Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed in a moist, unstable environment during peak heating. Storms initially fired along differential heating boundaries, transitioning into multi-cell clusters with time.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed in a moist, unstable environment during peak heating. Storms initially fired along differential heating boundaries, transitioning into multi-cell clusters with time. Several of the storms produced localized wind damage across central North Carolina.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 1, 1:40 PM EST, 8 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 240 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will become nearly stationary across the central Appalachians and middle Atlantic states through the weekend, keeping afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. The upper-trough deepens a bit early next week, allowing numerous impulses to pass through the region, elongating our active and wet weather pattern. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 140 PM Thursday... Latest surface analysis depicts a quasi-stationary from draped generally SW to NE along the spine of the Appalachians, with a weakly defined lee-side trough positioned in similar orientation in the vicinity of the US-1 corridor. Aloft, broad scale troughing persists across the eastern CONUS, with a decaying shortwave depicted well on GOES EAST water vapor imagery sliding east into the Atlantic Ocean. In its wake, substantial clearing has commenced across the eastern foothills and western Piedmont counties, allowing modest destablization to occur. As of 17z, mesoanalysis depicts broad scale SFC based CAPE values in the 2500 - 3000 J/KG, ML CAPE approaching 2000 - 2500 J/KG, and DCAPE values between 800 - 1000 J/KG across central NC. A bit more capping in place today compared to yesterday, but it likely won't be enough to inhibit storm initiation by mid to late afternoon, especially with near 8*C/KM low-level lapse rates evident across central NC. As a result, have backed initiation time off by an hour or so, with initial cells likely going up across the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge Mountains before slowly propagating east into the Triad region. Other possible initialization points include the seabreeze front slowly progressing inland off the Atlantic, the Piedmont/lee side trough from SW to NE, and any remnant outflow boundaries from yesterday's ample convective coverage. With little in the way of mid to upper-level support, not expecting much in the way of organized convection this afternoon, however, a few strong multicellular storms capable of producing heavy rainfall, sub-severe hail, and isolated wind gusts will still be possible. The primary threat, like yesterday, remains locally heavy rainfall which could lead to pockets of flash flooding. With steering flow generally 15 - 20kts, cold pool propagation will be the primary drivers of convection this evening, with some back building possible. Some low- level boundary layer moistening has lead higher PWAT values (1.5 to 1.8 inches) and surface dewpoints, increasing the threat of locally heavy rainfall with any slow moving storms that do form. Lastly, with higher n-cape values this evening, the lightning in the storms may also be a bit more robust. Storm coverage decreases during the overnight hours. Temperatures are still on track to top out in the upper 80s (northwest) to lower 90s across central NC. Overnight, mid to upper- level clouds will remain a bit more dense, with some low-level stratus and fog possible. Overnight lows will bottom out in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 PM Thursday... Central NC will remain in the action zone situated between the broad scale upper trough draped across the eastern CONUS and the Bermuda high off the Atlantic Coast. This will continue the gradual surface warming and moistening trend across central NC, helping to inch up surface dewpoints, especially along and east of US-1. This will help to enhance our shower thunderstorm coverage on Friday afternoon, even with a bit more overhead cloud cover in play attempting to limit the diurnal destabilization processes. Even so, scattered shower and thunderstorms are expected to form across central NC, primarily along any leftover differential heating/outflow boundaries related to Thursday's convection, along with additional scattered formation in terrain/sea breeze favored areas. Primary threat remains the possibility of excessive rainfall which could lead to pockets of flash flooding, with an isolated severe wind gust threat. Temperatures are progged to be 4 to 8 degrees cooler on Friday, in the low to mid 80s, thanks to the persistent overhead cloud deck. Overnight lows will remain seasonable, bottoming out in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 325 AM Thursday... A nearly stationary front will combine with the residual mid/upper level trough over the region to bring mainly diurnally driven convection through the weekend. Some locally heavy rain threat will continue given the high PW's and expected slow movement of the thunderstorms. Lows 68-73, Highs in the mid 80s to near 90. The EC is a bit faster in pushing the trough axis to eastern NC early next week. This will gradually lower the chance of showers and thunderstorms by Tuesday and Wednesday. We will trend that way, but keep a chance of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday. Lows generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s, highs in the 85-90 range. