Scattered severe thunderstorms along a cold front produced damaging winds across portions of Central Virginia.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AKQ wrote it up.
Scattered severe thunderstorms along a cold front produced damaging winds across portions of Central Virginia.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 1, 2:55 PM EST, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 355 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will settle into the region through this evening, eventually becoming stalled and lingering over the region for the latter part of the week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 240 PM EDT Thursday... The latest VIS/WV imagery depicts trough axis over the Ern Conus beneath an upper low over north-central QB. Sub-tropical ridge remains wrn Atlantic this aftn. At the surface, quasi- stationary front is located over S NJ down into N VA, extending ssw to the wrn slopes of the central Appalachians. To the southeast, sct showers and storms have re-fired along lingering surface trough over the Carolina coastal plain, and this should remain a focal point for convection through early evening. Meanwhile, to the north, iso to widely scattered showers/tstms have kicked up from the upper eastern shore of the DelMarVa back into SE PA/S NC just ahead of the front. CAMs continue to show sct activity spreading south across the lower eastern shore this aftn, with SE VA/NC isolated convection propagating back w/nw along seabreeze to the I-95/I-85 counties in south central and southwestern tier of the local area. In each case, 30-40 PoPs have been maintained for scattered storms through the evening. Most showers/tstms will be rather disorganized, given weak flow through much of the troposphere. However, the 200mb flow is ~50kt, so stronger updrafts could briefly organize and produce isolated areas of heavy rain, but the overall flooding threat remains quite low. The chc for showers/tstms lingers into tonight. A bit milder with some patchy fog possible toward dawn with lows ~ 70-75F. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 315 PM EDT Thursday... Unsettled conditions continue Friday and Saturday, as the upper trough lingers over the region, with the ridge offshore, and the frontal boundary partially washing out and lingering over the local area. The boundary will continue to serve as a focal point for scattered/numerous showers & storms, mainly during the late aftn/evening. However, tstms will be loosely organized and hence any flooding concerns will be limited. PoPs are generally 30-40% toward the coast, and ~60% inland. Mostly cloudy Friday with primarily onshore flow and highs in the low/mid 80s. A very similar setup expected through the weekend, with the quasi-stationary front lingering over coastal locations as the upper trough remains aligned just to the west. 40-60% PoPs for aftn/evening convection continue along with some localized heavy rain on Saturday, with 40-50% PoPs maintained for Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall would be the primary hazard due to gradually increasing PW values and weak steering. However, still not expecting widespread heavy rain due to weak steering/shear values. Increased cloud cover and moisture will keep highs in the low to mid 80s after morning lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 355 PM EDT Thursday... Model guidance diverges to begin the extended forecast period with the GFS continuing to show a surface low and associated higher chances for showers and storms vs the drier ECMWF and Canadian models for Sunday night and Monday. Given the continued uncertainty and lack of model agreement, will advertise chance PoPs across the south and west Sunday night and area-wide on Monday afternoon as weak troughing remains over the eastern third of the country. A bit drier pattern in store for Tuesday and Wednesday as flow aloft briefly becomes more zonal, however, will keep PoPs near 20-30% range pending better model agreement. As is typical for the heart of summer in the Mid Atlantic, chances for widespread severe weather appear to be quite low but isolated instances of strong to severe winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning could accompany any of the stronger thunderstorms cores that do form. Temperatures in the extended forecast period will be close to climatological norms for early August. Daytime highs will top out in the mid and upper 80s on Monday and Tuesday and will inch up into the low 90s on Wednesday, slightly cooler each day near the coast. Overnight low temperatures will range from the upper 60s across the Piedmont to the low/mid 70s near the coast and along the Eastern Shore. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 240 PM EDT Thursday... A weak, wavy front to the w-nw of the local area will drop farther south across the region into this evening. VFR conditions across area terminals will prevail, with brief MVFR/IFR vsby in any showers/tstms this aftn and evening. An unsettled pattern will continue through the weekend, as the frontal boundary becomes stalled over the region Friday through Monday. A daily chc of (mainly) diurnally-driven showers/tstms is expected, with occasional flight restrictions to occur in any showers/tstms. There is also the potential for some patchy early morning fog/stratus Friday through Monday morning as low- level moisture gradually increases. && .MARINE... As of 355 PM EDT Thursday... No headlines in the short term tonight thru Sat. A weak frontal boundary just north of the waters late this aftn, will drift down across the area tonight into Fri morning. ESE winds 5-10 kt late this aftn, will become more SE everywhere tonight, then turn to the ESE again Fri morning. Then from Fri thru Mon, expect variable winds around 10 kt or less over the waters, with seas 2-3 ft and waves on the Ches Bay of 1-2 ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM LONG TERM...RHR AVIATION...AJZ/MAM MARINE...JDM/TMG
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wakefield VA 341 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 NCZ012>016-030>032-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079>083-087>090-092-093- 096-509>522-021945- Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Bertie-Chowan- Perquimans-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline- Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Brunswick-Dinwiddie- Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Greensville-Sussex-Surry- James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Suffolk-Western Louisa- Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield- Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- 341 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Localized heavy rain is possible in any thunderstorms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon and evening. Localized heavy rain is possible in any thunderstorms. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ021>025-NCZ017-102-VAZ075>078-084>086-095-097>100-523>525-021945- Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches- Western Currituck-Eastern Currituck-Westmoreland-Richmond- Northumberland-Lancaster-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews- Norfolk/Portsmouth-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-Accomack-Northampton- York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson- 341 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast North Carolina, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the late afternoon and evening hours. Any thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon and evening. Localized heavy rain is possible in any thunderstorms. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. 05
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
140 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0615 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 E ERICA 38.11N 76.63W
07/31/2019 WESTMORELAND VA PUBLIC
MULTIPLE TREES DOWNED/SPLIT DUE TO WIND.
