High Wind in Texas, February 23, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
952 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated mainly to lower dewpoints in the dry sector of the
southwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Have lowered dewpoints (and humidity) in the southwest given the
significant drying beginning to move into the area. Even with this
update, the RH generally stays above 20 percent as the highs are
only expected to be in the lower 60s so RFTI still maxes out in
the "near-critical" range. ERC (Energy Release Component) values
show fuels are near median, so the Fire Danger Statement still
looks good as opposed to a Red Flag Warning, but will watch if
conditions become more significant through the day down there.

More complex situation in the northwest where we will be at the
edge of the rain-snow transition zone. In general, it still seems
like we should be just enough on the warm side to be primarily
rain, although some mix with snow is certainly possible in the far
northwest (mainly Harper County). Right now the probability of
significant winter impacts is low enough that will keep what we
have, but will be watching the temperatures and the character of
the deformation zone up there and update later today if needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 545 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019/

DISCUSSION...
The 12Z aviation discussion follows....

AVIATION...
A very strong storm system will bring strong winds to the region
today. The widespread very low ceilings, along with areas of fog,
will be replaced by clearing skies (except in far northern
Oklahoma) and strong southwest to west winds this morning. A few
showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of the dryline this
morning, but after 12Z, the only TAF site likely to be affected by
this precipitation will be KPNC. As the dry air pours in from the
west, winds will gust to 30 to 40 kt at most sites, and some
blowing dust is expected this afternoon in southwest Oklahoma and
adjacent parts of Texas. A cold front will sweep rapidly southeast
across Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon and early evening,
switching the winds to northwest, and bringing a few hours of
lower ceilings (probably 2,000 to 5,000 ft AGL) with it (across
central and northern Oklahoma). Winds will subside gradually
tonight.

CmS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Main concerns revolve around today with rain/storm chances and extreme
wind speeds.

Upper low will rotate northeast out of southern New Mexico this
morning and across the southern Plains today. As this occurs there
will be a period of showers and thunderstorms through the early
part of the day. Limited instability will preclude the potential
for any severe weather.

Otherwise, the main impact for today will be the winds. Deeper
mixing that will develop rather quickly this morning, along with
deepening surface low will result in very strong winds across
Oklahoma and western north Texas today. Some wind gusts to 60 mph
look to be possible across parts of western and southwestern
Oklahoma and western north Texas from late morning through the
afternoon hours. Therefore will maintain High Wind Warning for
these areas with Wind Advisory for much of the remainder of
Oklahoma through 6 pm this afternoon.

These strong winds and drier air moving into the area will elevate
fire weather concerns. However, moisture from earlier in the day
and lower ERC-G values will limit the potential for significant
wildfire threat. Will issue a Fire Danger Statement for much of
southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Still appears that a bit of a rain/snow mix could occur across
far northwest Oklahoma this afternoon, but currently does not
appear to be a significant impact at this time.

Winds will diminish rather quickly across western sections of the
area around sunset, but may be a bit slower farther east into
central and north-central Oklahoma. However, does appear that
liklihood of needing to extend Wind Advisory remains rather low.

Much quieter weather expected Sunday with much lighter winds.
Further into the upcoming work week, uncertainties remain with
regards to timing and strength of multiple cold fronts that are
expected to impact the area. First of these fronts is expected
sometime Tuesday into early Wednesday depending on model. There is
a slight chance to see some light post-frontal precip as we go
through Wednesday into Thursday. Some of this could fall as light
freezing rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  61  28  53  32 /  40   0   0   0
Hobart OK         58  25  55  31 /  20   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  63  30  58  34 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           48  21  53  29 /  70   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     58  27  50  26 /  60   0   0   0
Durant OK         67  33  57  33 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ004>008-010>013-
     015-017>020-024>032-039>043-045>047-050-051.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ009-014-016-
     021>023-033>038-044.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
959 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-241600-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
959 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Strong Winds...
Strong southwest winds have developed across much of Oklahoma and
western north Texas this morning. The strongest winds are
expected across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas, where
gusts may reach 60 mph. Elsewhere, wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph will
be possible. The winds will also gradually shift to the west and
then northwest during the afternoon hours before diminishing this
evening. The strong winds will make driving difficult and displace
light weight objects.

.Fire Weather...
Very strong winds and low humidities today will create elevated
to near-critical fire weather conditions across western north
Texas as well as southern and parts of central Oklahoma.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Winter Weather...
There is a chance for light freezing rain across parts of
northern into central Oklahoma Wednesday night into Thursday
morning.

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Mahale