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1240 PM Thursday... VFR conditions continue across all of the central NC terminals this morning, and should persist through the majority of the period through this evening. The one temporary exception would be related to possible shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening, which will likely cause at least temporary drops in category due to heavy rainfall rates decreasing CIGs/VSBYs values. With generally airmass type thunderstorms anticipated, have trended with including VCTS at all TAF sites, relying on tempo groups to showcase time of most likely occurrence. In general, best thunder chances will be between 20z/4pm and 23z/7pm this evening, but isolated showers and storms could persist into the overnight hours. Some at least isolated fog/stratus formation will be possible again pre-dawn Friday, but highly dependent on how the storm activity takes shape later on today. For now, have left mention of VFR CIGs/VSBYs in at KINT/KGSO/KRWI between 09z/5am - 13z/9am with some lingers sub-VFR CIGs possible at the Triad Terminals. Conditions should slowly improve by mid morning, but confidence here remains low. Looking beyond 18z Friday, the stormy pattern should continue well into next week. This will leave us in a daily pattern of early- morning sub-VFR fog/stratus, along with high shower/storm chances each afternoon and evening at minimum. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...JJM NEAR TERM...JJM SHORT TERM...JJM LONG TERM...BSD/Badgett AVIATION...JJM
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 411 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-020815- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance- Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake- Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson- Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 411 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with frequent lightning, gusty wind to 50 mph, and locally heavy rain are expected over central North Carolina this afternoon into the evening. Urban and poor drainage flooding may result from the thunderstorms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected again Friday and Saturday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Locally heavy rain and frequent lightning are the expected main hazards with the slow moving thunderstorms.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
232 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019
NCZ041-011915-
Wake NC-
232 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL WAKE COUNTY UNTIL 315 PM
EDT...
At 231 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Raleigh, moving southeast at 15 mph.
Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm. The
weather sensor at RDU has recently measured a 36kt gust.
Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Cary, Garner, Rdu International, Morrisville, Knightdale,
Research Triangle and William B Umstead State Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3583 7839 3565 7859 3586 7885 3587 7884
3587 7883 3588 7883 3592 7878 3592 7876
3593 7875 3594 7873 3598 7871
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 307DEG 12KT 3585 7871
MORROWThe Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 20 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:50 UTC.
8 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Two trees were blown down on Ward Road near Patrick Road, resulting in power outages. A tree also fell onto utility equipment near the intersection of East Whitaker Mill Road and Wake Forest Road.
Several trees were blown down along Friar Tuck Road, a few of which damaged power lines and a fence.
One tree was blown down across Bryant Road, temporarily blocking it.
A few trees were blown down blocking roadways in the Thomasville area.
Multiple trees were blown down and a roof was blown off a barn near the intersection of Canton Road and Austin Road.
A possible downburst resulted in damage to several mobile homes near Lake Townsend.
A couple of trees were blown down south of Vass, one on power lines near Lakebay Road and Youngs Road and another near the intersection of Furr Road and Pine Drive.
One tree was blown down at the intersection of West Florida Street and South Holden Road.
Heavy rain resulted in flash flooding in southwest areas of Greensboro. Several vehicles went under water and a couple of water rescues were needed at West Wendover Avenue and Big Tree Way. Several vehicles were also under water at Guilford College Road and Interstate 73 North. Additionally, South Buffalo Creek near Pomona and Merritt Street rose above flood stage around 9:25 PM and remained in flood until approximately 11:10 PM.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, August 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 850344, 850345, 850346, 850347, 850348, 850349, 850350, 850351, 850343.