ESTIMATED 50-60 MPH.
&&
05Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
414 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019
VAZ081-514-012045-
Prince George-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
414 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019
...A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
CHESTERFIELD AND NORTHWESTERN PRINCE GEORGE COUNTIES...THE CITY OF
COLONIAL HEIGHTS...THE CITY OF HOPEWELL AND THE CITY OF PETERSBURG...
At 413 PM EDT, a thunderstorm with heavy rain was located over
Colonial Heights, moving southeast at 15 mph.
Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph and heavy downpours are possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Petersburg, Hopewell, Colonial Heights, Virginia State University,
Chester, Fort Lee, Prince George, Ettrick, Matoaca, Birchett Estate,
Jordan Point Country Club, Petersburg National Battlefield, New
Bohemia, Richard Bland College and Meadowville.
LAT...LON 3738 7736 3738 7731 3736 7731 3734 7727
3732 7727 3731 7724 3721 7715 3715 7740
3717 7740 3716 7742 3718 7742 3719 7745
3721 7744 3722 7745 3723 7747 3734 7753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 335DEG 12KT 3729 7739
44Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
419 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019
VAZ513-012045-
Western Chesterfield-
419 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019
...A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT WESTERN CHESTERFIELD
COUNTY...
At 419 PM EDT, a thunderstorm with heavy rain was located over
Moseley, moving southeast at 5 mph.
Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph and localy heavy downpours are
possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Moseley, Skinquarter, Beach and Winterpock.
LAT...LON 3749 7768 3735 7754 3733 7757 3729 7770
3730 7771 3728 7772 3728 7774 3727 7776
3729 7777 3731 7781 3733 7780 3734 7785
3739 7787 3740 7787
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 334DEG 5KT 3739 7775
44Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Wakefield VA 443 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 VAZ513>516-012115- Western Chesterfield-Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- 443 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 ...A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CHESTERFIELD AND SOUTH CENTRAL HENRICO COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF RICHMOND... At 443 PM EDT, a thunderstorm with heavy rain was located over Richmond, moving southeast at 5 mph. Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph and locally heavy downpours are possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Richmond, Downtown Richmond, Virginia Commonwealth University, Bon Air, Bensley, Bellwood, Chesterfield Court House, Chesterfield, Richmond Heights, Varina, Drewrys Bluff and Montrose. LAT...LON 3752 7759 3756 7743 3743 7732 3736 7753 TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 324DEG 6KT 3749 7748 44
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Wakefield VA 447 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 VAZ513>516-012115- Western Chesterfield-Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- 447 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 ...A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CHESTERFIELD AND SOUTH CENTRAL HENRICO COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF RICHMOND... At 447 PM EDT, a thunderstorm with heavy rain was located over Richmond, moving southeast at 5 mph. Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph, half inch hail and heavy downpours are possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Richmond, Downtown Richmond, Virginia Commonwealth University, Bon Air, Bensley, Bellwood, Chesterfield Court House, Chesterfield, Richmond Heights, Varina, Drewrys Bluff and Montrose. Strong wind gusts are possible with this storm. These wind gusts are capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other light outdoor objects. LAT...LON 3752 7759 3756 7743 3743 7732 3736 7753 TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 324DEG 6KT 3748 7746 44
The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 77 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:02 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A couple of trees were downed.
Trees were downed on Route 33 in Louisa county at Foxwood.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, August 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 848593, 848595.