOF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1207 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0619 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S FRANCONIA 38.75N 77.15W
06/27/2019 FAIRFAX VA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ON OLD TELEGRAPH ROAD NEAR PINEY RUN DRIVE.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX1904870
JMGPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
435 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0345 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S ROSEDALE 39.31N 76.51W
06/28/2019 BALTIMORE MD 911 CALL CENTER
MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN THE ROSEDALE AREA, INCLUDING ONE
ONTO A HOUSE.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX1904871
DHThe Roanoke radar (KFCX), 157 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:56 UTC.
10 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Dozens of trees were blown down in the vicinity of US-29 in western Nelson County.
Several trees were blown down on Old Robert's Road.
Multiple large trees were blown down in the 100 block of Downing Circle. A stop sign was also blown down. Trees were blown down along Harmon Place.
Several trees were blown down in the area of Remount Road near Slate Hill Drive.
A tree was blown down blocking a road in the Scottsville area.
Several trees were blown down along F.T. Valley Road.
Several trees were blown down along Richmond Road.
Several trees were blown down in the Slate Mills area.
A tree was blown down in the 10600 block of Hume Road.
Several trees and wires were blown down along Garth Run Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, June 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 834451, 834452, 834453, 834455, 834459, 834463, 834464, 834465, 834468, 834470.