Excessive runoff into the Ottawa River Basin in Canada through the early half of the summer restricted the outlet of Lake Ontario. This combined with above normal precipitation into the Lake Ontario Basin, record levels on the Great Lakes above Lake Ontario, and higher than normal flows into the lake from the Niagara River pushed the lake to well above normal levels.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BUF wrote it up.
Excessive runoff into the Ottawa River Basin in Canada through the early half of the summer restricted the outlet of Lake Ontario. This combined with above normal precipitation into the Lake Ontario Basin, record levels on the Great Lakes above Lake Ontario, and higher than normal flows into the lake from the Niagara River pushed the lake to well above normal levels. Over the course of August, while ongoing precipitation gradually started to seasonally decrease, and outgoing flows through the Moses Saunders Dam increased, it took the majority of month before the lake finally decreased below 4 feet above low water datum and flooding along the lakeshore finally subsided.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 9:34 PM EST, 2 hours 26 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1034 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Expansive high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will build eastward across our region during the remainder of the week. This will support dry weather along with comfortable humidity levels and near normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... A large area of high pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes will be our dominant weather feature through Thursday. Given subsidence from this surface high and an increasingly dry airmass... we can look forward to generally starlit skies and relatively comfortable conditions tonight for sleeping. The only issue for the overnight will be the likelihood for some dense fog in the valleys. Light winds and residual low level moisture will combine with relatively 'warm' streams to once again promote fog for the overnight. Mins tonight will range from the mid 50s across much of the Southern Tier and North Country to about 60 along the lake shores. Thursday will then feature glorious conditions across our region... as the aforementioned surface high will supply us with abundant sunshine along with comfortable humidity levels. Max temps Thursday will be very close to 30 year normals...ranging from the 70s across the elevated terrain to the lower 80s across much of the lake plains. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The benign pattern will continue through the weekend with mainly dry weather in most areas with a few minor exceptions. Surface high pressure will drift slowly east across the central and eastern Great Lakes Thursday night through Friday night before weakening in place Saturday. Associated dry air and subsidence will maintain dry weather in most areas through the period. Expect a good deal of sunshine both Friday and Saturday. Some river valley fog will develop once again across the Southern Tier late Thursday night into Friday morning. The one possible exception to dry weather may be across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier both Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon. Marginal instability will develop with daytime heating on both days as somewhat deeper moisture over central PA advects slowly northward. This may allow a few isolated showers or a thunderstorm to develop across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier Friday afternoon, and again Saturday afternoon. If these do materialize, coverage will be sparse. Temperatures will be within a few degrees of average through the period. Highs Friday will be in the lower 80s at lower elevations and mid to upper 70s higher terrain. Highs Saturday will be a degree or two warmer. Lows Thursday night will range from around 60 at the lakeshores to the low to mid 50s interior sections. Lows Friday night will range from the low 60s on the lake plains to the mid to upper 50s farther inland. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mainly rain free weather is expected to continue for Sunday through Monday, with a better chance for some rain/thunder arriving by Tuesday or Wednesday. Mean upper level troughing will remain in place over the Northeast states through the middle of next week, which will keep our heights aloft in check, not allowing for any extreme high temperatures. This will also keep deeper GOMEX moisture locked up across the Deep South. A weak cold front will be in the process of slowly pushing through the southern half of NYS early Sunday, eventually stalling out somewhere across northern PA/northern OH late Sunday into Sunday night as high pressure then builds back across the area from the north. As instability increases with heating, there will be the chance for an isolated shower or storm across the inland Southern Tier Sunday afternoon/early evening. Otherwise, the high will keep things dry for Sunday night and Monday. Monday night, the now stationary boundary to the south/southwest of NYS will slowly edge back to the northeast as a warm front. This front in conjunction with a shortwave moving over the region will bring the just the slight chance for a shower or storm as these two features move east across the region overnight. Models then diverge heading into the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe with regards to timing of the next cold frontal passage. Canadian tries to bring the cold front through late Monday night/Tuesday, meanwhile the GFS/ECMWF bring the front across the area more toward mid week, with the latter being the more plausible solution. Moisture will increase for Tuesday into Wednesday as well, as we will be firmly in the warm sector behind the warm front that crossed the area Monday night. Deeper moisture combined with diurnal instability will bring in the chance for some isolated showers and storms on Tuesday afternoon/evening. The main upper trough/surface cold front will then cross the area Wednesday with a better chance for showers and storms. Again, this is per the GFS/ECMWF solutions. Will cap PoPs at high chc being this far out in time. With regards to temperatures, slightly below normal values Sunday will trend to near normal for Monday through Wednesday. Specifically, high temperatures will range from the mid to upper 70s behind the cold front on Sunday. Highs Monday through Wednesday will be near average, with highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Overnight lows will range from the mid and upper 50s to around 60 on Sunday night, to the low and mid 60s Monday and Tuesday night. Humidity levels will remain tolerable Sunday and Monday with dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s. It will become a touch more sticky Tuesday and Wednesday as dew points rise into the lower and mid 60s. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions will be in place tonight....although fog and low stratus is expected to develop across parts of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region after 08z. This will lead to LIFR conditions at sites like KJHW and KELZ. After the areas of fog and stratus in the Southern Tier burn off/mix out by 14z Thursday morning...abundant sunshine and wall to wall VFR conditions are anticipated. Outlook... Friday through Monday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Expansive high pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes will slowly build eastward across the Lower Lakes region through Friday. This will keep winds and waves well below small craft advisory levels through the end of the week. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...Fries/JJR/RSH NEAR TERM...RSH SHORT TERM...Hitchcock LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...RSH MARINE...Fries/JJR
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 716 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-011130- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua- Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie- 716 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-011130- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 716 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
7 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, August 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 868188, 868189, 868190, 868191, 868192, 868193, 868194.